I am always looking for a good deal, whether that means buying an extra box of Golden Grahams when they're on sale or pouncing on undervalued stocks. The idea that anybody would sell a stock for less than its worth may seem silly, but legendary value investor Ben Graham (no relation to the cereal) tells us, by way of allegory, how we can look out for these situations.
In The Intelligent Investor, Graham introduces readers to a wacky chap named Mr. Market. Mr. Market's game is to pay you house calls on a daily basis to offer to sell you interests in businesses he owns or to buy from you interests in businesses you own. Sometimes Mr. Market will show up at your door very excited and offer you premium prices for your holdings, while at other times he'll be inconsolably depressed about the future and will offer to sell you what he has for as low as pennies on the dollar.
So to find some of the stocks that Mr. Market is depressed about, I've turned once again to The Motley Fool's CAPS investor community. Each of the companies below had been given a five-star rating (the highest) by the community just 30 days ago:
|
Stock
|
30-day return
|
One-year return
|
Current CAPS rating
|
|
Atwood Oceanics (NYSE: ATW )
|
(40%)
|
(66.2%)
|
*****
|
|
Penn West Energy (NYSE: PWE )
|
(35.9%)
|
(53.5%)
|
*****
|
|
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX )
|
(27.1%)
|
(81.3%)
|
*****
|
|
Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE )
|
(25.3%)
|
(42.3%)
|
*****
|
|
Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI )
|
(21.6%)
|
(33.2%)
|
*****
|
|
Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW )
|
(21%)
|
(53.2%)
|
*****
|
|
Satyam Computer Services (NYSE: SAY )
|
(20.5%)
|
(56.8%)
|
*****
|
Data from Motley Fool CAPS as of Dec. 9.
As the table shows, these stocks are all still very well-regarded by the CAPS community despite their underperformance over the past month. While these are not formal recommendations, they could be a great place to kick off some further research. I'll even get you started with some thoughts on Freeport-McMoRan.
Why so blue?
Picture the classic lemonade stand on the sidewalk. Got it? Now imagine what happens to that budding little business if somebody comes by and dumps some salt into the pitcher of lemonade. Yuck, right? Well, diving metals prices have recently been that nasty dose of salt for Freeport-McMoRan's business.
Following the acquisition of Phelps Dodge last year, Freeport became one of the world's largest producers of copper, gold, and molybdenum. Prices for these metals, though -- copper and molybdenum in particular -- have fallen through the floor as economic malaise sweeps the globe. As Freeport shared in a press release earlier this month, copper prices have fallen by more than 50% since the quarter ended in September, and molybdenum prices have slumped by more than 70%. As a result, the company announced that it's cutting back production and capital spending over the next couple years and it suspended its dividend.
Let's just say investors weren't thrilled with that announcement.
What the bulls say
More recently, the bulls have been back in vogue with Freeport. The economic stimulus package that President-elect Barack Obama is talking about has sparked some serious rallies in construction and materials companies as investors anticipate renewed construction spending. Though Freeport is still down from a month ago, Tuesday's closing price was nearly 18% above where it closed last Friday.
Meanwhile, CAPS members continue to be very positive on Freeport. Of 5,027 members who have weighed in on the stock, 4,909 think it will outperform the market. CAPS All-Star BSHumphreyII is one of those bulls, recently saying:
[Freeport] might retest the 15, but copper will be back, and so will Freeport. Yeah, you got killed if you held on to them this year, but at $20, it's a steal. Last I checked, copper prices were down 50%, not 80%, and Freeport is still the lowest-cost producer.
So do you think the recent drop has created a good buying opportunity? Or will Freeport-McMoRan continue to be dragged down by the global slowdown? Let the community know what you think -- head over to CAPS and share your thoughts with the other 120,000-plus members. Even if you'd prefer to pass on Freeport, you can check out a couple of the other stocks listed above or any of the nearly 5,400 stocks that are rated on CAPS.
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