Stock Smackdown: Cramer vs. CAPS

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There's no denying that Mad Money host Jim Cramer is entertaining, popular, and passionate. On many occasions, he's even right. So he's smart, funny, and the closest thing to a stock market rock star -- but is he smarter than you?

The Fool's free investing community, Motley Fool CAPS, aggregates the opinion of more than 120,000 members to assign ratings for each stock's likelihood of outperforming or underperforming the market. For the first 20 months since we began tracking the CAPS community's collective intelligence in late 2006, the data shows that newly minted five-star stocks offer the best opportunities for investors, while lowest-rated companies fared the worst.

Cramming for Cramer
Below, we look at some top stocks that Cramer picked and panned during last week's "lightning rounds," and compare them to how the CAPS community sees their future:

Stock

Lightning Round Show Date

Cramer's Rating 

CAPS Rating

First Solar

Monday

Bearish

**

US Airways (NYSE: LCC)

Monday

Bearish

*

Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)

Tuesday

Bullish

****

Microsoft

Tuesday

Bearish

***

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS)

Tuesday

Bearish

***

CME Group (NYSE: CME)

Wednesday

Bearish

****

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY)

Wednesday

Bearish

*****

Verizon (NYSE: VZ)

Thursday

Bullish

****

MGM Mirage

Friday

Bearish

**

SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI)

Friday

Bearish

*

Source: CAPS and Mad Money Recap.

Cramer says...
Inflation is one reason to consider making gold an integral part of your portfolio. When it comes to folks who mine the stuff, there's probably none better than Yamana Gold. Yet a poor quarter with a bad earnings miss probably suggests you should wait to add the gold producer to your portfolio, even if its price has fallen dramatically. Here's what Cramer had to say:

First of all, I think there's a place for gold in absolutely every portfolio, because, if you have 10 stocks, I think you want to own one as gold, because I do believe inflation will be a problem. Near-term inflation is so not a problem... We're in a deflationary environment, which is one of the reasons why that stock fell from $16 to $4. (Yamana CEO) Peter Marrone missed the quarter badly. I want to see the end of tax-loss selling, before I'll even think of buying AUY.

CAPS says...
It seems like Jim Cramer and the CAPS community disagree on Yamana Gold. More than 95% of the All-Star members of the investor intelligence community think the gold producer will outperform the market. This stock has been highly rated since the CAPS service began, often trading at a top five-star rating.

Dig a little deeper, though, and CAPS' and Cramer's views don't seem so divergent. Top-rated CAPS All-Star member rebelseeker also thinks inflationary pressures will push Yamana higher, but like Cramer points out, the company may still face some short-term weakness:

Solid company low debt with good management. Current economic conditions may depress stock lower; but, rebound and coming inflation will double or triple stock in 2 or 3 years. Look at stock price history and recessions. This recession will be longer than several months. When FED can no longer lower intrest rate inflation will rise and so will gold prices.

While CAPS and Cramer may grudgingly agree on Yamana, the case of Intel points up one of the Mad Money host's main criticisms: He can change his opinion of a company on a dime. Last week, he thought Intel was going through a "problematic period;" this week, he feels it's a compelling buy because of its dividend:

If Microsoft does well, Intel does well. And Intel yields 4%. It just hit my 4% chart, which makes me feel like that's a compelling buy.

The whiplash you can get trading like that could put your neck in a brace.

Your say
While CAPS members may stand with Jim Cramer or on opposite sides of the field, our investor intelligence community includes more than the lofty opinions of a handful of All-Stars -- even if they are TV personalities. What do you think? Is Cramer right, or off his rocker? Head over to CAPS and sound off with your thoughts on Yamana.

Motley Fool CAPS is a great place to start your own research on these stocks. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page. Best of all, it's free!

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United Parcel Service is a Motley Fool Income Investor selection. Microsoft and Intel are Inside Value picks. The Fool owns shares of and covered calls on Intel. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey also owns shares of and covered calls on Intel, but he does not have a financial position in any of the other stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 17, 2008, at 11:15 PM, Shopessmart wrote:

    Duh!!!

    There is no doubt that Cramer has been more right than the CAPS members regarding AUY.

    While CAPS members and the author/fools at Motley have been backing AUY while it slid all the way down its slippery slope and continues to underperform when placed toe to toe with its peers.

    Jim Cramer has for months been stale on AUY. He either recomended other miners or flatly told viewers that AUY is not the one to go with.

    Over the same period of time (fools check your archives) the Motley bunch has been recklessly pumping the equity and citing how XXXX CAPS members say the stock should outperform.

    I never thought I would say this because I frankly think that Cramer shamelessly hurts retail American investors with cavalier guidance during which he tells you to buy or sell and then rarely ever offers follow through based off of changed dynamics but, Caps members are going to be bested by Jim Cramer. If, and I mean if, he in fact waits until tax selling ahead of the new year abates, will get the best price and blow the socks off of Motleys CAPS aka FOOLS.

    Ash

  • Report this Comment On November 18, 2008, at 3:22 AM, HackMage wrote:

    Why are you using his Lightning Round as a metric? Seriously? I expect better from a writer for the fool. Anyone who watches his show day in and day out knows that's his quick 'lil spot to prove he knows more about stocks than anyone out there. To that point, he moves in and out on a dime, because as a trader and hedge fund manager that's what he was trained to do.

    Why don't you use his other segments? Why is no one talking about his Sell Block segment pointing out the latest GS report on insurance companies? PRU, PFG, and HIG may not be able to pay out their policies. Wow that should be news here. Maybe you should go read that report and check out:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/27706066

    Matt

  • Report this Comment On November 18, 2008, at 8:08 AM, bizcardnut wrote:

    Overall, Cramer and CRAPS members both stink.

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Yamana Gold, Inc. (USA)

CAPS Rating 4/5 Stars

$9.02

+0.21 (+2.38%)

Outperform3456

Underperform107

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