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Who's to Blame for the Mortgage Mess?

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Banks and mortgage servicers have been scolded and screamed at -- to the point of being threatened with fines -- for not making enough mortgage modifications permanent. This makes for great stress relief, but few have answered why the government's $75 billion mortgage modification plan has started off with a slow, sad, whimper.

Just how bad is it? Through November, an embarrassing 4% of trial modifications -- a multimonth let's-see-if-you're-really-worthy test -- were made permanent. That's pitiful.

More frustrating, the biggest banks are moving at a pace that's comically close to zero:

Bank

Percentage of Trial Modifications
Made Permanent

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  )

0.06%

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  )

3.01%

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  )

3.37%

Citigroup (NYSE: C  )

0.26%

USBancorp (NYSE: USB  )

0.58%

PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC  )

0.17%

Sources: financialstability.gov, author's calculations.

Now, trial modifications have a three- to five-month audition period before they become permanent. So to get a better measure of the true success rate, we have to compare current permanent modifications to trial modifications issued in previous months. Current permanent modifications as a percentage of July's trial modifications shows a 12% success rate. That's better than the 4% headline number, but should still make you sick.

Looking for heads to roll
Who's to blame here? When in doubt, it's routine to blame the banks. Just ask Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) . But instead of jumping to conclusions, we need to know what's happening behind the scenes, after trial modifications are granted.

Thankfully, JPMorgan Chase recently gave an investor presentation outlining just that. For every 100 trial modifications offered, here's what it found:

  • 29 customers do not make required payments
  • 71 customers make all three required payments
  • Of those 71 customers, 51 do not submit all documents required or submit documents that require refinement for underwriting

Ouch. Only about 20% of borrowers carry out their half of the deal. If JPMorgan is indicative of the industry, it's the borrowers, not the banks and servicers, who should be blamed for the low success rate. And because the problem lies with unqualified borrowers -- not inefficient servicers -- it's reasonable to assume the success rate won't go appreciably higher than it currently is.

What's that mean for the housing market? As of November, there were 728,408 active trial modifications. Because most of those borrowers won't be granted permanent modifications, many will end up defaulting. That means a slug of potential foreclosures are currently being held off the market thanks to trial modifications, but will likely face default sometime next year.

Knowing this might rain on recent news that foreclosures are beginning to wane. According to RealtyTrac, November foreclosures fell 8%. That's wonderful, but the gain is almost certain to reverse once failed trial modifications are purged. Indeed, RealtyTrac notes that the decrease in foreclosure filings was thanks to "loan modifications and other foreclosure prevention efforts." That's awesome for the time being, but useless if those prevention efforts aren't made permanent.

Where to now?
How big an impact have trial modifications had on foreclosures? One way to gauge is to compare the number of foreclosures with the number of newly issued trial modifications:

Month

Number of Foreclosures

Number of Newly Issued
Trial Modifications

November

306,627

77,414

October

332,292

163,913

September

343,638

100,216

August

358,471

133,192

July

360,149

110,397

June

336,173

93,146

May

321,480

50,130*

April

342,038

N/A

March

341,180

N/A

Sources: RealtyTrac, financialstability.gov, author's calculations.

*May and prior.

That's ugly: The monthly number of trial modifications issued far exceeds the month-to-month decrease in foreclosure activity. When you think about the success rate of trial modifications, this isn't an insignificant fact to ignore. And it all leads to three conclusions:

  • The recent decrease in foreclosures has largely been caused by trial modifications.
  • Most trial modifications won't be made permanent.
  • 2010 could be a year of uncomfortable surprises.

What do you think? Do you see signs of a sustainable real estate recovery in your neighborhood? Let me know in the comments section below.

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Fool contributor Morgan Housel doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 2:19 PM, mainelegal wrote:

    51 out of 71, having made the payments, don't meet the "required paperwork" requirements.

    Does this seem at all bureaucratic ?

    It seems certain that if one tenth of the energy devoted to rounding up or dispensing with paperwork that occurred when the loans were created was available to finalize these files now, this little fact would be far less than the reason why a majority of all loan restructures fail.

    Perhaps these lenders should have their access to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac restricted until they perform a little better. So far they have continued to be very poor stewards of the responsibilities they voluntarily undertook.

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 2:52 PM, Fool wrote:

    Unfortunately, 1/10 of the 240 homes in my neighborhood are under foreclosure action. Many of which have been empty for well over a year. I'm one of the lucky few who can still realize a nice profit if push comes to shove and I have to sell, but the majority of the neighbors I have spoken with are upside down. I see no light at the end of the cul-de-sac! Watch how the liberal media continue to hawk the improving market with no regard to the facts of this article.

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 3:39 PM, FundInsider wrote:

    I agree with mainlegal, this is the fault of the banks, not homeowners. Banks, and the gov, are just ridiculous when it comes to paper work that the average person can not understand. To me, if 71 % make the payments, that's a HUGE SUCCESS, and it's being spoiled by onerous paperwork that banks require.

    Maybe H&R Block should get into the business of filling out mortgage modification requests, not much different to the average person that doing tax returns :-)

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 3:50 PM, questioner5000 wrote:

    mainelegal;

    Note that the documentation required of the borrowers is documentation REQUIRED BY THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. These are not forms/requirements dreamed up by the banks, (though, had the banks required the same documentation when making the loans, much of the mortage activity wouldn't have occurred in the first place)!.

    Why have so few "trial modifications" been converted? Well, in part, many applied for trial modifications;

    - - - were to borrowers who can actually afford to pay their mortgages, but, because they qualified simply because they were "underwater" saw the modification process simply as a way to get lower rates and terms for a few months at least. (Once their TRUE financial situation is documented, they would no longer qualify for assistance.)

    - - - were to borrowers who were simply "investors", and so wouldn't ultimately qualify for permanent modification.

    - - - were to borrowers who never should have been granted a loan in the first place, and are in such bad shape that they know that the trial modification is little more than a way to stave off foreclosure for another 6 months

    - - - were to borrowers who falsified their original applications, (i.e., other assets, other debts, income levels, etc.), and so are simply glad to get more time in their homes, before getting removedbecause they were available.

    - - - were to borrowers who are simply too damn lazy to gather all of the Government-required documentation.

    I know that the current fad is to claim that the public was totally innocent/naive/stupid, and has no blame in the current mess, and that it is solely the fault of the banks for stealing our "good times" and birthright to "easy, no-sweat" credit, but it's self delusion.

    As Pogo said, "We have met the enemy, and it is US!

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 4:00 PM, TMFHousel wrote:

    "Banks, and the gov, are just ridiculous when it comes to paper work that the average person can not understand."

    I get your point, but if you don't understand how to document your income, you shouldn't be buying a house.

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 4:41 PM, Usurped wrote:

    Maybe it's just your typical TaxEaters who seem to need even a TaxPayer paid butt wiper to make it through the day.

    You TaxEaters are too much to stand. The data is all around showing that these TaxEaters shouldn't have been given a loan to start, but the Federal Gov't forced it upon the Lenders (Community Reinvestment Act) and continue to blame banks for what the Gov't has wrought on the not so free Free Enterprise. Gov't education makes for good voting TaxEaters.

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 6:24 PM, Fool wrote:

    It's idiotic that you cannot refinance your existing loan that is at a higher rate for a lower rate loan because you can't qualify. Don't you qualify more for the lower rate loan and aren't your chances of making your payments much greater with the lower rate loan??????

  • Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 10:28 PM, questioner5000 wrote:

    But Fool;

    In terms of simple "refinancing", there are reasons why a borrower may not be able to refinance;

    ----Their employment status of the owners may have changed since the original loan was made

    ----The appaised value of their home may have dropped substantially since the original loan was approved, thus making the collateral less valuable

    ----The owners credit score may have deteriorated due to a whole host of other factors.

    If you're talking about the Government's modification program, there are a host of reasons why the program might not be applicable;

    ---- The borrowers are able to afford their current mortgage and are not able to prove "hardship

    ---- The borrowers are so deeply in trouble that even modification isn't seen as a permanent solution

    ---- the borrowers original loan was based on fraudulent input, or the circumstances surrounding the loan make loan modification iumpossible - - i.e., investment properties rather than primary residences, etc.

    ---- the borrowers are unable/unwilling to complete the required paperwork

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