The old way of buying software -- pricey one-off purchases of perpetual licenses -- has some big downsides. Software companies must continually convince customers to upgrade to new versions, and customers are forced to shell out a bunch of money all at once. If you wanted to use productivity software a decade ago, you had no choice but to spend hundreds of dollars to buy outright software that would be out of date in just a few years.
Today, many software companies have shifted to a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model. Instead of a one-and-done transaction, customers now subscribe to a software product that’s continually updated. The software company gets a reliable stream of recurring revenue, and the customer gains pricing flexibility and always-up-to-date software.
Did You Know?
Fast-growing SaaS companies often post large losses as they scale up their revenue.
What are the best SaaS stocks?
SaaS stocks are popular among investors, and that popularity has shifted into overdrive, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. Valuations of SaaS stocks are very high, making many of them incredibly risky.
A high valuation can lead to lackluster returns for investors even if the underlying company performs well. If you want to invest in SaaS stocks without taking on the excessive risk that comes with sky-high valuations, consider these stocks:
- Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): Microsoft has been around for 45 years, dominating the era of traditional software. Microsoft Windows is the standard operating system for PCs, and Microsoft Office is still frequently the productivity suite of choice.
Microsoft’s dominance was tested by the proliferation of mobile devices, which do not use Windows, and by competition from Alphabet’s Google in the form of Google Docs, Sheets, and Slides. Microsoft eventually abandoned its PC-centric strategy by bringing first-rate versions of its Office applications to mobile devices, and it launched Office 365, a subscription-based version of Office.
Office 365 has been a success, garnering around 40 million consumer subscribers and preserving Microsoft’s lead in the productivity software market. Other SaaS products from Microsoft include Teams, the company’s collaboration software, which quickly gained subscribers during the pandemic. Teams aims to be a one-stop shop for collaboration, offering group chats, video meetings, and plenty of other features.
Microsoft isn’t a pure-play SaaS company, and the stock is historically expensive relative to earnings. But the company has been able to successfully transition to the SaaS era while maintaining its market dominance.
- Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE): Adobe is best known for creativity software such as Photoshop. Adobe’s software products are entrenched as the industry standard, and while there are cheaper and even free alternatives available, that hasn’t been enough to derail the software giant's market leadership.
Adobe has gone all in on subscriptions, announcing back in 2013 that it would stop developing new versions of its stand-alone creative software in favor of selling subscription products. This initially hurt the company’s financial performance since revenue that had once been recognized right away was now being spread out over time. But the move has paid off in a big way.
Adobe’s revenue was nearly $13 billion in its fiscal year 2020, up from just $4 billion in 2013. Moving from selling one-off licenses for hundreds of dollars to selling subscriptions costing as little as $10 per month has made the company’s software available to a much wider audience.
Like Microsoft’s, Adobe’s stock is historically expensive. The company has performed well during the pandemic, posting record revenue and profit. The company’s software is as dominant as it’s ever been, and that’s unlikely to change.
- Salesforce (NYSE:CRM): Salesforce, a provider of cloud-based customer relationship management software, is a SaaS pioneer. The company went public in 2004 and has since expanded its annual revenue to around $17 billion.
Salesforce isn’t nearly as profitable as Microsoft or Adobe, partly because it spends close to half of its revenue on sales and marketing to drive growth. But that hasn’t stopped the stock from soaring. Shares of Salesforce have surged in price by nearly 600% during the past decade as the SaaS model became an industry standard.
Like any enterprise software company, Salesforce’s revenue could be affected by widespread business failures during or after the pandemic. But Salesforce is a good option if you’re looking for a profitable, pure-play SaaS investment, and the company’s stock has performed well so far.
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What to look for in SaaS stocks
While Microsoft, Adobe, and Salesforce all turn healthy profits, many SaaS companies are not yet profitable, so the standard price-to-earnings ratio that is often used to evaluate stock prices doesn’t apply. A lack of profits isn’t concerning on its own. A SaaS company must spend heavily upfront on sales and marketing to gain customers, who pay for the product over time. This timing mismatch means that fast-growing SaaS companies will often post large losses as they scale up their revenue.
These are two important metrics to consider when evaluating SaaS stocks:
- Customer acquisition cost: One thing to look at is how much a SaaS company must spend to acquire each new customer. The lower the ratio of sales and marketing spending to revenue, the better, and that ratio should be declining over time. If it’s not, it could be an indication that the company is spending too much to bring in new customers.
- Price-to-sales ratio: The price-to-sales ratio (a company's market capitalization divided by its annual revenue) is often used as a valuation metric for SaaS companies. The higher the ratio, the more optimistic investors are that high rates of revenue growth will continue and that the revenue will eventually lead to profits. For reference, Adobe trades for around 19 times sales, while Microsoft trades for around 12 times sales.
An exceedingly high price-to-sales ratio is something to be wary of, regardless of the quality or growth prospects of the underlying company. SaaS highfliers such as Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM), and Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) trade for between 40 and 100 times sales, levels that are difficult to justify even under the rosiest of scenarios.
Don't ignore SaaS company valuations
Microsoft, Adobe, and Salesforce aren’t the most exciting SaaS stocks, but they’re all profitable, and they all sport valuations that don’t require mental gymnastics to justify. Growth in subscription-based software, supercharged by the pandemic, will create plenty of winners in the SaaS industry. But ignoring valuation is a recipe for poor results.