The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye as well on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since data shows that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation?
One of our highest-rated CAPS members is TheSkyIsFalling, who sports a near-perfect 99.94 member rating. A member since February 2007, TheSkyIsFalling currently has 168 active picks on CAPS out of more than 270 stock picks made. Achieving 78% accuracy, TheSkyIsFalling has also attracted 32 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.
Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.
|
Stock
|
CAPS Rating (5 max)
|
Call
|
Price^
|
Current Score
|
|
Centerstate Banks of Florida
|
*
|
Underperform
|
$14.30
|
(7.45)
|
|
Central Fund of Canada (AMEX: CEF )
|
*****
|
Outperform
|
$7.75
|
6.39
|
|
CF Industries
|
****
|
Outperform
|
$38.00
|
39.74
|
|
Force Protection (Nasdaq: FRPT )
|
***
|
Outperform
|
$1.91
|
38.88
|
|
Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL )
|
****
|
Outperform
|
$2.19
|
(46.08)
|
|
iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV )
|
*****
|
Outperform
|
$8.66
|
3.39
|
|
Mosaic (NYSE: MOS )
|
****
|
Outperform
|
$24.43
|
26.40
|
|
PotashCorp (NYSE: POT )
|
****
|
Outperform
|
$61.84
|
17.09
|
|
Talbots
|
*
|
Underperform
|
$8.29
|
49.12
|
|
United States Natural Gas (AMEX: UNG )
|
****
|
Outperform
|
$27.43
|
(2.32)
|
Source: Motley Fool CAPS; ^Price when call was made. Current score is how many percentage points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.
Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.
United States Natural Gas
The collapse in oil and natural gas prices is taking the wind out of at least part of T. Boone Pickens' plan to substitute alternative fuels for oil. The billionaire has said he will delay his wind farm because it is not currently economically feasible. Yet the low cost of natural gas might still help spur further development of natural gas-powered cars. CAPS member johnw106 thinks exchange-traded fund U.S. Natural Gas will win out as natural gas becomes the go-to form of fuel:
Natural gas [(NG)] is the go to fuel for electric generating companys. ... Coal will be punished on the polution front until newer cleaner plants are built, and that is many years away. The idle NG plants will be fired up as the older coal plants are shut down. And any new plants being built in the next ten years will be NG or nuclear. ... Fleets across the USA already use NG engines and there is no reason for them to switch.
iShares Silver Trust
Another ETF enjoying investor support is iShares Silver Trust, which CAPS member mbkelly55 appreciates for giving him an easy way to keep this important metal as part of his portfolio.
Every portfolio should have some hard assets and, short of buying and holding the metals yourself, this ETF is as good a way as any to have them in your portfolio. I like 10% of my portfolio to be Silver or Gold and this ETF as well as [SPDR Gold Shares] have made trading the metals MUCH easier for me.
Central Fund of Canada
Like Silver Trust, the Central Fund of Canada provides investors with hedge protection, but by buying gold and silver bullion. CAPS All-Star TheGarcipian believes that the possibility of things getting ugly in the U.S. makes the fund's location north of the border a bit safer.
This is a defensive play, a hedge against the tumultuous fall many stocks will experience over the next 9-15 months as we enter the den of this bear's market. It'll be good to own gold and silver bullion in a holding company that's located outside the USA, just in case things get really nasty over the next year. In looking at the Slow Stochastics for this fund, it appears to me that [Central Fund of Canada] is bottoming out now or in the next 2 weeks.
A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?
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