15 of the Most Recession-Proof Housing Markets in the U.S.

The national housing market boomed during the pandemic, sparking fears of another bubble bursting in real estate. While any price pullback should be less drastic than the financial crisis, there is still reason to be concerned as 30-year mortgage rates are now approaching 6%, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has promised to continue hiking rates to bring inflation to heel.

Though some parts of the country are clearly vulnerable to a housing market crash, others look much more stable even if a recession hits. Here are 15 of the country's most recession-proof housing markets.

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Second-home markets and coastal locales boomed during the pandemic, but housing markets across the Midwest and parts of the Northeast saw slower growth, which helps make them more resistant to a pullback today.

Synonymous with the Rust Belt, Cleveland, Ohio, is a prime example. Redfin ranks it on its top 10 list of recession-proof housing markets, and according to Zillow, the average mid-tier home price in Cleveland is just $111,000, even though it increased 16% last year.

That low price means the housing market should be stable even if the economy goes sour.

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Not far from Cleveland, Buffalo, New York, also makes the top ten list of safe housing markets, according to Redfin.

Buffalo was once one of the 10 biggest cities in the country, but its growth has been stagnant for a long time. That's helped make it one of the more affordable housing markets in the country. According to Zillow, the typical home price in Buffalo is just $217,000, up 12% over the last year.

Prices like that help keep the market recession-proof as it's likely to attract homebuyers if the economy goes south.

Staying in the same part of the country, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, also fits the bill for a market that can weather a recession.

Bankrate ranked Pittsburgh No. 1 on its list of best metros for first-time homebuyers, citing its affordability, balanced housing market, and safety. Average prices for a typical home in Pittsburgh are just $235,000, up 6% from the year before. The city offers a diverse economy, known for its tech, healthcare, and university jobs, as well as other trappings of a big city, like world-class museums and pro sports.

Kansas City, Missouri, is next on the list, cited by both Redfin and Bankrate as a recession-proof market.

While not in the Rust Belt, Kansas City still shares a number of qualities with the other cities on this list, including a slow-growing population, a location away from the coasts, and a temperate climate with harsh winters.

Bankrate ranked Kansas City No. 4 for first-time homebuyers, saying it was tops in housing inventory. Mid-tier home prices in Kansas City are up 15% over the last year but still affordable at $231,000.

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Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is one of the nation's largest cities, and though it's sandwiched between New York and Washington, D.C., it's more blue-collar than its neighbors.

That makes the city a good bet to weather a recession as it can draw new residents from nearby cities if they want to cut housing costs. According to Redfin, Philadelphia is the second-most recession-resistant city in the country. Housing prices for a typical home are up 6% in the past year to $237,000.

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Coming in at No. 1 on Redfin's list of the most recession-resistant housing markets is Akron, Ohio, the city known as the Rubber Capital of the World. Akron is no longer the manufacturing hub it once was, but it's still the home of Goodyear Tire & Rubber.

Like other Rust Belt cities, Akron's risk of a housing downturn is low because home prices are modest. Home prices rose just 8% in Akron last year, compared to a national increase of around 20%. Average home prices in the city are just $118,000 for a mid-range dwelling, making it potentially attractive to homebuyers looking for a bargain.

Another small Midwestern city to make the list, Lincoln, Nebraska, has a more recession-proof economy than most cities. That's because it's home to both the state government and the flagship state university, giving it a job base generally protected from the vicissitudes of the economy.

Nebraska ranks among the states with the lowest unemployment rates, making Lincoln a good place to ride out a recession. Home values are also modest at the average price of $268,000, up 11% over the last year.

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Like much of the country, Providence, Rhode Island, has had housing prices jump during the pandemic, but the market has several things going for it that should cushion a recession.

It's the state capital, making it home to thousands of government jobs. Located just an hour from Boston, making it potentially attractive as a commuter market for the more expensive Boston area, Providence is home to a number of universities, including Brown.

The average home price in the city is $347,000, making it more expensive than other cities on the list, but as a cheaper alternative to Boston, it should be stable in an economic downturn.

Home to a number of Fortune 500 companies, including 3M, General Mills, and Target, the Twin Cities has historically had a strong economy. Thanks, in part, to smart housing policies, Minneapolis, Minnesota, has been able to escape the housing shortages that have plagued much of the country.

That's why it ranks No. 2 on Bankrate's list of best cities for first-time homebuyers. It has low unemployment and high-quality marks for wellness, culture, and safety.

Housing is relatively affordable, with a typical home priced at $342,000, but it's only appreciated 4% in the last year, showing it shouldn't be at risk of a national home price decline.

Yet another overlooked Midwestern city, Cincinnati, Ohio, checks many of the boxes homeowners should look for if they want a home that won't lose value in a crash.

Cincinnati's population is stable, so it hasn't experienced the volatility that other parts of the country have over the last two years. The housing market hasn't shown many signs of cooling so far this year. It's also affordable and safe -- two qualities any homebuyer can appreciate.

A typical home in the city is priced at just $233,000, up 11% over the last year. That's a sign the market should be stable in a recession.

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Large cities can often weather a recession better than smaller metros because their economies are more diverse and tend to attract a steady influx of college graduates and other young adults.

Chicago, Illinois, offers one example. The nation's third-biggest city has one of the most diverse local economies. The area is home to 36 Fortune 500 companies, including Walgreens, Boeing, and McDonald's.

The Chicago housing market is also much more affordable than its coastal counterparts like New York and California, offsetting some of the recession risks, and prices have been relatively stable over the last two years. According to Zillow, the typical value of a Chicago home is $321,000, up 9% from a year ago, a good sign of stability.

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Boston, Massachusetts, might be a surprise on this list as its housing market is generally regarded as one of the most expensive in the country.

However, Redfin ranked it among its top 10 list of recession-resistant housing markets, noting that home prices rose slowly during the pandemic as some residents took advantage of remote work and left the city. So, prices haven't been inflated here as they have been nationally.

In addition to being a tech hub, Boston is the state capital of Massachusetts and home to a large number of universities, giving the local economy some stability. With a typical home price of $743,000, the city won't win any prizes for affordability. But prices rose just 7% last year, showing it's more stable than much of the country.

Another Midwestern city with many of the hallmarks of stability is Madison, the capital of Wisconsin.

As the seat of state government and the home of the flagship University of Wisconsin, Madison has two primary characteristics that stabilize a local job market during a recession.

Located on an isthmus between two lakes, Madison tends to rank high on quality of life lists, thanks to its amenities, access to outdoor activities, low unemployment, and housing affordability. The price for a typical home in Madison rose 13% last year to $375,000.

One of the few cities on this list that isn't in the Northeast or Midwest, El Paso, Texas, has long had a reputation for housing affordability. Its economy hasn't seen the same kind of boom recently that Texas cities like Austin or Dallas have.

In fact, Redfin puts El Paso at No. 3 on its list of top recession-proof housing markets, as it's still more affordable than many other cities in Texas and the West. And prices have remained stable through the first half of the year, even as other markets have started pulling back. According to Zillow, the price for a typical home in El Paso jumped 19% over the last year but is still only $201,000.

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Like El Paso, Tulsa, Oklahoma, benefits from its reputation for housing affordability, which helps it earn the final spot on this list.

The website Livability ranked Tulsa No. 6 on its top-seven list of recession-proof cities, partly because it weathered the 2008 financial crisis so well. In a state dominated by the agricultural and energy industries, the economy may be more sensitive to commodity prices than others. Still, Tulsa's home prices have historically been stable and affordable. The typical price for a home is just $188,000, up 19% from a year ago.

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While it's still unclear how the real estate boom will play out, some markets have shown early signs of price declines. And those that have seen the greatest price appreciation are most at risk of a decline.

If you're a homebuyer looking for affordability and a house that will keep its value, you're best off hunting in cities in the Northeast and Midwest that haven't seen the soaring housing prices that many other parts of the country have.

Jeremy Bowman has positions in Redfin and Target. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Redfin, Target, Zillow Group (A shares), and Zillow Group (C shares). The Motley Fool recommends 3M and recommends the following options: short August 2022 $13 calls on Redfin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.