November 11, 2011
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of ATP Oil & Gas (Nasdaq: ATPG ) dropped 10% for the third straight session as management's attempts to ease the market's fears are failing.
So what: Yesterday I highlighted rising bond yields on $2 billion of debt as driving shares lower and yesterday Global Hunter Securities downgraded the bonds due to "bankruptcy concerns." The company's CFO said in an interview that the company has "complete control of our destiny and we have no plans to miss any interest payments."
Now what: Momentum is definitely against shares lately, and I wouldn't look at this as a buying opportunity. Playing a game betting against bankruptcy is dangerous in the case of ATP considering the company has sold preferred shares and renegotiated payments to suppliers to save cash. It's possible that cash flow will be strong enough from the company's wells that ATP can survive, but it isn't a bet this Fool is willing to make.
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