2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Realty Income?

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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 140,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, commercial retail REIT Realty Income (NYSE: O) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Realty Income's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Realty Income facts

Headquarters (Founded)

Escondido, Calif. (1969)

Market Cap

$2.45 billion

Industry

Real estate investment trust (REIT)

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$329 million

Management

CEO Thomas Lewis Jr. (since 1997)

CFO Paul Meurer (since 2001)

Cash / Debt

$36 million / $1.35 billion

Dividend Yield

7.3%

Competitors

Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG)

Weingarten Realty Investors (NYSE: WRI)

CAPS Members Bearish on O Also Bearish on

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)

Citigroup (NYSE: C)

CAPS Members Bullish on O Also Bullish on

General Electric (NYSE: GE)

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's), Yahoo! Finance, and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 24.4% of the 131 All-Star members who have rated Realty Income believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Stars TMFBuck and Entrepreneur58, both of whom are ranked in the top 20% of our community.

Late last week, TMFBuck followed the lead of high-profile hedge fund manager Bill Ackman and slapped an underperform call on the stock: "Poor player in commercial real estate that pays out 100% of cash to dividend. When commercial real estate market falls, I wouldn't want to be owning this."

In a pitch from two days earlier, Entrepreneur58 expands on the stock as a scary way to earn income:

Retail REIT that attracts small investors with dividends during a low rate environment. Its properties are rented to what management calls "less than investment grade" tenants. They call that JUNK in the bond market. When they eventually cut the dividend, the punters who bought it for the dividend will be in a panic to see who can get out the fastest.

What do you think about Realty Income, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. The CAPS community is waiting to hear your opinions. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Procter & Gamble is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick, and the Fool owns shares of it. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 26, 2009, at 11:15 AM, weiwentg wrote:

    Realty Income's triple-net lease structure makes the tenants responsible for all property operating expenses and taxes, leaving the company itself with a very predictable steam of income. The leases are also typically very long-term and inflation-indexed. Leases are typically fairly well protected even in bankruptcy, so the credit quality of the firm's tenants does not matter all that much. It would take bankruptcies en masse to disrupt Realty Income's operations. I think Ackman fails to truly understand the company.

  • Report this Comment On October 26, 2009, at 12:43 PM, Fool wrote:

    THIS HAS BEEN AN OUTSTANDING STOCK FOR ME.

    I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A LONG TERM DEFLATION IN THIS STOCK.

    EVEN WITH THE RECESSION I HAVE GAINED OVER 60% OF MY ORIGINAL INVESTM,ENT PLUS

    MY DIVEDENDS

  • Report this Comment On October 26, 2009, at 1:04 PM, captricky wrote:

    I love it when they downgrade O! Hopefully there are enough RESPECTED bears to drive the price down and follow Ackman (didn't he have a FAILED strategy on TARGET?) to the short side, which will present those of us who understand the O business model with a great opportunity add to our long position at a discount. The 15th is bonus day - EVERY month.

    When you OWN (as in no debt whatsoever) your property and there is a real estate market decline it presents an opportunity to buy those stressed out, leveraged properties at a discount - kind of like when guys like Ackman create a worry about O, drive the price down, and help O bulls buy it up cheap.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2009, at 1:55 PM, grinvw wrote:

    I find it hard to understand that Ackman would reverse his positions on a company with the stable track record such as Realty Income (what is the real motive behind his new position??). If there were major problems internally to Realty Income I find it hard to beleive they would increase their monthly dividend (which recently occured). If Realty Income's reports are near analysts predictions, I would expect there will be a good deal of angry investors as the stock price has fallen on a daily basis since Ackman's comments.

  • Report this Comment On October 29, 2009, at 9:53 AM, grinvw wrote:

    Now that Realty Income has posted its results and completely overturned Ackman's "theorys", its to bad he (Ackman) is not responsible for a drop in share price of roughly $3.00 a share times 104 million outstanding shares since his recommondation to short the stock.

  • Report this Comment On October 30, 2009, at 12:42 AM, skbbm wrote:

    This has been an outstanding and very reliable sompany for me personally. I absolutley love this stock. The monthly dividends are the icing on the cake. Looks like everyone who has posted so far is long on this stock, as am I. The shorts are just making our buying opportunities sweeter! Only time will tell, but I think "O" is without a doubt a real winner!

  • Report this Comment On October 30, 2009, at 2:27 PM, grinvw wrote:

    This stock is also a rec buy though Edward Jones Investment Company and its research department. Im not promoting EJ but "experts" do recommend the stock and see the company as stable.

  • Report this Comment On November 02, 2009, at 2:33 PM, nharty wrote:

    I have owned O consistently for 20 years and am always happy to see the dividend-can't see any fundamental reason why business plan is all of a sudden - suspect. I look forward to adding to my position.

  • Report this Comment On November 20, 2009, at 2:13 AM, lamamike wrote:

    Realty Income is a great company with a consistent dividend policy (473 uninterrupted monthly dividends -- or 49.4 years of regular dividends!) that speaks much louder than a few squeals of fear by some fools.

    But if you still fear a dividend cut, you might go with their preferred D and E class shares, which offer a higher yield than the regular shares.

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