Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) has been one of the hottest blue chip stocks on the market this year, leading all stocks on the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a 38% gain this year, compared to a 3% decline for the closely watched index.
The world's largest sports brand eclipsed a $100 billion market value for the first time ever, and looks as strong as it's ever been, coming off a stellar earnings report that included a 14% uptick in currency-neutral revenue and a 23% jump in earnings per share.
At its bi-annual investor conference last week, Nike dropped another big number that should ensure the stock's continued growth over the coming years. The Swoosh gave itself a target of $50 billion in revenue by fiscal 2020, up from $30.6 billion fiscal 2015, which ended in May. That translates into a compound annual growth rate of 10%.
Though that may seem like a bold prediction for a mature company like Nike, in 2013 it outlined a similar goal of $36 billion in revenue by fiscal 2017, which it is now on track to exceed. Let's take a closer look at some of the key opportunities Nike outlined in its plan to add $20 billion in sales over the next five years.
It's no secret that e-commerce is one of the biggest opportunities in retail today. Sales through the online channel are growing by about 15% a year in the U.S., well outpacing growth through physical retail.
Nike refers to its direct-to-consumer strategy as "Integrated Marketplace," which brings together a number of different channels including mobile, online, and its Nike in-line and factory stores, which connect consumers to different categories at different price points. Over the last three years, sales growth at Nike.com has accelerated from 26% to 56% thanks to a "dramatic improvement in experience" with the proliferation of programs like Nike ID, which allows customers to design their own shoes.
All of Nike's US stores are now digitally connected, and it's in the process of giving its European stores the same capabilities. This month, Nike is making online shopping available in countries like Canada, Switzerland, and Norway, and it expects improvements in its platform and global availability to bring online sales from just over $1 billion today to $7 billion. Overall, it sees direct-to-consumer sales, which include its stores, growing from $6.5 billion in fiscal 2015 to $16 billion in fiscal 2020.
As the success of Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) has made clear, the women's market has been an underserved segment in sports apparel, and Nike is going full speed ahead targeting the fairer sex.
Nike began opening Women's concept stores this year in London, Shanghai, San Francisco, and Newport Beach, Calif, and expects its women's business to nearly double over the next five years, growing from $5.7 billion to $11 billion.
Women's sportswear sneakers is a particularly strong opportunity for the company. On the strength of the Sky Hi Dunk, Nike now has six $100 million franchises in women's footwear styles, and it plans to take a big jump into this space by making its iconic Jordan brand available for women. The move is a risky one, as it could dilute a logo that's been one of the hottest sellers on the secondary market for years, but it could also unlock another significant revenue stream as the success of the Sky Hi Dunk indicates.
As Nike increases its focus on women, it is offering specialized services like bra fitting and pant hemming at its women's only stores. In conjunction with its retail partners, it opened 173 new premium women's spaces in just the last year alone, and plans to create more than 1,000 over the next five years. The expansion of those platforms as well as improvements in e-commerce will help accelerate sales in its women's business toward its goal of $11 billion.
While women's and direct-to-consumer make up two areas where Nike expects to see some of its biggest growth, the Swoosh is no slouch when it comes to other key areas. Geographically, it sees North American sales jumping from $13.7 billion to $20 billion and expects to find it fastest growth in China, projecting an annual growth rate in the mid-teens to $6.5 billion, as the combination of an exploding middle class and love of sport play to its favor.
Brand-wise, the biggest push seems to be in the Jordan line, which is expanding into sports outside of basketball, including running and football, as well as women's, for the first time ever. Nike hopes the extension will help double sales of Jordan products to $4.5 billion. Meanwhile, in running, its biggest sports category, it projects growth from $4.9 billion to $7.5 billion thanks to innovation like the Nike+ Run Club and the Flyknit.
Despite competition from Lululemon and Under Armour (NYSE:UAA), Nike today is stronger than ever. Its popularity among teenagers and young people continues to grow, and its combination of innovation and savvy marketing continue to drive the brand to new heights. New technologies like 3D-printed shoes are in the pipeline, and we can expect a number of other new inventions over the next five years.
While Lululemon and Under Armour have managed to carve out share in the growing sports apparel and "athleisure" industries, in terms of size both companies still pale in comparison to Nike. Under Armour is the larger of the two upstarts with $3.1 billion in sales last year but event assuming a 20% growth rate through 2020 would give it just $9.3 billion in sales that year, a drop in the buck compared to Nike.
Along with its $50 billion revenue goal, Nike is forecasting EPS growth in the mid-teens, which would mean doubling over five years. Though its P/E at 33 is relatively high today, Nike has delivered the growth to back it up. With a plan to keep racing into 2020, the stock could be an easy double over the next five years.