Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?
One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, and then decide if E*TRADE Financial (ETFC) fits the bill.
The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:
- Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
- Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
- Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
- Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
- Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
- Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at E*TRADE Financial.
Factor |
What We Want to See |
Actual |
Pass or Fail? |
---|---|---|---|
Growth |
Five-year annual revenue growth > 15% |
(9.8%) |
Fail |
One-year revenue growth > 12% |
4.5% |
Fail |
|
Margins |
Gross margin > 35% |
90.2% |
Pass |
Net margin > 15% |
12% |
Fail |
|
Balance Sheet |
Debt to equity < 50% |
184% |
Fail |
Current ratio > 1.3 |
1.6 |
Pass |
|
Opportunities |
Return on equity > 15% |
3.4% |
Fail |
Valuation |
Normalized P/E < 20 |
26.53 |
Fail |
Dividends |
Current yield > 2% |
0% |
Fail |
One-year dividend growth > 10% |
0% |
Fail |
|
Total Score |
|
2 out of 10 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. NM = not meaningful due to negative earnings. Total score = number of passes.
Since we looked at E*TRADE Financial last year, the company has dropped another point, bringing its two-year total loss to two points. The stock has also languished, falling almost 10% in the past year.
E*TRADE has had a tough time in recent years, with a number of factors conspiring to hurt its results. On one hand, the market meltdown in 2008 shattered investor confidence, and despite a big rebound, many discount brokers haven't yet seen retail investors come back in full force. In its most recent quarter, E*TRADE reported lackluster commission and service-charge revenue.
But arguably the bigger hit facing E*TRADE and competitors Schwab (SCHW -0.05%) and TD Ameritrade (AMTD) is the low-interest rate environment. Low rates hurt brokers by reducing the margins they earn on customers' brokerage account balances. With interest margin falling from 2.89% last year to 2.44% in the most recent quarter, E*TRADE has definitely felt the hurt, especially considering that Schwab somehow managed to increase its margin, even with near-zero short-term rates.
One big concern remains the impact that the election could have on E*TRADE and the industry. While many policymakers focus on full-service brokers Morgan Stanley (MS 0.10%) and the Merrill Lynch division of Bank of America (BAC -0.13%), discount brokers will also inevitably be affected by regulatory changes. The real key, though, is stoking investor confidence in the financial markets to the point at which E*TRADE starts seeing customers come back.
For E*TRADE to improve, it needs to start building revenue back up and look for higher-margin lines of business. Without success on those fronts, E*TRADE will have a tough time becoming a perfect stock anytime soon.
Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfection than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate the best investments from the rest.
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