What Makes United Parcel Service's Stock Worth Owning?

The same things that made it worth buying in the first place: a reasonable valuation, an acceptable balance sheet, and a covered and growing dividend.

Mar 2, 2014 at 9:00AM

The real-money Inflation-Protected Income Growth portfolio owns shares of United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS). UPS, like every company in that portfolio, earned its place because at the time it was purchased:

  • Its shares appeared to be reasonably priced.
  • Its balance sheet looked solid.
  • It had a covered dividend with a history of increases.
  • That dividend looked capable of continuing to rise.
  • The company fit reasonably well within the portfolio from a diversification perspective.

Still, just because a company fit a portfolio at one time doesn't mean it will fit forever. This article reviews the current state of several of the key factors that made UPS worth owning to determine whether it still has what it takes to retain its spot in the IPIG portfolio.

Based on a discounted cash flow analysis, UPS's business looks to be worth around $88.8 billion, which, conveniently, is really close to its recent market capitalization of $88.9 billion. While the company's market capitalization is a tad bit higher than where the IPIG portfolio would consider buying shares if it didn't already own some, there doesn't appear to be a compelling need to sell based on valuation.

After all, any fair value estimate is based on projections of an unknown future, and nobody has the ability to predict it exactly correctly. Still, it's an estimate based on publicly known data and expectations, and since the company's market price is right around that fair value estimate, there doesn't appear to be a compelling case to sell based on valuation.

Result: Hold, based on valuation.

Balance sheet
UPS has done an admirable job recovering its balance sheet strength. Its debt-to-equity ratio now sits around a more comfortable 1.7. That reasonable debt-to-equity ratio gives the company the flexibility to manage through hiccups like the one it had delivering last-minute Christmas gifts this past December. In addition, the company has more than $4.6 billion in cash on its balance sheet, which positions it well for servicing its existing debt while continuing to reward shareholders.

Result: Hold, based on balance sheet.

UPS currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.67 per share, which it just increased in February from $0.62. In addition, UPS has a fairly decent track record of increasing its dividend annually, throughout most of its time as a publicly traded company. Dividend growth is an important characteristic that the IPIG portfolio actively seeks, and with a payout ratio of 58%, UPS has room to continue increasing its dividend as is business grows. 

Result: Hold, based on dividends.

All told: a company still worth owning
Looking at its valuation, its balance sheet, and its dividend, UPS still maintains the essential qualities needed to retain its place in the Inflation-Protected Income Growth portfolio. That may change over time, though, depending on the company, its competition, regulatory shifts, the whims of the market, and changes in its operating environment that affect its ability to thrive. As a result, the company will again be reviewed in the future to make sure it still deserves a spot in the portfolio.

On the hunt for great dividend stocks?
A key reason UPS is worth owning is one of the dirty secrets that few finance professionals will openly admit: Dividend stocks as a group generally outperform their non-dividend-paying brethren. However, knowing this is only half the battle. The other half is identifying which dividend stocks in particular are the best. With this in mind, our top analysts put together a free list of nine high-yielding stocks that should be in every income investor's portfolio. To learn the identity of these stocks instantly and for free, all you have to do is click here now.

To follow the IPIG portfolio as buy and sell decisions are made, watch Chuck's article feed by clicking here. To join The Motley Fool's free discussion board dedicated to the IPIG portfolio, simply click here.

Chuck Saletta owns shares of UPS. The Motley Fool recommends UPS. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

4 in 5 Americans Are Ignoring Buffett's Warning

Don't be one of them.

Jun 12, 2015 at 5:01PM

Admitting fear is difficult.

So you can imagine how shocked I was to find out Warren Buffett recently told a select number of investors about the cutting-edge technology that's keeping him awake at night.

This past May, The Motley Fool sent 8 of its best stock analysts to Omaha, Nebraska to attend the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. CEO Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger fielded questions for nearly 6 hours.
The catch was: Attendees weren't allowed to record any of it. No audio. No video. 

Our team of analysts wrote down every single word Buffett and Munger uttered. Over 16,000 words. But only two words stood out to me as I read the detailed transcript of the event: "Real threat."

That's how Buffett responded when asked about this emerging market that is already expected to be worth more than $2 trillion in the U.S. alone. Google has already put some of its best engineers behind the technology powering this trend. 

The amazing thing is, while Buffett may be nervous, the rest of us can invest in this new industry BEFORE the old money realizes what hit them.

KPMG advises we're "on the cusp of revolutionary change" coming much "sooner than you think."

Even one legendary MIT professor had to recant his position that the technology was "beyond the capability of computer science." (He recently confessed to The Wall Street Journal that he's now a believer and amazed "how quickly this technology caught on.")

Yet according to one J.D. Power and Associates survey, only 1 in 5 Americans are even interested in this technology, much less ready to invest in it. Needless to say, you haven't missed your window of opportunity. 

Think about how many amazing technologies you've watched soar to new heights while you kick yourself thinking, "I knew about that technology before everyone was talking about it, but I just sat on my hands." 

Don't let that happen again. This time, it should be your family telling you, "I can't believe you knew about and invested in that technology so early on."

That's why I hope you take just a few minutes to access the exclusive research our team of analysts has put together on this industry and the one stock positioned to capitalize on this major shift.

Click here to learn about this incredible technology before Buffett stops being scared and starts buying!

David Hanson owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and American Express. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, Google, and Coca-Cola.We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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