Here's an interesting wager: What do you think Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) will bail on first, China or Nexus One?

Google's first directly marketed smartphone is off to a rough start. It received generally favorable initial reviews, but the crowd's opinion is shifting. Nexus One is being picked apart for lacking tech support by phone, and for the possibility of incurring up to $550 in early termination fees -- more than the cost of the unlocked model.

The damage is done, and it's apparently even keeping pioneer buyers away. Mobile analytics specialist Flurry is estimating that Nexus One sold a measly 20,000 handsets in its first week on the market.

Putting this into its appropriately grim perspective, Flurry breaks down its estimates for the first-week of sales of other recent smartphone rollouts.



Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 3GS


Motorola's (NYSE:MOT) Droid


myTouch 3G


Google's Nexus One


Source: Flurry (based on tracked new users in the Flurry system).

To be fair, there hasn't been a full-on marketing blitz for the Nexus One. It's been mostly limited to media hype and a little landing-page loving on There's no overpowering "Droid Does" campaign or the stylish onslaught that accompanies Apple product launches.

Some may blame the low visibility of Deutsche Telekom's (NYSE:DT) T-Mobile as the initial Nexus One carrier, but it had no problem moving three times as many handsets of the similarly Android-powered myTouch 3G, according to Flurry.

Roaming charges weren't billed in a day, though. Let's give Nexus One more than a few weeks before writing it off. I still don't see a blockbuster here, of course. Fellow Fool Tim Beyers disagrees with me, but I see the smartphone market as saturated, where Apple and Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) have already picked off the juiciest chunk of the population that can afford a smartphone's prohibitive data plan.

The irony is that Google may be in a win-win situation. Even if Nexus One proves to be a dud, the reasonably better success of Android-based Droid and myTouch 3G will keep Big G a major player in mobile.

You've got to love Google. Even when it seems to be losing, it finds a way to win.

Is the smartphone market truly saturated? Agree or disagree with Rick in the comment box below.

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Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is starting to see more Apple products creep into his home lately, but he owns no shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.