Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of regional savings and loan operator Flagstar Bancorp (NYSE: FBC) have been rising gently all day, reaching gains of 11.4% as of this writing on about twice the stock's average trading volume.

So what: The company reported earnings on Tuesday night and promptly fell as much as 8.6% on Wednesday. This comeback was fueled by an analyst upgrade filed early this morning and setting a $2 price target.

Now what: FBR Capital thinks that Flagstar deserves credit for inching closer to bottom-line profitability, and the $2 target is based on the assumption that Flagstar will pay off its Troubled Asset Relief Program loans in cash at some point. Even so, FBR sees Flagstar as a risky investment and a buying opportunity only for "the appropriate investor." Fellow Fool Matt Koppenheffer landed on the "too risky" side of that argument a couple of months ago, and I tend to agree -- capital-poor banks are scary, and FBR has been very wrong on Flagstar before.

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