In the quest to find great investments, most investors focus on earnings to gauge a company's financial strength. This is a good start, but earnings can be misleading and incomplete. To get a clearer understanding of a company's ability to earn money and reward you, the shareholder, it's often better to focus on cash flow. In this series, we tear apart a company's cash flow statement to see how much money is truly being earned and, more importantly, what management is doing with that cash.
Step on up, Ball
The first step in analyzing cash flow is to look at net income. Ball's net income over the last five years has been impressive:
|
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Net Income | $438 million | $449 million | $326 million | $296 million | $295 million |
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Next we add back in a few non-cash expenses, like the depreciation of assets, and adjust net income for changes in inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable -- changes in cash levels that reflect a company either paying its bills, or being paid by customers. This yields a figure called "cash from operating activities" -- the amount of cash a company generates from doing everyday business.
From there we subtract capital expenditures, or the amount a company spends acquiring or fixing physical assets. This yields one version of a figure called "free cash flow," or the true amount of cash a company has left over for its investors after doing business:
|
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | $505 million | $265 million | $402 million | $343 million | $365 million |
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Now we know how much cash Ball is really pulling in each year. Next question: What is it doing with that cash?
There are two ways a company can use free cash flow to directly reward shareholders: dividends and share repurchases. Cash not returned to shareholders can be stashed in the bank, invested in other companies and assets, or used to pay off debt.
Here's how much Ball has returned to shareholders in recent years:
|
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends | $46 million | $36 million | $37 million | $38 million | $41 million |
| Share Repurchases | $513 million | $554 million | $37 million | $327 million | $258 million |
| Total Returned to Shareholders | $559 million | $590 million | $74 million | $364 million | $298 million |
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
As you can see, the company has repurchased a decent amount of its own stock. That's caused shares outstanding to fall:
|
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shares Outstanding (millions) | 165 | 181 | 188 | 192 | 202 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Now, companies tend to be fairly poor at repurchasing their own shares, buying feverishly when shares are expensive and backing away when they're cheap. Does Ball fall into this trap? Let's take a look:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Not too bad. Ball's buybacks ramped up in recent years as its share price rose, but that was likely due to an increase in free cash flow, not a rise in management exuberance. Given reasonable valuations, these buybacks have likely been a good deal for shareholders.
Finally, I like to look at how dividends have added to total shareholder returns:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Shares returned 73% over the last five years, which increases to 80% with dividends reinvested -- a nice boost to top off already high performance.
To gauge how well a company is doing, keep an eye on the cash. How much a company earns is not as important as how much cash is actually coming in the door, and how much cash is coming in the door isn't as important as what management actually does with that cash. Remember, you, the shareholder, own the company. Are you happy with the way management has used Ball's cash? Sound off in the comment section below.
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