Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of offshore drilling rig owner Transocean (NYSE:RIG) jumped as much as 12.5% today higher as oil prices jumped.
So what: The price of WTI crude spiked from a day low of $54.21 per barrel to $58.98 after the Federal Reserve said it would be "patient" raising interest rates. This is seen by traders as a bullish sign for the economy because easy monetary policy means low-cost capital for companies to expand their businesses.
But the price bump didn't last long, and oil finished around $55 per barrel at the end of trading.
Now what: Stocks with exposure to oil have become very volatile lately, and today was a great example of that. Oil prices will pop or plunge based on the recent news from OPEC, the Fed, or any number of sources. Long term, the market is still oversupplied, and it will take time to sort out who will cut production, when, and how low the price of oil will go.
I think Transocean is well positioned if oil recovers, but it's a high risk/reward investment at the moment. On the flip side, if oil stays low for the next five years, the demand for offshore rigs could plummet. But today's pop is just noise if you have a long-term vision, and investors shouldn't change their investment theses just because the Fed got investors excited for a few hours of trading.