As the world's third-richest person and most celebrated investor, Warren Buffett attracts a lot of attention. Thousands try to glean what they can from his thinking processes and track his investments.
We can't know for sure whether Buffett is about to buy Alcatel-Lucent
Writing in a recent 10-K, Buffett lays out the qualities he looks for in an investment. In addition to adequate size, proven management, and a reasonable valuation, he demands:
- Consistent earnings power.
- Good returns on equity with limited or no debt.
- Management in place.
- Simple, non-techno-mumbo-jumbo businesses.
Does Alcatel-Lucent meet Buffett's standards?
1. Earnings power
Buffett is famous for betting on a sure thing. For that reason, he likes to see companies with demonstrated earnings stability.
Let's examine Alcatel-Lucent's earnings and free cash flow history:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Over the past five years, Alcatel-Lucent has had a difficult time generating earnings, though it's been turning things around over the past year.
2. Return on equity and debt
Return on equity is a great metric for measuring both management's effectiveness and the strength of a company's competitive advantage or disadvantage -- a classic Buffett consideration. When considering return on equity, it's important to make sure a company doesn't have an enormous debt burden, because that will skew your calculations and make the company look much more efficient than it is.
Since competitive strength is a comparison between peers, and various industries have different levels of profitability and require different levels of debt, it helps to use an industry context.
Company |
Debt-to-Equity Ratio |
Return on Equity |
5-Year Average Return on Equity |
---|---|---|---|
Alcatel-Lucent | 130% | 19% | (23%) |
Nokia | 39% | 2% | 23% |
Cisco | 36% | 14% | 20% |
Motorola Solutions | 35% | 9% | 0% |
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Historically, Alcatel-Lucent hasn't generated very high returns on equity, though it has shown a dramatic improvement in recent years. It employs a considerable amount of debt.
3. Management
CEO Ben Verwaayen has been at the job since 2008. His time at Alcatel-Lucent started in 1997, interrupted for a few years when he was CEO of the massive London-based telco BT Group.
4. Business
Communications equipment requires constant research and development, but the industry isn't particularly susceptible to wholesale technological disruption.
The Foolish conclusion
So is Alcatel-Lucent a Buffett stock? Probably not. The company has a tenured CEO, but it doesn't yet exhibit the other characteristics of a quintessential Buffett investment: consistent earnings and high returns on equity with limited debt. To stay up to speed on Alcatel-Lucent's progress, simply add it to your stock watchlist. If you don't have one yet, you can create a watchlist of your favorite stocks by clicking here.