Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Redbox video rental parent Coinstar (Nasdaq: CSTR) climbed as high as 10% on Monday after JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster upgraded the stock from neutral to overweight.

So what: Along with the upgrade, Coster reiterated his price target of $50 per share, representing a nice 26% premium to Friday's close. However, he also made sure that investors view the call as a "6-month long trade," as opposed to a long-term, buy-and-hold recommendation. 

Now what: "We believe the DVD kiosk rental opportunity will be saturated by late 2012," Coster wrote in a note to clients. "Furthermore, we believe the DVD (and broader optical disk) category has already entered a long-term decline (analogous with peak-to-trough decline of VHS and CD categories). ..." So while pouncing on a November pullback might be tempting, increasing pressure from digital gorillas like Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) make it an easy pass for conservative investors. As Warren Buffett says, "If you don't feel comfortable owning something for 10 years, then don't own it for 10 minutes."

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