Please don't tell my wife, but I'm not always right.
I goofed pretty majorly back in July when I failed to predict the damage to Teck Cominco
As a long-term value investor, I generally pay little attention to the volatile peaks and valleys that seem to so entertain the investing masses. Since the equities markets in 2008 were characterized by bouts of forced liquidation and indiscriminate selling, valuations for many quality companies dove through bargain territory right into the realm of ridiculous.
Case in point: Trading below $3, Silver Wheaton
Silver Wheaton's shares hit their 52-week low of $2.51 on Nov. 25, the same day that article appeared. Since that time, those shares have more than doubled to trade near $5.50 as we head into the holidays. For the swing trader who may have locked in some profits last week, the move could have produced gains of 175% in just a few weeks. Some Fools got downright emotional. (You're welcome.) For those with a longer-term focus, however, I believe that the 2008 low of $2.51 will stand as an all-time bottom.
Calling bottoms is inherently risky and often pointless, but I believe the widespread panic which painted that tape is unlikely to affect the precious metals sector in the same way again. To date, U.S. Treasuries have been among the most notable assets to which investors have fled, but I see gold and silver reasserting their roles as safe haven assets should any further panic selling grip the equities markets in 2009 and beyond.
My best stock for 2009, Agnico-Eagle Mines
Once more for the record, I believe these quality miners have seen their darkest hour. We'll just have to wait and see if I can claim the title of "Seer of Metal" or not.
Get your minimum daily minerals with this Foolishness:
- How about gold for $10 per ounce?
- POSCO is swimming against the current
- Are production cuts going too far?
On Jan. 12, 2009, Fool co-founder David Gardner, Jeff Fischer, and their Motley Fool Pro team will accept new subscribers to their real-money portfolio service. Motley Fool Pro is investing $1 million of the Fool's own money in long and short positions in a range of securities, including common stocks, put and call options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They also incorporate proprietary CAPS "community intelligence" data into their research. To learn more about Motley Fool Pro and to receive a private invitation to join, simply enter your email address in the box below.
If you've enjoyed this unconventional journey through Silver Wheaton's numbers, I think you'll appreciate the insight of The Motley Fool's Inside Value newsletter team as it tears apart the numbers on a wide array of screaming values. You sure can't beat the value of the 30-day free trial we're offering today.
Fool contributor Christopher Barker promises to keep in interesting by being wrong a couple of times in 2009. He can be found blogging actively and acting Foolishly within the CAPS community under the username TMFSinchiruna. He owns shares of Agnico-Eagle Mines, Kinross Gold, Pan American Silver, Silver Wheaton, Teck Cominco, and Yamana Gold. POSCO is an Income Investor choice. The Motley Fool has a sterling disclosure policy.