Get Ready for the Fall

"The bigger they are, the harder they fall." It's the worst nightmare of every investor in today's market -- buying a hot stock just before it takes a nosedive.

Every day, Nasdaq.com publishes a list of stocks whose shares have just hit new 52-week highs. And every day, investors read the list and tremble -- some with greed, others with terror. On our Motley Fool CAPS investing community, these top stocks usually enjoy favorable ratings, since everyone loves a winner. But what should you do when some of CAPS' smartest investors pan one of these hot stocks?

For starters, consider using the "52-week high" list as a starting point for further research. Stocks can rise for many reasons, but a little help from Motley Fool CAPS can make it easier to figure out how worthy those reasons are. Let's see what the more than 80,000 stock gurus (and counting) in CAPS have to say about the list's latest contenders:

A bear-y bad day
On Friday, no fewer than 406 listings on the NYSE hit their 52-week lows. That's more than one out of every nine securities trading on the Big Board, against just a handful of stocks hitting new highs. Now, it takes a lot of optimism for a stock to swim against an onrushing tide of red, so it should come as no surprise that the few winners we found all sport above-average ratings on CAPS. Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) scion Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling is as loved as its more famous relative. And Russian television operator CTC Media gets the same four-star ratings accorded to NBC parent GE (NYSE: GE) and ABC owner Disney (NYSE: DIS).

Build-a-bear, anyone?
Reviewing the pitches that CAPS players have penned on the above companies, I'm a bit embarrassed to report that out of 80,000 investors typing away on CAPS, we haven't found a single Fool able to put together a coherent, substantive negative case against any of these four companies.

That's simply unacceptable, folks. I know you can do better. Surely there's someone out there who can think up a reason to avoid one of these stocks? Raise your hand if it's you. Here -- I'll even get you started, using CTC as an example:

Valued at 42 times trailing earnings, and predicted to grow its profits at an astounding 60%-per-year clip, television network CTC Media is the darling of Russia analysts. But in a state with confirmed monolithic tendencies, I don't see the authorities allowing anyone to grow that fast. 60% growth would almost certainly require allowing CTC to eat into the market shares of State-controlled ORT, RTR, and NTV. CTC Media may be a fine company, boasting rapid growth and strong free cash flow, but if investors are banking on 60% growth in this one, they're bound to be disappointed.

See how simple it is to write a CAPS pitch? Why, to paraphrase the GEICO commercials, "It's so easy, a bear could do it." Now it's your turn. Head over to Motley Fool CAPS to give us your best bear pitch on:

• Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling
• CTC Media
• UAP Holding 
• Sierra Health 

Motley Fool CAPS: It's fun, it's free, and it just might make you famous.