This morning's Wall Street Journal reports that Google
I'll spare you the suspense. This is exactly how it will go down.
Google: We have traced the hacker attempts to you. That's just wrong.
China: Maybe we did it. Maybe we didn't do it. It's our country. It's our rules.
Google: Umm, OK. Either way, we want to provide the Chinese with an unfiltered Internet. There is no reason we should have to censor the Tiananmen Square massacre queries.
China: Tiananmen Square what?
Google: See? You're doing it again.
China: You're still blocking Nazi symbols in France and Germany. Why is that?
Google: Well, those countries have certain laws about Nazi imagery.
China: Duh! If Baidu
(NASDAQ:BIDU) were to enter the United States, could they link to kiddie porn?Google: You can't compare pedophilia to blocking historical events that actually happened.
China: Did that argument work in France or Germany? And what's this I read in Gawker, that Google supposedly took down the blog of your CEO's alleged mistress?
Google: The key words there are supposedly and alleged. We don't have to answer to you.
China: Yet you expect us to answer to you?
Google: We will leave China.
China: Oh, no! So all of the paid-search revenue generated in China will stay in this country through Baidu and smaller hometown heroes? You're twisting my arm so hard.
Google: OK. We get it. But how do we save face if we want to stay here? The world was patting our back a month ago. We'll be branded two-faced cowards if we continue to play by your rules.
China: Well, just tell them something open-ended. Tell the public you'll remain in China as you explore long-term policy changes. We won't budge, but people will forget over time.
In a nutshell, China isn't going to change and Google isn't going to leave.
Part of being a global company is adhering to different rules in different countries. China's rules and oversight are fierce. It shouldn't have taken months for NetEase.com
Plenty of things will dictate a change in policy over time, but they will all have to work their way from the inside out.