Can Boston Beer Lead the Industry Again in 2021?
Management is optimistic after closing out a record growth year.
When it comes to shopping, there are things you need, and there are things that are more nice to have. The consumer discretionary sector covers that second category, the goods and services people spend money on when they have a little extra cash available.
Unlike consumer staples companies -- which make the bare necessities -- consumer discretionary stocks tend to do well when the economy is strong and people have more money, and poorly when times are tough and it's harder to make ends meet, like during the coronavirus pandemic. Below, we'll show you some top consumer discretionary stocks to consider and then look more closely at this part of the stock market.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the consumer discretionary sector differently from the consumer staples sector, which sells necessities.
Several consumer discretionary companies stand out as being among the best in the business.
|Consumer Discretionary Stock||Description of Business|
|Nike (NYSE:NKE)||Athletic apparel and footwear|
|Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX)||Coffeehouse chain|
|McDonald's (NYSE:MCD)||Restaurant chain|
|TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX)||Off-price retailer|
|Disney (NYSE:DIS)||Family entertainment|
Nike (NYSE:NKE) has built up a dominant position in athletic footwear and apparel, with more than half a century of innovation in making sports equipment accessible to a broad consumer audience. The beauty of Nike's business model stems from its use of celebrity sports endorsements, tying the success of athletes to the company's products. Long after Michael Jordan left the professional basketball court, Air Jordan shoes remain a mainstay of Nike's business. Nike’s market share in athletic footwear, recently estimated at between 25% and 30%, puts it well ahead of international competitors Adidas (OTC:ADDYT.Y) and ASICS (OTC:ASCCF). And with the global sportswear company reaching out to play a bigger role in fast-growing areas such as China, the sky's the limit for Nike's future growth.
Though COVID-19 has hurt Nike’s business, the company has built a strong digital ecosystem around apps like SNKRS and the Nike Training Club that has buffered much of the impact of the crisis. In fact the company even returned to profit growth in its fiscal first quarter, as it saved money on marketing expenses due to the cancellation of a number of live sporting events.
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) has defined how much of the world starts its day, with its ubiquitous coffeehouses sporting lines out the door most mornings at locations across the globe. By introducing the European café concept to the American masses, Starbucks tapped into consumers’ urge to treat themselves to small things, and its premium beverages now have a loyal following the world over. You can see the company’s success in its comparable-store sales, which tell us how its business is growing without new stores. For fiscal 2019, Starbucks’ comp sales grew a healthy 5% worldwide. Those numbers have fallen sharply during the pandemic, but Starbucks is still poised to gain market share thanks to advantages including its brand, tech initiatives, and financial flexibility, as rivals like independent cafés are under much greater pressure. Additionally, the company now forecasts strong growth through 2022 as it emerges from the health crisis, and it will be among the biggest beneficiaries of the coronavirus vaccine.
The company has more than 33,000 locations across the globe as of December 2020, and it expects to have 55,000 locations by 2030.
McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) has come a long way from its heyday in the mid-20th century, and the fast-food colossus has worked hard to keep up with the times. Innovations such as digital menus that automatically change throughout the day, automated kiosks for ordering, online and mobile order capabilities, and delivery options are making McDonald's more accessible than ever. At the same time, the restaurant chain still has an emphasis on value that keeps customers coming back for more, and its drive-thrus have helped it weather the pandemic better than a number of other restaurant chains.
Even in the ever-changing restaurant space, McDonald's has found a way to stay not only relevant, but hip. Investors also like McDonald's for its consistent dividend payments. It has increased those payments to shareholders each year since the mid-1970s, and its payout ratio of around 60% means it can comfortably pay that dividend out of its earnings.
Off-price retail giant TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) has found success in apparel and home goods with a model that’s not easily replicated online. The parent company of TJ Maxx, Marshall’s, and Home Goods gets discounted brand-name merchandise through closeout sales, manufacturer errors, and order cancellations and then sells it for 20%-60% off.
The model has driven wide profit margins and solid growth over the years, and the company has plans to expand to more than 6,000 stores globally, up from about 4,500 today.
Though TJX took a hit during the shutdown period like other discretionary retailers, customer traffic has come back strong since reopening, and the company even grew earnings per share modestly in the third quarter. It also reinstated its dividend with a 13% hike, a further sign of confidence in a recovery. Meanwhile, the recessionary environment should help the company capitalize on its reputation for low prices, and the challenges across the retail sector should present the company with plenty of opportunities to scoop up cheap inventory.
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is the first name in family entertainment. The company’s theme parks and animated movies have been staples of Americana for generations, and they’re popular the world over.
Today the company comprises much more than the Disney brand. It owns ABC, ESPN, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, a majority stake in Hulu, and a vast array of assets it acquired from Fox in a 2019 deal.
Disney has a number of competitive strengths, including an unrivaled trove of intellectual property and a flywheel model in which successful movies like Frozen can be spun into multiple business lines such as theme park rides, toys, and even live entertainment.
The company has been hit on multiple fronts by the pandemic: Its theme parks have been shut down or are operating at limited capacity, movie theaters have gone dark, and live sports were canceled for several months. However, the company has found a winner in its streaming service, Disney+, which has more than 70 million subscribers. Disney even restructured its entertainment business to make the new streaming service the centerpiece.
With full vaccine distribution expected in months, Disney will be among the winners in the recovery, and its parks and resorts could even see record attendance due to pent-up demand.
Consumer discretionary stocks cover several different industries, but the one thing they have in common is that they all involve businesses that count on consumers spending money they don't need to spend. They include the following types of businesses:
The fact that consumer discretionary stocks tend to rise and fall with the overall economy makes them cyclical stocks. In analyzing the sector to find the best consumer discretionary stocks, it's therefore important not just to look at recent performance, but also to consider how each company did over the course of the most recent economic cycle, which includes the coronavirus pandemic.
COVID-19 has hit the consumer discretionary sector especially hard, as many of these businesses either can’t operate during the pandemic or are operating at a diminished capacity. Among the industries most hurt by the pandemic are travel, restaurants, retail, and entertainment, as these businesses generally require some degree of “social gathering,” which could put customers at risk in the current circumstances. It’s worth remembering that the COVID-19 pandemic is a unique circumstance and different from the typical recession, which merely causes consumers to spend less. Still, it serves as a good example of how crises affect these stocks differently from consumer staples retailers, like grocery stores, that sell necessities and can therefore better manage tough times.
With a vaccine now on the horizon, consumer discretionary stocks are springing back to life, as investors expect the sector to make a quick recovery once the pandemic ends. In fact some stocks, such as those in the travel sector, are likely to benefit from pent-up demand, as consumers are expected to come swarming back to services and experiences they’ve been deprived of.
It’s worth remembering that the COVID-19 pandemic is a unique circumstance, and so this recession differs from the typical recession, which merely causes consumers to spend less. Still, it serves as a good example of how crises affect consumer discretionary businesses differently from consumer staples retailers, like grocery stores, which sell necessities and can therefore better manage tough times.
Although the COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for many consumer discretionary companies, investors have a unique opportunity in the sector, as good news is on the way in the form of a vaccine. Focusing on well-known brands and industry leaders in this sector is generally a formula for success. These companies should emerge stronger from the crisis, as they can capture market share from stumbling rivals and have deeper pockets to reinvest.
For the moment, demand may be stunted for experiences like restaurant dining and travel, but that demand will resurge soon. Long-term investors can take advantage of the recovery by buying high-quality stocks that are trading at a discount.
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