Just as we examine companies each week that may be rising past their fair value, we can also find companies potentially trading at bargain prices. While many investors would rather have nothing to do with companies tipping the scales at 52-week lows, I think it makes a lot of sense to determine whether the market has overreacted to the downside, just as we often do when the market reacts to the upside.
Here's a look at three fallen angels trading near their 52-week lows that could be worth buying.
The final frontier
Please forgive my cheesy Star Trek subhead, but Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK) is going to new frontiers in its Mexican mines and is delivering for shareholders in a big way without receiving any respect.
Endeavour reported its fourth-quarter and full-year results two weeks ago and, due to an internal feeding system error at its Guanacevi mine, was forced to restate production modestly lower for the year. Tack that on top of its lowered production guidance at El Cubo, a production-stage mine it purchased from AuRico Gold for $250 million, and it's easy to see why Endeavour's had its share of problems.
Despite the restatement, Endeavour delivered its eighth-straight year of production growth, with silver production rising 20% and gold production advancing a robust 77%. As a more silver-dependent company, the spot price of silver matters most, and it was down 13% over the previous year. Consider, however, that a rebound in the tech industry, which seems imminent based on Intel's capital expenditures forecast, will cause demand for silver (and prices) to improve.
Another factor you can't ignore is El Cubo, which had already been showing favorable increases in ore grade prior to Endeavour's purchase from AuRico, according to my Foolish colleague Christopher Barker. With Endeavour focused on development expansion at El Cubo, I'm pretty much estimating we'll see silver-equivalent production jump from 6.4 million ounces in 2012 to somewhere in the 7.5 million area in 2013. At less than eight times forward earnings, it's easy to see the allure of Endeavour.
A bitumen a day keeps the losses away
Every once in a while I throw out a riskier play than normal, and this is one of them: Pengrowth Energy (NYSE: PGH).
Pengrowth is a Canadian oil and gas driller that's recently shelved its dividend reinvesting program (but maintained its dividend), cut its production modestly, and has dealt with higher costs as a result of higher-than-expected power prices and maintenance costs. These results have definitely discouraged investors, but I'm not deterred one bit.
Pengrowth has made it abundantly clear that it's focusing all of its efforts on its Lindbergh thermal bitumen project. It may not seem like a great idea to place all of its eggs in one basket, but it's actually a smarter move than you'd think. Bitumen, a solid or semi-solid form of petroleum, has significantly more stable pricing over the long term than natural gas. Focusing on bitumen recovery, as well as other liquids, Pengrowth can project with decent accuracy its funds from operation.
Also, Pengrowth made it quite clear that not only does it intend to continue paying shareholders a $0.04 monthly dividend (a current yield north of 10%, may I add), but it'll divest itself of non-core assets. Smaller exploration and production plays often overwhelm themselves by spreading their resources too thin. This move will improve Pengrowth's capital position and keep the company focused on Lindbergh. Let's not forget, as well, that the company's projection of $680 million in funds from operations, when coupled with its asset sales, should be more than enough to cover its capital expenditures budget of $770 million and its dividend in 2013 while also making it profitable.
It may not be painfully obvious, but Pengrowth appears worth the gamble here.
A retail leader
I've been waiting for a great entry point to get in on women's accessories provider Coach (NYSE:TPR), and last week's assault on shares following its second-quarter results has provided just that.
Coach's North American sales were the primary drag, advancing just 1% as same-store sales in brick-and-mortar stores dropped 2%. Higher levels of competition combined with lots of promotional activity from its peers proved to be too much. But as I stated yesterday, this is a business model that sets the trend and is far from broken.
The first aspect worth noting relates to Coach standing its ground on its pricing strategy. Rather than caving into discounts and potentially harming its long-term premium brand image, it stuck to its guns and, I feel, differentiated its brand from competitors even more.
Second, the overall trend for brand-name merchandise remains strong worldwide. Michael Kors and Coach are perfect examples of this trend. Both Kors and Coach have found incredible growth stability overseas amid a weak global growth environment because consumers are craving the luxury of a brand name at a reasonable price. Coach's and Kors' products aren't priced in the four-digit category, making them affordable luxury for many consumers.
Finally, Coach understands where its growth markets are and has focused on expanding into Asia. Sales in China grew by a whopping 40% in the most recent quarter.
This is a leading retailer, not a follower, and now is the perfect time to dig deeper into Coach.
This week it's all about demonstrating that these three business models are far from broken. Given the right circumstances, all look like potential doubles from their current valuation.