Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples.
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
- How much growth we can expect.
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Chico's
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
Chico's has a P/E ratio of 13.1 and an EV/FCF ratio of 11.8 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Chico's has a P/E ratio of 23.0 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 18.5.
A positive one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal (at least in my opinion). For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
Chico's has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.
Company |
1-Year P/E |
1-Year EV/FCF |
5-Year P/E |
5-Year EV/FCF |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chico's | 13.1 | 11.8 | 23.0 | 18.5 |
Ann Taylor | 13.0 | 12.7 | NM | 12.3 |
Urban Outfitters | 18.0 | 39.9 | 19.3 | 25.5 |
New York & Co. | NM | 57.6 | NM | 48.6 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ; NM = not meaningful because of losses.
Numerically, we've seen how Chico's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, Chico's net income margin has ranged from 0.1% to 7.3%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -2.1% to 9.8%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; margin ranges are combined.
Additionally, over the last five years, Chico's has tallied up five years of positive earnings and four years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Chico's has put up past EPS growth rates of -6.6%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 14.7%.
Here's how Chico's compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth (because of losses, New York & Co.'s trailing growth rate isn't meaningful):
Source: S&P Capital IQ; EPS growth shown.
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; estimates for EPS growth.
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of Chico's are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 13.1 P/E ratio, and we see that Chico's five-year multiples, while moderate, reflect the rough ride Chico's has had over the past five years. Although it has generally maintained earnings profitability, those earnings were greatly hampered during the depth of the recession.
Those earnings have recovered but are still lower than they were five years ago on a per-share basis. The initial numbers at Chico's are trending positive and could be the leading indicator of a bargain. If you find Chico's numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. Start by reading this preview of Chico's in 2012.
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