Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) jumped 15.3% Tuesday, after the restaurant chain announced better-than-expected first-quarter earnings.
So what: Quarterly revenue climbed 16% year over year to $394.9 million, helped by both new restaurant openings and a 3.1% increase in comparable-restaurant sales. That translated to a 34.1% increase in adjusted earnings to $1.10 per diluted share. Analysts, on average, were anticipating slightly higher revenue of $395.5 million, but significantly lower earnings of $0.88 per share.
"Our solid first-quarter results are a testament to the excellent performance of our restaurant team members combined with Red Robin's food and beverage innovation," elaborated Red Robin CEO Steve Carley. "Our initiatives are enabling us to continue taking market share including our Brand Transformation remodels which are generating even stronger guest satisfaction scores."
Now what: For the full fiscal year 2015, Red Robin expects revenue growth of 12% to 12.5%. That includes comparable-store sales growth of 2.5% to 3%, as well as the positive contribution from roughly 20 new Red Robin restaurants and five Red Robin Burger Works locations. Wall Street was modeling 2015 revenue growth of 12.6%.
That said, it's no surprise the market is overlooking Red Robin's soft revenue outlook, especially considering its solid bottom-line beat to start the year. Shares of Red Robin might not look particularly cheap trading at over 37 times trailing 12-month earnings, and 23 times next year's estimates. But if it can continue growing earnings at its current healthy pace, Red Robin stock should continue to reward patient investors going forward.
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