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3 Reasons to Be Bearish on IBM

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A shellshocked economy, spiraling debt at financial institutions, or just plain bad management -- on any given day, investors can name a number of reasons to sell a stock. Yet while panic never helps investors, it's still a good idea to play devil's advocate with investments from time to time.

Consider global technology services giant IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) . The company has held up well in the recent downturn, but in Motley Fool CAPS, a significant number of the 3,436 members weighing in on Big Blue offer reasons to be bearish. I've already plucked out some of the common bullish rationale backing IBM, so here are three counterpoints, courtesy of CAPS.

1. Flat sales
While zero growth may be a relief to many these days, some investors still expect more from market leaders. IBM joined Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO  ) and Dell (Nasdaq: DELL  ) in reporting a weak top line last quarter, as overall demand sagged. And a recent UBS survey showed a weak outlook for IT spending in the U.S. and Europe this coming year, painting a gloomy macro picture.

2. More job cuts
IBM recently announced plans to cut more jobs. Like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) , it's already laid off or otherwise reduced staff. But while trimming headcount to "rightsize" a company for its potential markets is a good move in theory, some investors wonder whether the employee reduction may be going too far in some areas, leaving the company at risk of the lasting damage caused by brain drain.

3. Share price
With the economic outlook still uncertain, some CAPS members aren't too keen on IBM's current price -- if not from a pure valuation standpoint, then from a belief that it may likely go lower before it goes higher. Although Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL  ) and Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) are showing some signs that may point toward a recovery, many investors don't feel confident that the economy is out of the woods quite yet.

Of course, IBM has survived and thrived despite dozens of obstacles in the past. Will it continue to outperform in the future? CAPS can be a great way to help you draw your own conclusion.

To see what the very best CAPS members are saying now about IBM, just click on over to Motley Fool CAPS and have a look.

Further Foolishness:

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Fool contributor Dave Mock is at his weakest point when faced with ice cream or shaved ice. He owns shares of Intel. Google is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick. Dell, Intel, and Microsoft are Inside Value picks. The Fool owns shares of and options on Intel. The Fool's disclosure policy is built to last longer than a Twinkie.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On April 17, 2009, at 7:41 PM, Dannyo01 wrote:

    Another reason to be bearish on IBM... 1/4 of their revenues and half of their profits come from the mainframe... where they have a monopoly. Mainframes (+ their services, software, etc.) cost 10x over that of regular servers... which can effectively do the job of the mainframe. However, IBM's anticompetitive (and possibly illegal... according to antitrust law) actions have prevented commodity hardware from stealing significant market share from the mainframe. Possible European Commission action looms... the lock will eventually be broken. IBM has enough cash on hand to possibly reinvent itself in a competitive marketplace... but margins will be way down.

    Good article in NYT a few weeks back:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/23/technology/companies/23mai...

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