JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.06%)
Q4 2022 Earnings Call
Jan 13, 2023, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's fourth-quarter 2022 earnings call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call.

We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum. Mr.

Barnum, please go ahead.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. The presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer on the back. Starting on Page 1.

The firm reported net income of $11 billion, EPS of $3.57, and revenue of 35.6 billion, and delivered an ROTCE of 20%. This quarter, we had two significant items in corporate: a $914 million gain on the sale of Visa B shares, offset by 874 million of net investment securities loss. Touching on a few highlights. Combined credit and debit spend is up 9% year on year, with growth in both discretionary and nondiscretionary spending.

We ended the year ranked No. 1 for global IB fees, with wallet share of 8%. And credit continues to normalize, but actual performance remains strong across the company. On Page 2, we have more on our fourth-quarter results.

Revenue of 35.6 billion was up 5.2 billion, or 17%, year on year. NII ex markets was up 8.4 billion, or 72%, driven by higher rates. NII ex markets was down 3.5 billion, or 26%, predominantly driven by lower IB fees, as well as management and performance fees in AWM, lower auto lease income and home lending production revenue. And market revenue was up 382 million, or 7%, year on year.

Expenses of 19 billion were up 1.1 billion, or 6%, year on year, primarily driven by higher structural expense and investments. And credit costs of 2.3 billion included net charge-offs of 887 million. The net reserve build of 1.4 billion was driven by updates to the firm's macroeconomic outlook, which now reflects a mild recession in the central case, as well as loan growth in card services, partially offset by a reduction in pandemic-related uncertainty. Looking at the full-year results on Page 3.

The firm reported net income of 37.7 billion, EPS of $12.09, and record revenue of 132.3 billion. And we delivered an ROTCE of 18%. On the balance sheet and capital on Page 4. End of the quarter, the CET1 ratio of 13.2%, up 70 basis points, primarily driven by the benefit of net income, including the sale of Visa B shares, less distributions, AOCI gains, and lower RWA.

RWA declined approximately 20 billion quarter on quarter, reflecting lower RWA in the markets business, which was partially offset by an increase in lending, primarily in card services. Recall that we had a 13% CET1 target for the first quarter of 2023, which we have now reached one quarter early. So, given that, we expect to resume share repurchases this quarter. Now, let's go to our businesses starting on Page 5.

Starting with a quick update on the health of U.S. consumers and small businesses. Based on our data, they are generally on solid footing although sentiment for both reflects recessionary concerns not yet fully reflected in our data. Combined debtor and credit -- debit and credit spend is up 9% year on year.

Both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend are up year on year, the strongest growth in discretionary being travel. Retail spend is up 4% on the back of a particularly strong fourth quarter last year. E-commerce spend was up 7%, while in-person spend was roughly flat. Cash buffers for both consumers and small businesses continue to slowly normalize, with lower income segments and small businesses normalizing faster.

Consumer cash buffers for the lower-income segments are expected to be back to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of this year. Now, moving to financial results. This quarter, CCB reported net income of 4.5 billion on revenue of 15.8 billion, which was up 29% year on year. You'll notice in our presentation that we renamed consumer and business banking to banking and wealth management.

Starting there, revenue was up 56% year on year, driven by higher NII on higher rates. Deposits were down 3% quarter on quarter as spend remained strong and the rate cycle plays out, with outflows being partially offset by new relationships. Client investment assets were down 10% year on year, driven by market performance, partially offset by net inflows where we are seeing good momentum, including from our deposit customer. Home lending revenue was down 46% year on year, largely driven by lower production revenue.

Moving to car services and auto. Revenue was up 12% year on year, predominantly driven by higher card services NII on higher revolving balances, partially offset by lower auto lease income. Card outstandings were up 19%. Total revolving balances were up 20%, and we are now back to pre-pandemic levels. However, revolving balances per account are still below pre-pandemic levels, which should be a tailwind in 2023.

And in auto, originations were 7.5 billion, down 12%. Expenses of 8 billion were up 3% year on year, primarily driven by investments as well as higher compensation, largely offset by auto lease depreciation from lower volumes. In terms of credit performance this quarter, product costs were 1.8 billion, reflecting reserve builds of 800 million in card and 200 million home lending. And net charge-offs of 845 million, up 330 million year on year.

Next, the CIB on Page 6. CIB reported net income of 3.3 billion on revenue of 10.5 billion for the fourth quarter. Investment banking revenue of 1.4 billion was down 57% year on year. IB fees were down 58%, in line with the market.

In advisory, fees were down 53%, reflecting lower announced activity earlier in the year. Our underwriting businesses were affected by market conditions, resulting in fees down 58% for debt and down 69% for equity. In terms of the outlook, the dynamics remain the same. Pipeline is relatively robust, but conversion is very sensitive to market conditions and sentiment about the economic outlook.

Also, note that it will be a difficult compare against last year's first quarter. Moving to markets. Revenue was 5.7 billion, up 7% year on year, driven by the strength in our macro franchise. Fixed income was up 12% as elevated volatility drove strong client activity, particularly in rates and currencies in emerging markets, while securitized products continued to be challenged by the market environment.

Equity markets was relatively flat against a strong fourth quarter last year. Payments revenue was 2.1 billion, up 15% year on year. Excluding the net impact of equity investments, it was up 56%. And the year-on-year growth was driven by higher rates.

Security services revenue of 1.2 billion was up 9% year on year, predominantly driven by higher rates, largely offset by lower deposits and market levels. Expenses of 6.4 billion were up 10% year on year, predominantly driven by the timing of revenue-related compensation. On a full-year basis, expenses of 27.1 billion were up 7% year on year, primarily driven by higher structural expense and investments, partially offset by lower revenue-related compensation. Moving to the commercial banking on Page 7.

Commercial banking reported net income of 1.4 billion. Record revenue of $3.4 billion was up 30% year on year, driven by higher deposit margins, partially offset by lower investment banking revenue and deposit-related fees. Gross investment banking revenue of 700 million was down 52% year on year, driven by reduced capital markets activity. Expenses of 1.3 billion were up 18% year on year.

Deposits were down 14% year on year, up 1% quarter on quarter, primarily reflecting attrition on nonoperating deposits. Loans were up 14% year on year and 3% sequentially. C&I loans were up 4% quarter on quarter, reflecting continued strength in originations and revolver utilization. CRE loans were up 2% quarter on quarter, reflecting a slower pace of growth from earlier in the year due to higher rates, which impacts both originations and prepayment activity.

Then to complete our lines of business, AWM on Page 8. Asset and wealth management reported net income of 1.1 billion, with pre-tax margin of 33%. Revenue, 4.6 billion, was up 3% year on year, driven by higher deposit margins on lower balances, predominantly offset by reductions in management, performance and placement fees linked to this year's market declines. Expenses of 3 billion were up 1% year on year, predominantly driven by growth in our private banking advisory teams, largely offset by lower performance-related compensation.

For the quarter, net long-term inflows were 10 billion, positive across equities and fixed income, and 47 billion for the full year. And in liquidity, we saw net inflows of 33 billion for the quarter and net outflows of 55 billion for the year. AUM of 2.8 trillion and overall client assets of 4 trillion were down 11% and 6% year on year, respectively, driven by lower market levels. Finally, loans were down 1% quarter on quarter, driven by lower securities-based lending, while deposits were down 6% sequentially, driven by the rising rate environment, resulting in migration to investments and other cash alternatives.

Turning to corporate on Page 9. Corporate reported a net gain of 581 million. Revenue of 1.2 billion was up 1.7 billion year on year. NII was 1.3 billion, up 2 billion year on year due to the impact of higher rates.

NIR was a loss of 115 million and reflects the two significant items I mentioned earlier. And expenses of 339 million were up 88 million year on year. With that, let's pivot to the outlook for 2023, which I will cover over the next few pages, starting with NII on Page 10. I take a sip of water.

OK. We expect total NII to be approximately 73 billion and NII ex markets to be approximately 74 billion. On the page, we show how the significant increases in quarterly NIIs throughout 2022 culminated in the $81 billion run rate for the fourth quarter and how we expect that to evolve for 2023. Going through the drivers, the outlook assumes that rates follow the forward curve, a combination of the annualization of the hike in late December.

The hikes expected early in the year and the cuts expected later in the year should be a net tailwind. Offsetting that tailwind is the impact of deposit repricing, which includes our best guess of rate paid in both wholesale and consumer. In addition, looking at balance sheet growth and mix, we expect solid overall card spend growth, as well as further normalization of revolving balances per account and modest loan growth across the rest of the company. We expect that this tailwind will be offset by lower deposit balances, even modest attrition in both consumer and wholesale.

But it's very important to note that this NII outlook is particularly uncertain. Specifically, Fed funds could deviate from forwards, balance attrition and migration assumptions could be meaningfully different, and deposit product and pricing decisions will be determined by customer behavior and competitive dynamics as we focus on maintaining and growing primary bank relationships and may be quite different from what this outlook assumes. And further, the timing of all these factors could significantly affect the sequential trajectory of NII throughout the year. That said, as we continue executing our strategy of investing to acquire new customers, as well as deepen relationships with existing ones, and as we see the impact of loan growth, we would expect sequential NII growth to return, all else being equal.

And just to finish up on NII, as the guidance indicates, we expect markets NII for the year to be slightly negative as a result of higher rates. But remember, this is offset in markets NIR. Now, turning to expenses on Page 11. We expect 2023 adjusted expense to be about 81 billion, which includes approximately 500 million from the higher FDIC assessment.

Going through some of the other drivers. We expect increases from labor inflation, which, while it seems to be abating on a forward-looking basis, is effectively in the run rate for 2023. An additional labor-related driver is the annualization of 2022 headcount growth, as well as our plans for a more modest headcount increase for the year, all of which are primarily in connection with executing our investments. And on investments, while we are continuing to invest consistent with what we told you at Investor Day, it's a more modest increase than last yea.

But themes remain consistent, and we will continue to give you more detail throughout the year, including at Investor Day in May. Of course, as is always true, this outlook includes continuing to generate efficiencies across the company. And finally, while volume and revenue-related expense was ultimately a tailwind for 2022, we are expecting it to be close to flat in 2023, which will be completely market dependent as always. Moving to credit on Page 12.

On the page, you can see how exceptionally benign the credit environment was in 2022 for the company across wholesale, card, and the rest of consumer. Turning to the 2023 outlook for card net charge-offs, specifically, Marianne gave quite a bit of detail about this on a recent conference, and our outlook hasn't really changed. But to recap that story, the entry to delinquency rate is the leading indicator of future charge-offs, and it is currently around 80% of pre-pandemic levels. We expect that to normalize around the middle of the year with the associated charge-offs falling about six months later.

As a result, loss rates in 2023 will still be normalizing. While we anticipate exiting the year around normalized levels, we expect the 2023 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 2.6%, up from the historically low rate of 147 basis points of 2022 but still well below fully normalized levels. Well, let's turn to Page 13 for a brief wrap-up before going to Q&A. We're very proud of the 2022 results, producing an 18% ROTCE and record revenue in what was a quite dynamic environment.

Throughout my discussion of the outlook, I've emphasized the uncertainty and many of the key drivers of 2023 results. And while we are ready for a range of scenarios, our expectation is for another strong performance. So, as we look forward, we expect to continue to produce strong returns in the near term, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our through-the-cycle target of 17% ROTCE. And with that, operator, let's open up the line for Q&A.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Please stand by. [Audio gap] coming from the line of John McDonald from Autonomous Research. You may proceed.

John McDonald -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning, Jeremy. I wanted to ask about the NII outlook, Slide 10. The range of outcomes on deposit costs is quite wide.

As you mentioned, it looks like 1.5% to 2% demonstrated there. Does the 74 billion NII line up with kind of the midpoint of that? Maybe you could give some color about kind of the drivers of the 74 and where that lines up on this range of deposit cost outcomes.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure, John. I mean, I wouldn't take the chart on the bottom left too literally. That's just supposed to give us stylized indication and of the fact that, you know, relatively small changes in deposit rate paid for the company on average, as you well know, can produce quite significant impacts on the NII and also that there's, you know, as we've already talked about, a meaningful [Audio gap] The outlook is our best guess, as Jamie says, you know, and the drivers within that are the usual drivers. In wholesale, we would expect to see a little bit of continued attrition, you know, especially of the nonoperating-type balances.

And you're going to see some internal migration there out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing over time. In consumer, you know, CDs are flowing right now and we're seeing good CD production. We've got a 4% sitting in the market as of this morning. And so, continue to see new production.

And internal migration there will be a driver. And, you know, the rest of it is -- well -- and of course, you know, as I said in the prepared remarks, we do expect, across the company, modest deposit attrition as we look forward as a function of QT and the rate cycle and so on. So, you know, we've got best guesses for all of those in the outlook. And of course, the actual outcome will be different in one way or another.

And we'll just, you know, run the business this year.

John McDonald -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

OK, thanks. On buybacks, how will you think about approaching buybacks and putting it in that mix of capital decisions that you have? And any thoughts on kind of the size or quantifying the potential buybacks?

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure. So, sort of in the mode of, like, helping you guys out to put a number on the model, if you sort of look at the way we're seeing things, obviously, we've got another [Inaudible] stuff coming next year. So, say, 13.5 percent of target. And the -- sort of using your estimates, organic capital generation minus dividends, etc., and all of the elements of uncertainty there, I think a good number to use is something like $12 billion of buybacks for, you know, this year, for 2023.

But you know, of course, the buybacks are always at the end of our capital hierarchy. So, if we have better uses for the money, those will come first. And the timing and the conditions of how much we do when is entirely at our discretion, and also noting that we are potentially going to see a Title III NPR sometime in the first quarter or maybe in the second quarter. And while that will be an NPR and only cover part of the surface area and it won't be final, so it's unlikely that it meaningfully shapes short-term decision-making.

There will be some information content about that release that could shape our decisions as well.

John McDonald -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Erika Najarian from UBS. You may proceed.

Erika Najarian -- UBS -- Analyst

Hi, Good morning. Jeremy, my first question is just, as you can imagine, following up on the NII line of questioning. You know, I appreciate that there is a significant amount of, you know, uncertainty in this year's NII forecast in particular. But, you know, to follow up with, you know, John's question, I'm wondering if you could give us sort of more specific guardrails with regards to what you're expecting for deposit attrition and deposit data -- in terms of the terminal deposit data.

I think, you know, the feedback I'm getting very early from investors is that, you know, they appreciate the headwinds that's occurring for NII this year. At the same time, you know, you have been consistently beating what seemed like conservative NII expectations for 2022, including printing a giant 20.3 billion number in the fourth quarter. So, you know, that's why I think the more specific guardrails could be, you know, very helpful as investors try to figure out what their own expectations are versus that.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Erika. So, look, I totally appreciate the desire for more specific guardrails. I would want that, too, if I were you. I do think that, you know, we're trying to be quite helpful by giving you a full-year number, which, if we're honest, involves a lot of guessing about how things will evolve throughout the year.

I think once you start giving guardrails, you implicitly assume that outcomes outside of the guardrails are, you know, very unlikely. And that's just a level of precision that we're just not prepared to get into, especially because, in the end, as I said, you know, a lot of the repricing decisions that will be faced with us as a company are, you know, respond to data in the moment at a granular level in connection with a strategy which is about, you know, growing and maintaining primary bank relationships rather than chasing, you know, every dollar of balances at any cost. So, in that context, we do expect modest balance attrition across the company for the process, as I said. Jamie, you want to supplement?

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. I just want to give a big picture about why I do not consider 74 conservative. So, the Federal Reserve reduced its balance sheet by $400 billion. 1.5 trillion came out of bank deposits.

And, you know, so investors can invest in T-bills, money market funds. And of course, banks are competing for the capital money now. And banks are all in different plays, or some banks started competing heavily. Some have a lot of excess cash and maybe compete less.

But if you look at prior -- and forget what happened in 2016. I think you make a huge mistake looking at that. We've never had Q -- this zero rates. We've never had rates go up this fast.

So, I expect there will be more migration to CD, more migration to money market funds. You know, a lot of people out there competing for it. And we're going to have this change savings rates. Now, we can do it our own pace and look what other people are doing.

We don't know the timing, but it will happen. And I just want to point out that even at 74, we're already quite good returns. And that's not -- you know, we've always pointed out to you or sometimes we're over-earning and sometimes under-earning. I would say, OK, this time we're over-earning on NII this quarter.

We're, you know, maybe over-earning on credit or maybe under-earning on something else. So, these are still very good numbers, and, you know, we're going to wait and see and we'll report to you. But I don't want to give you false notions how secure it is.

Erika Najarian -- UBS -- Analyst

And my follow-up is, is exactly in that line of questioning. You know, let's zoom out for a second here. To your point, Jamie, the returns are still good. You know, you mentioned that your outlook already captures a mild recession.

And I'm going to reask the question I asked in the third quarter. You know, as you think about 2023, do you think JPMorgan can hit that 17% ROTCE that you laid out in Investor Day even with the headwind NII and headwind in the provision?

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yes, we can. You know, but a lot of factors determine that, but yes, we can. I think when we do Investor Day in May, we may give you a more interesting number, which is what do we think our ROTCE will be if we have a real recession, which I think, even in a real recession, it would probably equal the average industrial company, which is good.

So, we're going to give you some detail around that. And those are still good returns and we can still grow. And, you know, 17 -- and remember, 17 is very good. If you compound, you know, some growth of 17%, those are extraordinary numbers.

And, you know -- and I also want to point out, we don't know exactly capital needs to be at this point. And so, we have to modify that at one point.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

And, Erika, let me just add a very minor clarifying point. I just want to be crystal clear about this. So, as you know and as we discussed a lot went through the pandemic in terms of the way we construct and build the allowance, well, it's anchored around our economists' central case forecast, which, as you correctly say, is a mild recession. Through the way we weighed the different scenarios and a range of other factors, the de facto scenario that's better than the forecast is actually more conservative than that from an allowance perspective.

So, we just want to be clear about that.

Erika Najarian -- UBS -- Analyst

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may proceed.

Ebrahim Poonawala -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Good morning. I guess maybe, Jeremy, just following up on the credit assumptions underlying. If you could, give us a sense of what's assumed in that reserve ratio at the end of the year, be it in terms of the unemployment rate, and your outlook around just a lot of chatter around commercial real estate, the struggles to reprice in the current rate backdrop. Are you concerned about that? Are you seeing pain points in CRE customers given what's happening with cap rates? And then just the overall backdrop today.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Let me just do CRE quickly, Ebrahim. As you know, our sort of multifamily commercial term lending business is really quite different from the classic office-type business. Our office portfolio is very small Class A, you know, best developers, best location.

So, the vast majority of the loan balances in commercial real estate are that sort of affordable multifamily housing, commercial term lending stuff, which is really quite secure from a credit perspective for a variety of reasons. So, we feel quite comfortable with it with the loss profile of that business. And so, yeah, so then you were asking about the assumptions in credit overall. So, yeah, as I said, like, the central case economic forecast has a mild recession and, if I remember correctly, unemployment peaking at something like 4.9%.

The adjustments that we make to the scenarios to reflect a slightly more conservative outlook have us, you know, imply a peak unemployment that's notably higher than that. So, you know, I think we have appropriately conservative assumptions about the outlook embedded in our current balances. And the trajectory that we've talked about in the presentation, they definitely can capture something more than a very mild soft landing. But of course, it wouldn't be appropriate to reflect a full-blown, hard landing in our current numbers since the probability of that is clearly well below 100%.

Ebrahim Poonawala -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Noted. And I guess just as a follow-up on, you've managed RWA growth pretty well when you look at, like, loan growth year over year, which is RWA still relatively flat. As we think about just managing capital, how should we think about the evolution of RWA? Are there still opportunities to optimize that going into whatever the Fed comes out with on Basel? Thank you.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So, there are definitely still opportunities to optimize. We're continuing to work very hard, and it's a big area of focus. Some of that is reflected in this course numbers, but on the other drivers of this quarter are what you might call more passive items, particularly in market risk RWA.

And, yeah -- but we should be clear that although we've said that the effects of capital optimization are not, you know, a material economic headwinds for the company, they're also not zero. There are real consequences to the choices that we're making as a result of this capital environment. And then in a Basel III outcome that is, you know, unreasonably punitive from a capital perspective. There will be additional consequences.

So, we obviously are hoping that's not the case and, you know, believe that's not appropriate, but we'll see what happens.

Ebrahim Poonawala -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Noted. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

Glenn Schorr -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Hi. Thank you. So, I'm curious. Let me talk leveraged loans for a second.

You've done a good job avoiding some of these -- put on these loans sort of like the better half of the last half year. So, good call on your part. Things have gotten a lot cheaper. However, bank balance sheets, not yours, are still kind of monkeyed up with a lot of the back book.

I'm curious to see if things have gotten cheap enough. Do you consider yourself back in? And how important is this in general for activity levels to pick back up, to have available funding from the big banks?

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, a couple of things there, Glenn. So, short answer is we're absolutely open for business there. Terms are better, pricing is better. We have the resources needed or fully, fully there.

No overhang, no issue. Also, I think there's a bit of a narrative that, like, activity in the market needs to overcome overhang. We're not convinced that that's true. We think that the overhang is in the numbers, and people need to look forward, and the system has the capacity to handle the risks.

So, you know, I, I recognize your point. I think it's an interesting point, but we are wide open for business and not particularly concerned about the overhang from the perspective of banks' ability to finance activity.

Glenn Schorr -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Hmm. Interesting. So, maybe a bit asking, more so. OK, Maybe, Jamie, while we have you, in the last annual letter, you talked about low competitive moats and intense competition from [Inaudible] not just fintech.

And I was just trying to think out aloud, is that better or worse that competitive landscape in a much higher rate backdrop? Maybe I'll just leave it at that to see where you go with it.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You know, I think it's the same, you know, because you have the apples who are basically doing a lot of banking services and Walmart starting theirs and, you know, obviously higher rates over some other folks in the fintech world and maybe even help some folks. So, we expect tough competition going forward in.

Glenn Schorr -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

OK. Thanks.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. You may proceed.

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you. Hi, Jeremy.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Gerard.

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Jeremy, you mentioned in your payments business that if you took out the equity investment writedowns, the growth was, you know, over 50%. Can you share with us on the equity write downs -- obviously, private equity is going through some challenging times. And I'm assuming --

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

There was a gain last year. It wasn't a writedown this year.

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Oh, I got it. OK. I thought there was a writedown there. OK.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Let me make that clear. I'm sorry about that.

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Very good. Thank you, Jamie. Can you -- just sticking just with private equity for a moment, can you share with us where the risks are in the private equity markets to JPMorgan? Is there -- when you think about it from your loan book, or is it really just in equity investments? And maybe expand upon that.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

So, you want me to [Inaudible] There's couple of things. So, Jamie's right. The headwind, you know, year on year is primarily a function of the fact that this is an investment that, you know, just because of the measurement of alternative accounting standard, we were forced to mark up previously. Um, this is, you know, uh, an investment that we got payment in kind as part of the sale of some of our internally developed initiatives.

So, anyway, it's fine. The point is there is a small writedown this quarter. And the important point there is that the core business is performing exceptionally well, both because of higher rates but also because of the strategy. The talk is talk a lot on Investor Day, paying off across fees and value-added services and so on and so forth.

And I guess your question is, like, private equity in general and how are we feeling about that space, did I hear that correctly?

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

That's correct, Jeremy. And just in terms of any lending, you know, obviously, so many of these companies have seen their valuations come down considerably. Is there any elevated risk in lending to some of these companies considering the struggles they're having?

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, I think that's a risk that we manage quite tightly as a company. Our exposures to the sort of nonbank financial sector broadly defined. And, you know, of course, as you know, we thought a little bit about what normalized wholesale charge-offs could look like through the cycle. They're obviously higher than effectively zero, which is what we have now.

But, you know, we feel confident with our credit discipline and what we have on the books.

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Great. And then as a follow-up question, you guys did a good job building up that loan loss reserve this quarter. Two questions to that. First, the Shared National Credit exam results are always released in February.

Does the reserve buildup, take some of that into account? And second, how much of the reserve build was more of a management overlay versus your base case, you know, the quantitative part of the decision-making for building up the reserve.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, I'll give you that answer, but I'm oversimplifying a lot. I would say that --

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We're oversimplifying.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yeah, I got it. The sort of conservatism of the management overlay did not change, for all intents and purposes, quarter on quarter. I think that's the best way to think about the reserve.

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Oh, and then, the Shared National --

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

[Inaudible]

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Yeah, go ahead.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

The National Shared Credit thing will not affect our results materially.

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Very good. Thank you, Jamie.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies. You may proceed.

Ken Usdin -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I was just wondering if you can help us understand the ongoing efforts on your mitigation for the RWAs in advance of all the points we've made already about the pending capital regime.

How do we -- can you help us understand what type of effect that has, if any, on parts of the income statement, whether it's NII or the trading business?

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

So, if I just take that one. Just assume we're going to have modest growth in RWA. And in every single businesses, mortgages, loans, derivatives, how we hedge CVA and stuff like that, we take actions to manage RWA. Do not -- it does not really affect the business that much.

You know, might one day, but it doesn't affect it today. And so, we don't build in -- you know, somehow, it was a little bit of this, a little bit of that. And, you know -- and the biggest opportunity down the road would be a reopening of the securitization markets. And they're still very tight.

And I think one day they will reopen.

Ken Usdin -- Jefferies -- Analyst

OK. And then on the -- one follow-up, just coming back to the reserving process, can you just help us understand, relative to the 5% peak in 3Q that you gave for your unemployment rate quarterly average and the 3.9 average baseline, just where does this fourth quarter reserve get you to? And just does that rule of thumb that you kind of gave us last quarters still stand in terms of, you know, scenario analysis on potential builds ahead of this mild recession?

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You know, can I just make it real simple? The base case is where it hits almost 5% unemployment. Then you probability wait other scenarios. That's why Jeremy is saying the reserve is higher than the base case. We didn't change the probabilities in their weighting, but of course, it got worse as the base case got worse.

That's all it is. We're still -- would -- still is a good benchmark. You know, keep in mind is, if we got to a relative adverse case, call that a 6% unemployment -- and then once you get there, you assume the average weighting you have wins. It could get better or it could get worse.

At that case, we would need about $6 billion more. When the base case itself deteriorates, we're moving closer to the relative adverse. That's all it is. These are all probabilities and possibilities and hypothetical numbers.

You know, if I were you, I'll just look at charge-offs, like, actual results. And so -- and, you know, we break this out, but it's -- you know, it's hard to describe and everything goes slightly differently. Every bank has a slightly different base case and slightly different weighting of adverse cases, etc. And so we're just trying to make it simple as possible.

Ken Usdin -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yeah, I hear you. The challenge this time is that we're going to have the income statement affect way ahead of that charge-off. So, we're all trying to adjust fit for that, but I appreciate that. Thanks, Jamie.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And once the [Inaudible] base case gets to where you expect relative adverse, would be adding the $6 billion reserves before you have charge-offs.

Ken Usdin -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Exactly. Right.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Again, and maybe just out of interest, implied in your question might be a little bit to what extent does this quarter's build sort of is a down payment on the 6 billion. And the answer to that question is much less than all of it because a lot of it was earned by long growth. And some of it, as Jamie says, is driven by the flow-through of the downward revision in the central case. You could say, subject to the caveat that this is a little bit hard, not science, that there's some down payment on the six.

Ken Usdin -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yep. Understood. Thank you for all that.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

Betsy Graseck -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Betsy.

Betsy Graseck -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

I wanted to understand a little bit about how you're thinking about managing the expense line as you go through this year. I know we talked already about how, you know, it's hard to predict. NII, obviously markets, you know, has pushes and pulls. Can you help us understand how you're thinking about delivering operating leverage, where the elements of the expense base are, you know, needing to be invested in, so you really can't touch, and where there are opportunities to potentially peel back such that if you get a weaker red line, you know, you can still deliver positive operating leverage?

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So, I mean, as we -- as you know, obviously, we tend, you know, to break down our expenses across all three categories. And sometimes, the category that you're addressing is the volume and revenue-related items, which we highlight because it should pretty symmetrically respond to a better or worse environment and thereby contribute to operating leverage. So, for example, in this year's ultimate outcome, and the number that we wound up ending in 2022, the year-on-year change in volume and revenue-related expense, still finding the number of employees show you more than yesterday, but it's probably closer to $1 million.

In other words, a year-on-year decline, whereas next year, we're assuming something more like flat. So, while the sort of year-on-year dollar change in the outlook, sort of '21 to '22 or '22 to '23 is comparable, the mix is quite different, actually. And so, for example, if we wound up being wrong about the type of environment that we're budgeting or you would expect a significant drop in the volume in revenue-related numbers in the prior outlook. And that would contribute to operating leverage.

For the rest of it, we're always generating efficiency. And we work just as hard at that, you know, whether the revenue environment is good or bad. And as you know, we invest through the cycle. And so, broadly, our investment plans really should be that sensitive to short-term changes in the environment.

Of course, certain types of things like marketing investments in the card business, in particular, the math of what we expect, the NPV of those things [Inaudible] cycle may change in a downturn, and that could produce lower investment, all else equal. But the core strategic investments that we're making to secure the future of the company are not going to get modified because of the ups and downs of the environment and --

Betsy Graseck -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

OK. And part of the reason for asking is one of the debate points on JPMorgan's stock has been around the capital charges, the capital march, and will capital be, you know, a bigger burden for you to bear as we go through the next couple of years. You know, as you deliver on the positive operating leverage side, it gives you room to absorb some more capital, obviously, and still hit those, you know, IRR and rosy targets on incremental investments. Maybe you could help us understand what level of capital increase you could absorb given the operating leverage you're expecting to generate.

And maybe that's an unfair question today, and it's a better question for Investor Day, but, you know, that's kind of the debate that's out there on the stock.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

I get it. I mean, it's a fair question. It's a good question. I'm not going to answer it super specifically.

And Jamie may have some views or two, but let me just quickly say, we've kind of said that we feel quite confident about, you know, this company's ability to generate 17% for the cycle. And that's incorporating our sense of the current environment, the operating leverage that you talked about, and the expectation of higher capital requirements with the 13 and up target in the first quarter of '24. The question of whether Basel III endgame and other factors increase that number and how much of that we can absorb and still produce those returns is, of course, impossible to answer right now. But I would remind you that it's not just denominator expansion.

You know, unreasonable capital outcomes will increase costs into the real economy, which goes into the numerator too. It's not what we want, but that is a possible outcome.

Betsy Graseck -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities. You may proceed.

Mike Mayo -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Hi. Yeah. I recognize you're evolving your business model, and you're spending money to make more money, and that your track record last decade was strong there. But, as relates to the Frank acquisition that's been in the news, I'm just wondering what that says about the financial discipline for the 15 deals that you pursued, the $7 billion of investing each year, and the one-fifth increase in expenses over three years to your guide of 81 billion in 2023.

So, it's really a question about financial discipline. And I know you can't go into details on the Frank deal. But you earned the purchase price in two days, OK, so, I get that. And if there's fraud, there's only -- you can't do anything about fraud, but still, it diverts management resources and attention.

So, maybe just, in the specifics, as it relates to the acquisition strategy, like, who sources them? Who negotiates them? Who does the due diligence? Who runs it? And ultimately, who's accountable for all these 15 different deals? And when you have investments going across business lines, which is a strength of you guys, but who's ultimately accountable when these investments don't go the way you want to? And, Jamie, you recognized a couple of years ago at Investor Day, you said, look, sometimes you're going to waste money as you're innovating and you're growing. But ultimately, who's accountable when an investment doesn't go right, like the Frank deal or another deal, or some of the other $81 billion that you expect to spend this year?

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You know, obviously, Mike, it's a very good question, which we're always concerned about. We've always talked about complacency and all things like that. So, you know, obviously, when you're getting up to bat 300 times a year, you are going to make -- have errors. And we don't want our company to be terrified of errors so we don't do anything, and if the complacency isn't burdened by bureaucracy, which is stasis and death.

So, you've got to be very careful when you make an error, when you cripple the firm. We are very disciplined, and you see that in a lot of different ways. You see it in our leverage lending book, you see the success of our investment, you see it in the quality of our products and services. You see it in our -- in all these things.

It is no different for an acquisition. There are -- so the acquisitions are done by the businesses, but there's also a centralized team that does extensive due diligence. So, the business does it. The centralized team does it.

We've been doing it for 20 years, like, we just started doing something like that. And obviously, there are always lessons learned. And, you know, one point I would tell you, the lesson learned here when this thing is out of litigation, but we're quite comfortable. And the people who are responsible, the people in the business, so they know that business did the acquisition, they are responsible, they were back.

And we expect people, when they talk to all of us, is the good, the bad, the ugly. Whenever looking for, you know, how great everything was and obviously just been in one way or another, it was a huge mistake.

Mike Mayo -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Let me -- a follow-up on that. So, that relates to the inorganic growth. As it relates to the organic growth such as in the payments business, which I know is a focus, that cuts across a lot of different business lines. So, as you invest more in payments, which is, you know, can be a 20 or 30 PE business, which could be, you know, great if you got there, who's responsible for that sort of organic investment that cuts across? You know, sometimes, you know, where you aggregate the data, you know, it's consumer, it's the investment bank.

It could be asset management, could be commercial, could be everything, in the payments. Who's responsible for those?

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

So, just to be clarified, so I would say that Marianne and Jenn, when it comes to credit, debit, checks, and all the consumer-related stuff and talk is, which, I think, was you saw the presentation about payments at Investor Day, reporting to Daniel. And that is on the wholesale payments, merchant processing, a whole bunch of stuff. And they -- and those are direct responsibilities. It's quite clear, this is an area that cuts across the company.

So, the payments working group that just spent time on that. That working group is not done in acquisition, and they don't -- and if they make -- they want to invest, which there are cases, by the way, would you -- and you'll see more this year, decided jointly, and all the way up to Daniel and me.

Mike Mayo -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

And then, last follow-up to my first start, the general comment, I mean, this is the third year in a row of about $5 billion of expense growth. And you have Slide 11 there. But that's a lot of certain front-loaded expenses for less certain back-ended benefits. How's your comfort level that you're going to see those back-ended benefits relative to the past?

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Totally. And we should -- we try to show you guys in Investor Day, every branch we open for, every banker we hire, every tech thing we do, we're pretty comfortable. There are certain things like infrastructure, like, you know, getting to the cloud or stuff like that, which, you know, you can't identify all of that. But we're pretty comfortable that we -- if they weren't working, we change them.

So, we ask ourselves that question every day. I mean, what managers or branches or certain things. And marketing, you always have to -- not quite have -- but have that number that is very specific. For the most part, a very specific dollar in, how many dollars out, not a guess, and we're pretty accurate in that kind of stuff.

And again, if there's $1 billion that we were spending, it didn't give us the return, we cut the billion.

Mike Mayo -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Steve Chubak from Wolfe Research. You may proceed.

Steven Chubak -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning. So, wanted to start off with a question on the outlook for trading in the investment banking businesses. Jeremy, given the strong pipelines you cited, I was hoping you can provide some additional color just in terms of what you're hearing from corporate clients, especially in the context of the mild recession scenario you outlined, when you would expect to see some inflection in investment banking activity.

And similar question on the trading side. You're facing difficult comps in the coming year. We still have QT, rate volatility proxies still elevated. Do you anticipate a significant moderation in trading activity or not?

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Thanks, Steve. So, let's do banking first. So, I think the thing that's interesting about banking right now is that the declines have been so significant, obviously, from very elevated levels.

But even relative to 2019, 2022 was was a relatively weak year. And as we look ahead to 2023, it's possible that the actual economic environment will be worse than it was in [Inaudible] That could conceivably make you pessimistic about the investment banking wallet outlook? And to be sure, it's not as if we're super optimistic. But it's important to note that part of the issue here is how quickly things change in 2022, specifically with respect to rates, as that affects the debt business, and valuations as it affects M&A, and you see that as well. And one of the sort of necessary conditions for people to do deals or decide to raise capital is just getting comfortable with valuation and the level of the market.

So, I think there's a chance that that actually winds up helping in 2023 in the investment banking world. Of course, we don't know. But, you know, those are some of the things that we're thinking about. Similarly, on the market side, obviously, markets had another very strong year, you know, better than we'd expected.

Since, you know, the numbers were so strong coming out of the pandemic, we were expecting more normalization than what we actually saw. And, you know, 2022 had a lot of themes. I think the active management community did well. That always helps us a little bit.

And we had volatility with relatively orderly and continued markets. As we look toward 2023, maybe some of those themes will be a little bit less obvious and that could be a little bit of a headwind. But on the other hand, it's not like the volatility is going away. And markets seem to continue to be quite orderly.

And, you know, 4.5%, 5% rate environment is probably one where there's more trading opportunities and there's 0% rate environment. So, you know, of course, we don't know. We'll see. I think you would have to probably expect some normalization there.

It's -- the numbers are really very strong in markets. But we'll see. We'll see what happens.

Steven Chubak -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

That's really helpful color. And just my final follow-up on finalization of Basel III. Sorry, Jeremy, I couldn't help myself here, but in Barr's December speech, he strongly hinted at capital requirements moving higher for you and peers. You also alluded in your comments or in response to one of the questions that the finalization of Basel III can potentially be very punitive.

Given the absence of the proposal, I was really just hoping you could speak to how you're scenario planning for the eventual finalization. And any additional detail you can offer on the areas of mitigation? I think the one issue or area of confusion is that one of the biggest sources of RWA inflation is op risk, which can't really be mitigated. So, what are the actions that you can take to really offset some of those potential headwinds?

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So, see, I'd love to get into more detail here, but I just think that the question of how to mitigate is really hard to discuss in a lot of detail until we see an actual proposal. You know, and the reason that we talk about potentially punitive increases, I mean, if you study this issue closely, is just to point out that under the version of the world where you get the worst outcome in all of the different moving parts of this thing, it's a very significant increase to the capital requirements of the system as a whole. And given how strong the system is today, that just, like, doesn't make sense to us.

So. we just want to say that. But yeah, Jamie, please.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Let me just-- look, you guys know this operators' capital and trading bug, the CCAR or G-SIFI, all those moving parts. Let's just see what they are. We'll deal with them when we get there and, you know -- and then we'll figure out what we have to modify in business and stuff like that. We don't think it's necessary to increase capital ratios.

We're quite clear on that. What are the new numbers we put in the top of the press release was our total loss-absorbing capacity. So, we have now almost 500 billion. I mean, really, like, at one point, when it's 500 billion of that, $1 trillion liquidity, all those thing's enough.

And so -- but let's just see what it is. You know, they're going to work through whether international laws or international requirements. You know, we're hoping that America is the same as international. That would be nice.

G-SIFI is supposed to be correct. Let's see if that happens. Let's just say we don't have a guess. And, you know, it's -- if the number too high, we're going to tell you what we can do about it.

I don't know.

Steven Chubak -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Fair enough.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

[Inaudible] Just minor expansion. Just to expand on that. On Jamie's point -- it's important to be clear -- there will be time to adjust. You know, like there's a long road from the NPR to, you know -- supports Jamie's point.

Let's see what it is. And then we'll --

Steven Chubak -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Fair enough. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Matthew O'Connor from Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.

Matt O'Connor -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Good morning. How are you guys think of the managing the securities book given the outlook of lower deposits? Obviously, the yield curve is quite inverted depending on what part you're looking at, or most part, frankly. And at the same time, you know, the securities book is cash flowing a lot less than it was a couple of years ago, just given the rate environment.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You know, just remember that the security book is an outcome of investing that basically excess deposits. And you have like 2.4 trillion deposits and $1 trillion of loans and things like that. So -- and we manage it to manage interest rate exposure, all these various things. And so -- and then, when you say the size of it, we forecast, which I'm not going to give you the numbers -- we forecast every quarter what we're going to buy, what we're going to sell, how much is coming in, and how much we need to do liquidity.

And we adjust it all the time based upon deposits coming down and loans and stuff like that. Obviously, what you get to invest in is, you know, a much higher rate today. And, you know, you see JPMorgan's loss in the ACM loan book as a percentage, much lower than most of the people. Remember, we're kind of conservative there too.

Matt O'Connor -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

So, I guess a bigger-picture question. You know, we've seen such a drop in, you know, really five, 10-year part of the curve and even further out. And, you know, banks aren't really buying. The Fed is selling.

And I guess I was wondering if you have thoughts on, you know, who's buying and what's driving the rates so much lower than -- you know, most people thought they should be up.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

That -- we do. But you should read -- get the House reports to get that. We look at what everybody is doing, pension plans, governments. We look at every part of the curve.

We look at what other banks are doing. I think I mentioned earlier in this call, banks are in different positions. Some have -- some may have to sell securities to finance their loan books. We obviously don't know.

So, people are in a different position. And Jeremy pointed out, it's very important, that yield curve will not be the same six months from now that it is today. Well, we use that to kind of look forward. It's not actually our forecast, even though it will be wrong.

And the investment portfolio will be invested when there are opportunities. We bought a lot of Ginnie Maes when there was, you know, a 60 OAS spread. We sold -- one of the reasons we take securities losses, because that gives you $10-plus billion you can reinvest to bigger, more attractive securities.

Matt O'Connor -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The final question is coming from the line of Andrew Lim from Societe Generale. You may proceed.

Andrew Lim -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So, the first one on credit quality. And thanks for giving us commentary on the shape of NCOs, I guess, specifically for credit cards popping out at the end of this year.

Could you give us a bit more color on how reserve builds should shape out this year? I guess, you know, with respect to CECL, I'm guessing that it should top out quite soon. That's my first question.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

[Inaudible] OK --

Andrew Lim -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

Just assuming all your macro assumptions are unchanged and only macro assumptions are unchanged and ready to [Inaudible] and so forth.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think we've talked about CECL quite a bit. And I think there's some decent color there in terms of Jamie's, you know, 6 billion over a few quarters in a world where the economic outlook is worse than it is today. We're definitely not going to get into the business of giving you an outlook for a sequential evolution of the loan loss allowance that, you know, it's appropriate today and it will evolve as a function of the environment.

Andrew Lim -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

Sure. OK. Let's drill down into NII then. I just want to square a few comments made there, Jaime.

So, if I heard you correctly, I think you're still talking about sequential increases in NII. So, I guess looking toward like 20 billion-plus for 1Q, maybe even 2Q. So, I guess we're hitting about 40 billion for 1H, and then a sharp drop-off. As, say, deposit costs increase, maybe we get a few Fed fund rate cuts as well.

Is that the way we should be thinking about it?

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, no. So, let me uncontroversially say no, there just really wouldn't. So, the -- my comments about sequential increases were to address the sort of obvious conclusion, which you are somewhat correctly drawing from the slide, which is that in a world where we're exiting the fourth quarter run rate at 81, and we're telling our ADX markets or whatever, and we're telling you 74 for the full year, there are obviously some sequential declines in there somewhere as a function of what plays out. We're simply saying don't project those into the future in perpetuity.

Once things adjust, we will return to normal sequential growth. That answer --

Andrew Lim -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

Right. But you -- yeah. No, no, sure. Absolutely.

That makes sense. That's great. Thanks for that.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Thanks.

Operator

We have no additional questions in queue. I would now like to hand the call back to Mr. Barnum.

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

That's it. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. We'll talk to you all soon.

Operator

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Jeremy Barnum -- Chief Executive Officer

John McDonald -- Autonomous Research -- Analyst

Erika Najarian -- UBS -- Analyst

Jamie Dimon -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Ebrahim Poonawala -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Glenn Schorr -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Gerard Cassidy -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Ken Usdin -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Betsy Graseck -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Mike Mayo -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Steven Chubak -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Matt O'Connor -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Andrew Lim -- Societe Generale -- Analyst

More JPM analysis

All earnings call transcripts