Hawaiian (HA) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Hawaiian (HA 1.24%)
Q3 2023 Earnings Call
Oct 24, 2023, 4:30 p.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, greetings and welcome to the Hawaiian Holdings third-quarter 2023 financial results call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Marcy Morita, managing director, investor relations. Please go ahead.

Marcy Morita -- Managing Director, Investor Relations

Thank you, Ryan. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Hawaiian Holdings' third-quarter 2023 results conference call. Here with me in Honolulu are Peter Ingram, president and chief executive officer; Brent Overbeek, chief revenue officer; and Shannon Okinaka, chief financial officer. We also have several other members of our management team in attendance for the Q&A.

Peter will provide an overview of our performance, Brent will discuss revenue, and Shannon will discuss costs and the balance sheet. At the end of the prepared remarks, we'll open the call up for questions. By now, everyone should have access to the press release that went out at about 4:00 Eastern Time today. If you have not received the release, it is available on the Investor Relations page of our website, hawaiianairlines.com.

During our call today, we refer at times to adjusted or non-GAAP numbers and metrics. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP numbers and metrics can be found at the end of today's press release posted on the Investor Relations page of our website. As a reminder, the following prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements, including statements about our future plans and potential future financial and operating performance. Management may also make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and do not guarantee future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them.

We refer you to Hawaiian Holding's recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. These include the most recent annual report filed on Form 10-K, as well as subsequent reports filed on Forms 10-Q and 8-K. I will now turn the call over to Peter.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Mahalo, Marcy. Aloha, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I want to start off by thanking our dedicated and compassionate team members who continue to deliver outstanding hospitality to our guests in an ever-changing external environment. This quarter, as tragic wildfires destroyed parts of Maui, my colleagues once again rose to the occasion and answered the call for our guests and the communities we serve.

And even as we face more than our fair share of challenges, our team remains focused on important initiatives that make us a better airline, including the debut of Amazon freighter flights earlier this month, the unveiling of our 787 interiors, and the successful first-of-type installation of Starlink Wi-Fi on an A321 aircraft. I'll talk more in a few moments about each of these initiatives. Before that, I'll delve a bit more deeply into the events in Maui. While, today, we will necessarily address the economic consequences, we must not lose sight of the enormous human cost of the tragedy.

We are a tight-knit community, and everybody at Hawaiian knows someone whose life was touched by this tragedy. For the first three days following the fires, we had a very focused mission with three essential elements. As the largest provider of passenger transportation to the islands, we took the lead in the evacuation of displaced visitors and residents and getting first responders to where they needed to be. We made sure that we supported our team on the ground in Maui Airport with whatever resources they needed.

And we confirm that each of our 500-plus teammates who live or work on Maui was safe. Each of these objectives was achieved in the 72 hours following the fires, and we continue to support what will be a long recovery for the community through charitable giving and the volunteer activities of our team. In the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, new bookings to Maui slowed to a trickle, and we saw large volumes of close-in cancellations for Maui trips. A portion of this close-in business shifted to other islands, notably, Kauai.

Booking trends stabilized in the weeks that followed, and cancellations have abated, but it will be a while yet before demand fully returns to the robust levels we saw earlier in the summer. Load factors both on our North America and neighbor island flights to and from Maui remain below typical levels but are improving. October will be better than September, which at a low point in load factors, and the trajectory we're seeing is encouraging. In the current environment, accommodations inventory has not been a constraint, rather it has been the hesitation of travelers about coming to Maui in the wake of the fires. It is important to note that almost all of West Maui's hotels were physically unaffected by the fire, and the phased reopening of properties nearest to the wildfire area began earlier this month.

Yesterday, Maui County announced that this phased reopening will be extended to all of the Key West Maui resort areas on November 1st. On September 5th, we updated our guidance to incorporate the impact from the wildfires to revenue, for what we knew at the time, and later in this call, Brent will provide more details on the current outlook. The other significant near-term challenge we've been navigating is the availability of our A321 fleet. Just before our last quarterly call, we learned of new inspection requirements for the Pratt and Whitney engines to power these aircraft.

The impact, as understood at the time, was incorporated in our September 5th investor update. Since then, in addition to receiving more details about inspection requirements beyond the end of this year, we have also seen a number of engine removals not associated with the powder metal inspection issue. These removals contributed to an elevated cancellation rate in the early days of the current quarter. We currently have two aircraft grounded, which is an improvement over the earlier part of this month, and expect to have between two and four aircraft out of service at any point in time over the next few months. In response to the most recent engine removals, we have adjusted our schedules to accommodate up to four out-of-service aircraft through 4four Q and into the beginning of next year.

We expect the situation for 2024 will improve as our engine inventory will be bolstered by the return of several engines that are already in the MRO pipeline. We have reached terms with Pratt and Whitney on short-term compensation for their failure to provide required engine spares over the course of the past several months, but this interim agreement will expire later this quarter. We're in ongoing discussions with Pratt on further compensation beyond the scope of this short-term agreement and, most importantly, to provide more certainty about engine availability so that we can plan more effectively for the medium and long term. After some external challenges to reliability in the first half of the year, our on-time performance steadily improved from July to August to September. The latest published DOT report for July showed us reclaiming the No.

1 spot in the industry on on-time performance, and I expect our August and September results to be at or near to the top of the pack. In October, as I noted earlier, we have experienced a bout of cancellations primarily driven by the A321 fleet. That underscores the importance of getting more certainty about the availability of engines. We are encouraged by the improved performance in the third quarter and will not be satisfied until we are once again consistently at the top of the industry for operational performance.

I'll now touch on a few highlights of our commercial performance that Brent will address in more detail. Up until the wildfires on Maui, our revenue was tracking ahead of the expectations we had entering the quarter, with particular strength from the US mainland to Hawaii. Sydney and Incheon continue to produce strong results. International performance was not materially affected by the Maui wildfires.

On the neighbor island front, we continue to comprehensively outperform Southwest by wide margins in terms of load factor and unit revenue. These facts reinforce our conviction that the way we take care of our guests and deliver authentic Hawaiian hospitality makes us the clear carrier of choice for travel between the islands. In Japan, the encouraging trends we noted during last quarter's call continued through the summer. Since May, we have seen a sustained recovery of Japan point-of-sale bookings on top of the ongoing high level of U.S. point-of-sale demand.

In the coming quarters, we'll see an increase in supply in the Japan-to-Hawaii market as relief from use-it-or-lose-it requirements for slots and route authorities expire at the end of this month. We'll need to see continued recovery in Japan point-of-sale demand to keep pace with this increasing supply, but the trend is encouraging and certainly a welcome change from where things stood at the beginning of the year. We also aren't slowing down on our execution of initiatives as we take important projects across the finish line and achieve major milestones on others. On October 2nd, we flew our first A330-300 freighter revenue flight from Cincinnati to San Bernardino. As a reminder, this is the beginning of a contractual relationship that envisions initial growth to a 10-aircraft fleet in the months ahead.

The first flight this month was a significant milestone as we embark on this new venture to provide important diversified growth for our business. Continuing on a positive note, we announced the initial route deployments for our new Boeing 787 Dreamliner. The aircraft will debut on our April 15th flight from Honolulu to San Francisco before transitioning to flights between Honolulu and Los Angeles, as well as Maui and Los Angeles in May. We have firm orders for 12 787 scheduled between early next year and 2027.

We also have several A330 passenger aircraft leases ending in this time frame, giving us options to balance growth and replacement. We're excited to get this fleet in the air next year. It's not only the vehicle of growth for our passenger business for the next few years, but the larger 34-seat premium cabin allows us to expand this high-performing, margin-enhancing element of the business. Earlier this month, we completed the installation of Starlink connectivity on an A321.

The installation and testing was successful, and we are currently completing the FAA certification process before installing the technology on the rest of the A321 fleet. We'll go through the same process with the A330 fleet next year. As a reminder, we're the first major airline to deploy this product, and it will be the fastest, most capable Wi-Fi available. Our award-winning hospitality already makes us the preferred carrier in the markets we serve.

Complementing this with an unparalleled Wi-Fi experience will further set the Hawaiian experience apart and grow our revenue premium. I'm immensely proud of what our team is accomplishing and the dedication of our employees. They were aloha for one another, and the -- their unmatched hospitality they extend to our guests and the communities we serve will ensure Hawaiian's success in the years ahead. In a few weeks, we will celebrate 94 years of service to Hawaii.

As I reflect on this 94th year, which has had its share of challenges, I note that all of those challenges, whether engine issues or market issues or otherwise, are near-term and transient. The core strength of our brand and business model and the effect of the major investments we are making now will be durable and create value into the future. Now, let me turn it over to Brent to go over our commercial performance and outlook in more detail.

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Thank you, Peter. Aloha, everyone. In the third quarter, system RASM was in line with our revised guidance, down just under 6% year over year. Total revenue for the quarter was down about 2%, and we operated 4% more capacity versus the same period in 2022.

Our capacity came in on the lower end of the guidance due to the reductions made to accommodate the Pratt and Whitney engine shortfall. As Peter mentioned, leading up to the Maui wildfires, demand was strong and revenue was trending positively with RASM slightly ahead of guidance. Immediately after the fires, demand and market pricing to Maui rapidly declined, resulting in deceleration of RASM momentum disproportionately concentrated in the Maui market. The impact from the wildfires amounted to approximately $25 million in lost revenue, and for context, leading up to the fires, the Maui market represented approximately 22% of our system revenue. In looking specifically at the North America entity, prior to the fires, demand was strong and unit revenue was up about 3% year over year. Following the Maui fires in early August, there was a sharp deceleration in demand for Maui travel over the remainder of the quarter.

This resulted in North America entity PRASM finishing down 10.5% year over year for the post-fire portion of the quarter, and pricing was down 41.7% year over year for the Maui markets in the same period. On our neighbor island routes, the fires had a significant impact on both demand and average fare. Third-quarter load factor was 74%, down five points year over year on a 9% increase in capacity. The competitive dynamic in the market remains the same. We continue to compete strongly for volume and have maintained our significant lead over Southwest in load factor and PRASM. The most recent DOT statistics for the second quarter show us at 75% load factor, compared to 47% for Southwest, and a PRASM of $0.301, compared to a sub $0.15 PRASM for Southwest.

These results demonstrate clearly that we are the interisland carrier of choice. Although we are now lapping Southwest's $39 fares with last seat availability from last year, the Maui wildfires had depressed average fares for a period of time. That said, we are seeing recent improvement in average fares, signaling that the low point for yields is likely behind us. We saw a tangible recovery in Japan during the third quarter. Load factors were in the upper 80s and approaching historical norms on a smaller capacity base for Hawaiian and the industry. Third-quarter industry capacity was about 56% of 2019, and we expect total Japan-to-Hawaii industry capacity to increase to almost 70% of 2019 levels by the end of the quarter.

With capacity increasing, we've seen sequential slowing in unit revenue but anticipate that improves as we head into 2024 and Japan point-of-sale traffic continues to recover. In our international network outside of Japan, U.S. point-of-sale traffic remained very strong. Our New Zealand, Australia, and Korea markets have not been significantly impacted by the Maui fires.

Passenger revenue for our international routes, including Japan, is up over 90% for the third quarter of this year compared to 2022. Korea, in particular, continues to be a strong market. Average fares in Australia and New Zealand are positive compared to 2019, but we are facing some difficult comps due to the surge of pent-up travel demand in 2022. Last week, we announced that we will turn our year-round thrice weekly Honolulu to Auckland service into a seasonal route during the New Zealand summer. Auckland demand remains strong in the summer season, reinforced by strong U.S. point-of-sale traffic, and this move to seasonal service reflects our focus on being more nimble and adaptable with schedules to address demand seasonality across our network.

Our co-brand credit card had another good quarter, with third-quarter revenue up almost 2% over the same period in 2022. This year's strong credit card performance, particularly on new card acquisition, reinforces our confidence in the growth potential of this business and the deep demand for Hawaii vacations as a favorite reward for cardholders. Looking ahead to the next quarter, non-Maui bookings continue to improve albeit with lower fare levels in the main cabin. Maui bookings have been improving, especially closer to departure, although at significantly reduced yields. For international, we're satisfied with the return of Japan point-of-sale demand, which is creating a larger overall demand pool for our service, albeit at fares in the short term that are sequentially lower than we anticipate going forward. While we are seeing continued year-over-year improvements in international RASM, the growth is sequentially slower compared to the third quarter of 2023.

For the network as a whole, we expect RASM to be down approximately 11.5% on capacity growth of about 3% for the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2022. Headwinds to RASM are similar to those shared in previous quarters with the addition of short-term effects of the Maui fires. These headwinds include six points from the deterioration in revenue due to the Maui fires, which we anticipate will improve over time; about four points in spoilage, and this should be the last quarter of a challenging comparison as we lap last year's high watermark for spoilage; and about one point from cargo as activity normalizes to 2019 levels from the highs of 2022. Now that we have better clarity for the remainder of the year on the engine shortfall from Pratt and Whitney and the impact from the Maui fires, our capacity guidance for the full year has been revised to up 7.5% to up 8.5%.

We continue to remain confident in the core revenue-generating capability of our business. We are the carrier of choice and outperform competitors in each of the core Hawaii markets that we serve. The headwinds on fares and demand we are facing from the Maui wildfires should be short term in nature, and we will overcome those in time. The A321 engine issues are near-term challenge, but with the arrival of our 787s, we're looking forward to opportunities for longer-haul growth in 2024. Once we obtain certainty on our A321 engines, we are also encouraged about the plans we can develop with our expanded fleet.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Shannon.

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Brent. Aloha, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We ended the third quarter with an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $12 million, or an adjusted loss of $1.06 per share, which is about $40 million lower than we had forecast at the beginning of the quarter, primarily driven by the impact of the Maui wildfires and increase in fuel prices. Unit costs, excluding fuel, came in at the higher end of the updated guidance range from September 5, primarily due to lower-than-expected capacity as a result of the A321neo engine and operational challenges. Given the close-in nature of the cancellations, it was difficult to significantly reduce our costs to match the decreased capacity although certain variable costs, such as fuel consumption and landing fees, were avoided.

With respect to our balance sheet and liquidity, our cash position decreased in the third quarter resulting from normal ATL seasonality, exacerbated by refunds and reduced bookings as a result of the Maui fires. With that said, we have $1.4 billion of liquidity, which includes a $235 million undrawn revolver, which is about 50% of our trailing 12-month revenue and twice our pre-pandemic liquidity target. While our liquidity remains strong, we will likely finance the first several of our 787 deliveries. We received proposals from several lenders and lessors and will finalize our financing plan for 2024 soon. In addition to our existing unencumbered assets, the 787 is a very financial airplane, and Hawaiian is an attractive name to the financing community. Our fourth-quarter costs remain elevated as we approach the conclusion of preparations to bring the 787s and A330 freighters into service throughout 2024.

We're currently carrying about 25% more pilots on our payroll than we did in 2019 for about the same amount of capacity. As the capacity that we're planning for comes online, our training bubble will deflate and pilot productivity will improve. We expect this improvement to grow throughout 2024 and decrease from a CASM impact of $0.26 in the fourth quarter of '23 to $0.14 in the fourth quarter of '24 at the then-current pilot rates, which is a 50% improvement. We expect our fourth-quarter unit costs, excluding fuel and special items, to be about 8% higher than the same period in 2022 with similar drivers to the prior quarter, including approximately 5 percentage points from increases in labor costs and benefits, which result primarily from the new pilot contracts and the higher number of pilots in training and other rate increases; about one point from a higher number of heavy maintenance events; one point from higher airport rates; and two points for closing cancellations which resulted in lower capacity, partially offset by Pratt and Whitney compensation credits for grounded aircraft.

Commensurately, we expect our full-year CASMex guidance to be up 4% to 5.5%. We expect the benefits from initiatives, such as our A330 maintenance insourcing, our new passenger service system, and CBA-related work rule changes to ramp up in 2024 as these investments mature. And we will pursue further operating cost improvement through continued investment in technology and analytics to drive increased productivity. Turning to our fleet plans.

We have executed two-year extensions for four A330 leases that would have otherwise expired in 2024. In addition to ownership cost improvements, the extensions will collectively enable us to maintain our network plans and mitigate the impact of the ongoing A321 engine challenges. Including the new lease terms on these aircraft, we have a total of 12 aircraft leases that will expire between 2025 and 2029, if not extended. It's exciting to be at a point where we'll soon start to see an acceleration of the benefits from investments that have been drivers of increased expense this year.

While we're facing a number of near-term challenges, the durable financial foundation that we have built enables us to endure them and emerge stronger. If the last few years have taught us anything, it's how to be nimble and adjust to circumstances, which we'll continue to do as long as necessary. And with that, we can open up the call for questions.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Conor Cunningham -- Melius Research -- Analyst

Hi, everyone. Thank you. You know, when looking at passenger trends to Hawaii, it seems like inbound travelers from Japan, I know that recovery is kind of stalled out the last two months or so, you know, through October. You know, just curious if you're actually seeing that in the data right now, and then, you know, maybe any thoughts on what the slowdown is.

I know, Brent, you mentioned, you know, the lower -- lower fares and whatnot. Just I'm just curious on the recovery. It just seems like it should be doing better. I don't know if there's any, like, Maui impact from that as well.

Thank you.

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Yeah, Conor, Japan had a -- really strong August holidays, and so the front and middle part of the month there performed, you know, exceptionally well, and there was -- we had some of our own and there was some additional industry capacity in that window. And so, you know, certainly that helped with arrivals. They have -- you know, we were still running kind of load factors in -- in the mid to upper 80s. and so demand overall remained strong.

As we alluded to, certainly, we've -- we've got some more capacity online. The industry has more capacity coming online in the fourth quarter. That is generally getting filled up, but like I said in my prepared remarks, it is -- we're starting -- we're seeing a little bit of what we believe is kind of short-term pressure on -- on Japan point-of-sale yields as that -- as that capacity comes back online. But we're also encouraged with the strength of the U.S. point-of-sale market and the amount of traffic that we're generating there.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And maybe just to follow up that a little bit and underscore something that -- that Brent said in his answer, it's been a while since we -- since we saw strong traffic coming out of Japan. So, it's probably useful to remind people that there is a seasonality to it. And that, you know that seasonality really has a pretty strong peak in late July, throughout the month of August, and into the early part of September. And so, some of what you may be seeing in the numbers, Conor, is just reflecting of -- of the run-up toward very full flights on that peak and then a little quieter period now before things pick up seasonally again toward the end of the year.

Conor Cunningham -- Melius Research -- Analyst

OK, I'm much better with straight lines. It's a little bit easier for me. Then just on -- on the -- on the GTF stuff, you know, your -- your schedule capacity, I think, is down two points from just last week. And I think, you know, your guidance today kind of implies another one-point deceleration.

Just, you know, just -- is that the type of lead time that they're giving you? Just it seems really tough from your -- from your standpoint to manage the business. If they're only getting like a two-week heads-up on one shot, visits need to happen. And then, maybe within that, is the Amazon flying included in your capacity guidance, or is that something that's separate like block hours or whatever? Thank you.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, let me -- let me start with the -- the GTF, and Brent can correct me if I'm wrong, but essentially, what we've talked about on the call today in terms of our outlook for the schedule and having for, you know, the ability to withstand over the next few months for AOG is reflected in the schedules that are published now that -- all that information was published. So, there's not another shoe to drop that we are aware of at this point from that. I would say, you know, we had a pretty clear picture about what the inspection issue would drive for the back part of this year. Those were a number of removals that we were required to make by September 15th, which is the news we got just before our call three months ago.

What -- what changed in -- in late September and into October that has required us to cut a little further here is we had some unscheduled removals, which can -- which can and does happen on any fleet from time to time. But, you know, in the circumstance we're in right now where there are limited to no spare engines available on the market to support that, every one of those removals drives another aircraft on ground because we aren't sitting with a bunch of -- of spare engines in our hangar right now to be able to -- to accommodate that. Although, you know, candidly, from a contractual standpoint, we should be having that, but -- but we don't have those spare engines available. So, we've tried to adjust the schedule now to provide a little bit of buffer so we don't end up in a situation like we did over the last couple of months.

I will admit, my crystal ball is not perfect on this, but we do feel better about the engine availability situation as we get into the first quarter. And really, you know, the back part of the first quarter and further in the year, we have a number of engines that are in the MRO pipeline right now that are coming back. So, from a Hawaiian Airlines perspective, our engine availability should be improving as those come back. But they're -- you know, obviously, the situation has been frustrating, and we have been living a little bit too close to a razor's edge in terms of the ability of the market to withstand it.

And, you know, we really do need Pratt to provide us with more certainty going forward. I think the other part of your question was about the -- the Amazon flying, the freighter flying, and whether that affects our statistics, and, you know, certainly, it wouldn't affect ASMs. I think it is incorporated into our expectations about -- about fuel burn and our consumption. And so, it's built into the economics and the -- and the guidance as well.

The cost impact is reflected in the guidance.

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Conor, obviously, there are no seats on those -- all those aircraft, so they're not in ASMs. We do have the impact included in our RASM CASMex fuel guidance. But really, for the fourth quarter, they're really small. As that starts to get -- have a bigger impact, we'll -- we'll break it out for you just to at least show what the direct cost impact is to CASM and revenue for RASM.

Conor Cunningham -- Melius Research -- Analyst

 Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hillary Cacanando -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Hi, this is Hillary Cacanando calling in for Michael Linenberg. Thank you for taking my questions. So, you mentioned that you have reached a short-term compensation agreement with Pratt and Whitney, and last quarter, you said that you'll get compensated in the form of maintenance credits. Is that still the case? So, it -- has that changed at all to perhaps include cash compensation, and -- and could you talk about what the timing of that payment will be? Thank you.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so the compensation is in the form of maintenance credits. We -- it gets recorded as an offset on our maintenance materials and repairs line. And effectively, it -- it helps to offset payments we would make for power-by-the-hour charges.

Hillary Cacanando -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

And then, will that be reflected for the -- the fourth quarter in terms of timing?

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

It'll be reflected as we -- as we use the credits. So, as we start incurring -- we incur power by the hour charges, we'll -- we'll offset it with the credit.

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

We've been accruing that over the past couple of quarters, so it is reflected in -- in the -- the third quarter. And I think some may have been reflected in the second quarter as well, and it does carry into the fourth.

Hillary Cacanando -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

OK, got it. And then -- and then, you announced a new -- new flight to Tokyo Haneda. I was just wondering if you could talk about how the bookings have been looking.

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Yeah, I would say bookings are certainly looking solid, and in particular, it looks -- looks quite good as we continue to ramp our capacity up in the fourth quarter. And I think, overall, we're -- we're encouraged with demand, particularly the strength of U.S. point-of-sale demand, and will continue to build on Japan point-of-sale. So, I think overall, you know, we feel we feel positive with where we're at in Haneda

Hillary Cacanando -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Catie O'Brien -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Hi, everyone. Thanks for the time. I guess, first, you know, I want to say my thoughts have been with you all since the devastating Maui wildfires. And I had a question on Maui.

So, I know you've spoken to the impact on demand and lost revenue in the quarter with things still trending below normal historical but -- but starting to pick up. Can you just speak to how bookings look for Maui for the holidays, and any early look on spring break into next year?

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Yeah, so right now, the holidays, both Thanksgiving and Christmas, generally look pretty good. You know, pricing -- so, those are really strong demand periods, and so average fares in those remain pretty strong. So, I think we're -- we're encouraged with that. I would say, in the context of spring break, it's still a little early on that.

You know, our load factors at the end of the first quarter, they're still relatively low and there was a bit of a pause around the event where folks were a little bit uncertain about planning further out travel. We have seen, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, Catie, that in-close demand has been pretty strong. And so, I think things have been pretty -- you know, have been fine for the spring. But as we get out of the fourth quarter into the first quarter, we anticipate those will continue to strengthen.

Catie O'Brien -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Great. Thanks for that. And then, a two-part question on 787 if you'll allow it. I guess, first, quickly, why is that starting service on the West Coast? Is there some like operational consideration, or, you know, I just figured that would ultimately be deployed international? And then -- and then, maybe one for Shannon, just like, you know, as you send out the RFPs for the financing of those first couple of 787s, you know, what markets are initially looking attractive? You know, I've heard sale-leasebacks have gotten a bit more expensive over the last six months, but -- but not sure if, on a relative basis maybe, that's still more attractive than traditional debt financing, you know, given where interest rates are today.

I appreciate all the time, everyone.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, why don't I take the -- the first part of that and then turn it over to Shannon to talk about the -- the financing? It's actually quite an insightful question, Catie, because, you know, as I think about the 787, it is our most fuel-efficient -- will be our most fuel-efficient long-haul airplane. It's got greater capacity and it's got a big premium cabin, so you want to put it in a market like New York where you really check every -- every box of high-premium demand, ability to fill up -- fill up the airplane even on -- on, you know, days in the middle of the week and really take advantage of the fuel efficiency. There are operational considerations that compel us. But the first one on the West Coast, though, one is we need a place where we can do overnight maintenance on the aircraft, and that is initially going to be in Los Angeles, as we start ramping up.

And, you know, we need a place where the aircraft is going to be on the ground for eight to 10 hours a night so that, every third day or so, we can get some maintenance attention on it. And we don't have that on our longer-haul flights where the aircraft tend to turn after being on the ground for just -- just a couple of hours. The other thing it helps us with is building up initial experience for our pilots on that aircraft. You know, they -- having a shorter route to the West Coast gives us more takeoffs and landings and the ability to -- to build up that experience.

And so -- but those two factors push us to starting on the West Coast, but we're definitely going to want to stretch the legs of that aircraft as we get deeper into '24 and into 2025.

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and I'll take up the RFP on the financing. To your point, we are looking at a variety of -- of different vehicles. Unfortunately, we're not going to get to the sub-1% Japanese yen debt that we did back with the A321neos. But we're finding that there is a lot of opportunity, albeit a little bit more expensive than what we've had on our books prior.

But we see the regular debt financing markets, the public markets, as well as some opportunities in Japan that we're pursuing. So, we're still in some of the initial phases of the process, but we'll provide updates as we progress.

Catie O'Brien -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Oh, we'd all love some sub-1% financing. All right. Thank you so much for the time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Didora with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Andrew Didora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. First question for -- for Brent, just wanted to ask about Japan and the cadence of the recovery expectations there. I think you said in your prepared remarks that Japan would be kind of -- Japan capacity would be 70% recovered by the end of the fourth quarter relative to 2019. How are you thinking about the build back there in 2024? And when do you think your Japan entity could be back to 2019 levels of capacity?

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

So, we think that, kind of industry, 2019 ends up with a little bit of a strange comp as you flip from -- from 4Q to 1Q. You know, we -- from what we see in kind of industry schedules, industry capacity, excluding us, is -- is pretty flat quarter to quarter as we go from December into the first quarter. We ramp up a little bit more capacity in terms of our night slot and service to Kona and -- and our -- our midnight frequency to Honolulu. And so, that will ramp itself up over the first quarter and have a little bit more growth in -- in Japan capacity.

Obviously, the -- the longer -- the further we get away from Japan opening up is -- allows greater time for booking curve and allows more traffic to come on the books. And so, we're, you know, we're trying to match our capacity coming back in line with -- with Japan point-of-origin travel, in particular, continued to strengthen.

Andrew Didora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

OK, thank you for that. And then, maybe a two-parter for -- for Shannon. Thank you for the color around liquidity in your prepared remarks. Do you have -- what percentage of your assets are currently unencumbered? And then, my second part of my question, are you seeing any credit card holdbacks given the cancellations you're experiencing? Thanks.

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I don't know the exact percentage, but we've got a number of aircraft that remain unencumbered to the value of about $560 million. On the credit card holdback, no, we were not seeing anything like that. I think we've still got a very strong business. Bookings are beginning to build back, so we haven't had even any discussions about things like holdbacks.

Andrew Didora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Helane Becker with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Helane Becker -- TD Cowen -- Analyst

Thanks very much, operator. Hi, everybody, and thank you very much for the time. I just have a couple of clarification questions, actually. I saw an article this morning that talked about you guys signing up Lufthansa Technik to do A330 and A321 maintenance.

And I'm just kind of wondering if that article was accurate and what the timing of that will be.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, the article is accurate. I believe the agreement there is for Lufthansa Technik to provide component support for A321s and A330s. And I think we're also going to use them for our 787s. So, this was business that we had -- we had elsewhere previously, and when we did our A330 insourcing, it gave us an opportunity to run a comprehensive RFP and get the -- the best market terms that were available.

And so, we've -- we've done that. So, it's really around providing, you know, component support for -- for various various pieces of equipment on the aircraft.

Helane Becker -- TD Cowen -- Analyst

OK, that's really helpful. Thank you. And then, for my follow-up question, so you have one aircraft that started service for Amazon. And I'm just kind of wondering if you could talk about, you know, it's been about two weeks and we're just talking about the performance and whether you're going to in 20 -- I guess it would be 2025, right, break out how -- break out that revenue line or included in cargo and other revenue.

I don't know, how should we think about, like, parsing that out if at all?

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, let me -- let me start, and then Shannon can -- can follow up or correct me if I get anything wrong here. In terms of -- of the operating performance, we're -- we're pleased how things have -- have been going so far. It's great to -- to get into a place where, you know, instead of just incurring start-up costs and no revenue, we're operating revenue flights and -- and getting the business growing. Our on-time performance has been very good so far, which is crucial in this arrangement, part of the reason why we were sought out to -- to bid for this work.

So, it's -- it's great to be up and running. In terms of -- of how it appears on the -- on the income statement, I'll let Shannon go through it in -- in more detail, but you know, essentially, right now, it's not particularly material. And so, we're not breaking anything out. As it becomes more material over time, we're going to look at the best way to break it out.

And Shannon can talk about what things that we're thinking about.

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so, for sure, Helane, it would be part of other revenue, but as it gets more material, and right now, we're anticipating 2025, to your point, we actually move ourselves into segment reporting. And we haven't quite finalized exactly how we define the segments, but I would think that however we do the segment reporting, you should see more clearly what part of our direct revenues and costs are -- are Amazon related. And we'll have to do some allocations in that accounting as well, but it'll come through the segment reporting piece of our S2 reports.

Helane Becker -- TD Cowen -- Analyst

OK, thank you. When you -- when you -- just one other clarification question. When you report from -- on Form-41 cargo volumes, will the Amazon volumes be included in that, or are they separated?

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

I'm going to have to follow up with you on that question. Yeah, we'll follow up on you -- with you.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And, Helane, just circling back on your -- your first question, I want to clarify one thing. The -- the Lufthansa Technik agreement is covering A321 and 330 component support; it's not 787. That's a -- that's a different contract for that one.

Helane Becker -- TD Cowen -- Analyst

OK. All right, that's really helpful. Thanks, team.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

OK. Thanks, Helane.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna International Group. Please go ahead.

Chris Stathoulopoulos -- Susquehanna International Group -- Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. So, Peter, there's -- as we think about 2024, I know you're still in your planning phase here, but there's a lot of moving pieces here with the 787, A330s where Japan will be, at that point, with its recovery. So, as we think about all that and stage gauge and departures, any color how we should think about capacity for next year as we put those pieces together? Thank you.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you know, let me -- let me start and then hand it over to Brent. I think we will -- we've got an opportunity for some growth next year. We've got -- we've got, you know, 787s coming throughout the year. I think we have at least three in service by the end of the year, and the fourth one coming late in the year.

So, there will be some contribution from that. It's -- you know, I would like to think that as we get fully into the year, we're going to have all the 321s flying again. That's obviously subject to discussions for the reasons we've talked about earlier. But we -- we do feel better, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, about the aircraft -- the engine availability as we start getting some of those -- those MRO returns.

So, we're not going to be providing guidance at this time, but we do see things growing as we have the annualization of bringing Japan back this year and then the incremental fleet availability coming into next year. So, it does position it as a year for capacity growth for us.

Chris Stathoulopoulos -- Susquehanna International Group -- Analyst

OK. And as a follow-up, Shannon, I think you said on the 50% impact for 4Q, you actually gave a percent per ASM number there. And is that just on a larger capacity base? Does that include any productivity within the network? Just want to understand how we're getting to that. I think it was 50% number by the end of 4Q of next year.

Thank you.

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that – that was when I was talking about the pilot productivity and the number of excess pilots we have on property due to all of the training to get ready for the 787 deliveries and A330 freighters. So, what it refers to is just that CASM impact from having that excess number of pilots versus 2019. And so, we decrease that CASM impact by 50% from the end of '23 to the end of '24. So, that's what that referred to.

Chris Stathoulopoulos -- Susquehanna International Group -- Analyst

OK, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global. Please go ahead.

Dan McKenzie -- Seaport Global Securities -- Analyst

Oh, hey. Thanks, guys. A couple of questions here. I guess my first question is really a schedule versus a revenue question with respect to California.

So, I guess, you know, just setting aside the Maui wildfires, you know, it looks like San Francisco and Los Angeles are cities where flying has not yet recovered to 2019 levels. And so, I guess, you know, my question is, it seems like an important part of the network, and I'm wondering what's holding the recovery back to these cities, you know, from a network perspective. Is it a delay or is it structural in nature? And you know, if these cities could get back to a normal schedule, you know, what would that possibly -- what could that mean for -- for revenue?

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Yeah, Dan, you know, frankly, the -- the schedule cuts that we've had to make in terms of putting capacity back in are things that we -- we've been really frustrated to do, frustrating for us financially, frustrating for our guests, and really almost exclusively related to -- to A321 availability. And so, where we've had to make some reductions, particularly in the Bay area, these haven't been things that we wanted to do. And we were going to have to temporarily suspend Long Beach-Maui for a period this -- this winter. Not something we want to do but really kind of given where we're at with -- with the Pratt situation are things that are really necessitated more than anything by that.

If we look kind of in terms of kind of industry recovery of -- of, you know, kind of California versus other metro, let's say the Bay area's maybe a little behind the Basin and Seattle and kind of other big metros but not -- not material as we look out at kind of industry volumes. And particularly, like looking at -- at second-quarter DOT data, you know, maybe it's a percentage point or two behind -- behind some of the other metros in the Bay. But -- but overall, you know, I would say just a little bit slower.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And just -- just to follow up on that, Dan, I mean, you know, California is a super important market for us. You know, Los Angeles is -- is the -- the biggest concentration of our flying outside of the Hawaiian Islands. If you look at what we've done since pre-pandemic, you know, some of the flying we added in 2020 coming out of the pandemic were things like Long Beach to Maui and adding our flight to Ontario, which -- which weren't there -- there before that time period. So, you know, we're really -- again, once we have full availability of our A321 fleet, I think if you looked at our flying 2019 versus -- versus what we'd like to be flying now, we'd be flying more, not less, to California.

Dan McKenzie -- Seaport Global Securities -- Analyst

Well, OK. And then, you know, I guess, Peter, can you remind us of what percent of the bookings were sold through blocks with the travel -- Japanese travel agencies, say, in 2019? And just, you know, what is the expectation, you know, going forward, and what could that possibly mean for revenue?

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, let me -- let me start and then hand it over to Brent. I know I don't have the specific percentage at my fingertips right now. Brent -- Brent may be a little more willing than me to go take a stab at a number. What I would say generally is that the travel distribution market -- I mean travel distribution market has been evolving globally.

I think it has evolved more gradually in Japan than a lot of places, and there's been a lot of, you know, third-party intermediaries that continued to be a big part of the distribution picture in Japan. That was starting to change. And one of the trends we have seen over the course of the last couple of years is, as travel resumed internationally from Japan, the -- the big travel retailers have not grown back their business as fast as they had. And we've made a lot of strides in advancing our own direct distribution, particularly over our websites and also -- but also working with some of the online travel agencies who -- who distribute things on more of a digital platform than a brick-and-mortar platform.

So, while we expect the brick-and-mortar agencies to still be -- play an important role and they're going to be important partners for us going forward, it is -- it is going to be less significant than it was. And we really think that the market was moving away from blocks and probably won't go back -- back to blocks going forward. And net net, I think that's probably a good thing for us.

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Yeah, Dan, I think, back to 2019, we were probably in the mid to high 20s in terms of blocks, and you know, those were at -- you know, they were at a -- at a discount to our average Japan revenue or Japan average fare as well. In terms of that commitment for giving -- for folks selling spaces, they were getting a little bit of a discount. But as Peter mentioned, you know, the market's evolved. We've seen a lot of changes in distribution there.

It was an evolution that was happening, and the pandemic has clearly accelerated that. And so, you know, I don't know that that's an endeavor we'll get back into. But it is -- you know, we were really focused on how we sell and how we distribute our products in Japan to make sure -- to ensure we're successful going forward.

Dan McKenzie -- Seaport Global Securities -- Analyst

Yeah, and you know, if I could just tack on one fast third question, going back to Peter's comment that the -- you know, the direct distribution is a good thing, can you elaborate just a little bit on what that means from a -- you know, the -- your ability to commercialize fares differently than what you were able to do before?

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Yeah, I think probably the biggest benefit -- two -- two benefits: one, we have a direct relationship with the customer and be able to sell them -- ancillary sign them up for Hawaiian miles and get even more kind of future loyalty there. In terms of ancillaries themselves, the biggest benefit for us is -- is selling extra comfort seats, and that was a product that we could sell through -- through third-party and brick-and-mortar agencies, but it was -- it was not very efficient or effective for us, the agency, or the customer. And so, being able to handle that directly with us when the time of booking or follow-up post-booking is a much easier process. So, the biggest benefit, I think, we'll see is greater extra comfort sales in Japan as we continue to grow there.

Dan McKenzie -- Seaport Global Securities -- Analyst

Perfect. Thanks for the time, you guys.

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions. I will now hand the conference over to Peter Ingram, president and CEO, for closing comments.

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Aloha again to everyone for joining us today. I obviously wish that the third quarter's financial outcomes more appropriately reflected the outstanding work of our team. While we are financially secure to continue investing for the long term, we know that we need to deliver better near-term performance in spite of the external challenges we face. The initiatives that are coming on now and early next year will help us achieve this.

We appreciate your interest and look forward to updating you on our progress in the months ahead. Aloha.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Marcy Morita -- Managing Director, Investor Relations

Peter Ingram -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Brent Overbeek -- Senior Vice President, Revenue Management and Network Planning

Shannon Okinaka -- Chief Financial Officer

Conor Cunningham -- Melius Research -- Analyst

Hillary Cacanando -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Catie O'Brien -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Andrew Didora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Helane Becker -- TD Cowen -- Analyst

Chris Stathoulopoulos -- Susquehanna International Group -- Analyst

Dan McKenzie -- Seaport Global Securities -- Analyst

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