The Best Stock Idea I've Ever Seen

Great stocks share three winning traits:

  1. They're self-funded. Top stocks produce bushels of free cash flow. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) and Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT  ) are perfect examples of this. Combined, they've produced more than $20 billion in FCF over the past 12 months alone.
  2. They're growing fast. Big winners tend to attract customers and produce massive revenue growth, as Akamai (Nasdaq: AKAM  ) has over the past five years.
  3. They possess sustainable advantages. Great stocks have the chops to fund growth and expand margins. Think of Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) and its near-monopoly in PC chips. Or Moody's (NYSE: MCO  ) and its dominant financial ratings business.

Every one of these companies is a great business. I highlight them here because history proves that, while low-priced businesses can make for good returns, reasonably priced great businesses can make you rich.

Cheap stocks, cheap returns
Consider Google. When the search king was preparing for its August 2004 IPO, hundreds of stocks sold for less than 15 times earnings. Why pick 15? Jeremy Siegel pegs the 130-year average P/E of the market at 14.45.

Google, selling for around 100 times earnings, wasn't anywhere near that. Investors adhering to the investapo's party line -- that pricey multiples are rarely rewarded -- opted out of Google and into "cheap" stocks. Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR  ) and SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU  ) , for example, were trading for 9.5 and 12.2 times earnings, respectively, on the day of DoubleGoo's public debut.

But it was the cheapskates that went unrewarded. Whirlpool and SUPERVALU have lagged Google and the market since the summer of 2004.

Great businesses, great returns
Were you to check my portfolio today you'd see that I've finally wised up; Google is too great a business to ignore. But it isn't the best stock idea I've ever seen.

That one is self-funded, growing fast, features sustainable advantages, and accounts for more than 20% of my portfolio. Here's why:

  • Adjusted free cash flow exceeded $100 million over the trailing 12 months.
  • Return on invested capital is nearing 40%.
  • Operating margins are expanding dramatically and net margin is up over 30%.

What really excites me, though, is that this stock, which commands less than $3 billion in market value, is about to enter a hypergrowth phase that could unleash tens of billions in additional value.

David Gardner agrees. He names this stock, which was first recommended in the July 2002 issue, as one of his five best buys right now in Motley Fool Stock Advisor. Find out why with a 30-day free trial to the service. You'll get unfettered access to all of David's picks and there's no obligation to subscribe.

This article was first published Feb. 27, 2008. It has been updated.

Fool contributor Tim Beyers owned shares of Akamai and Google at the time of publication. Google and Akamai are Rule Breakers recommendations. Moody's is a Stock Advisor selection. Moody's and Intel are Inside Value picks. The Motley Fool's disclosure policy would be the best-dressed disclosure policy if words didn't already prefer to be naked.


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  • Report this Comment On July 29, 2008, at 9:35 PM, eliasdib wrote:

    Im sure your enthusiasm and wisdom are equal in your article above.

    The wisdom you share about finding good companies and investing for the long term is simple and I expect true.

    I have been a "sideline" investor for several years, using my 401k accounts for investing and doing allright.

    I have read your reviews about some companies that I have been interested in investing with and have gathered enough positivie feedback and garnered up enough courage to set myself up for some long-term investing of my own.

    I recently converted a 401k into an IRA and am poised to implement some of the research and advice I have heard.

    I would like your advice on two specific companies; symbols: RTP and MT.

    They seem like solid/sound investments and I presently work for one of the two aforemenetioned. The latter is indirectly related to the first. RTP is an integrated mining company that furnishes the raw material for the latter MT which is a steel maker. Although they do not deal directly with one another, they are both poised for growth.

    Any final words of encouragement or dissuation would be appreciated,

    RTP - technical employee

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