UGG boots were hot during what was overall a pretty lackluster holiday shopping season, but that wasn't enough to keep investors from booting Deckers (Nasdaq: DECK) out of their portfolios last week after its fourth-quarter earnings results.
Fourth-quarter net income increased 14% to $40.5 million, or $3.07 per share. Deckers' earnings included a non-cash writedown of $20.9 million due to goodwill impairment related to its Teva and TSUBO brands. (Writedowns related to the Teva brand are nothing new, though; this was going on last quarter, too.)
Revenue increased 56.3% to $303.5 million, with UGG sales being the bright spot, up 62% in the quarter. Teva's brand continues to struggle, however.
It seems what really spooked investors was Deckers' forecast for the future. Deckers said first-quarter earnings per share are expected to drop approximately 28%. For all of 2009, revenue growth is only expected to grow 6% to 9%, and earnings will be flat to slightly down.
The UGG brand has shown admirable resilience; so far, it’s proven not to be a fleeting fad like Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX) or Heely's (Nasdaq: HLYS). But then again, it's always a possibility that consumers will turn away from those premium-priced boots after all. Meanwhile, the poor economy certainly inserts a lot of uncertainty into many consumer-facing stocks that provide things that people want, but don't necessarily need.
One thing Deckers has going for it is its balance sheet; it has $194.8 million in cash and equivalents and no debt. High levels of debt in a deteriorating economic climate are a big reason to steer clear of many stocks these days, and Deckers fortunately doesn't have that additional risk.
Deckers is a compelling stock idea, trading at just 7 times trailing earnings -- cheaper than the multiples for footwear rivals like Timberland (NYSE: TBL), Nike (NYSE: NKE), and Steve Madden (Nasdaq: SHOO). However, the staying power of the UGG brand and the tough economic environment do insert some risk into the equation. Still, Deckers seems like a good stock to put on the watch list.
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