Neil Hennessy: Stick With No-Nonsense Investing Strategies

"I like to think I'm an economic realist," says Neil Hennessy, portfolio manager and chief investment officer of Hennessy Mutual Funds. Hennessy, who has been repeatedly ranked among Baron's Top 100 Mutual Fund Managers, is a fierce believer in the golden rule of investing: No emotions.

We live in an instant gratification world, but the idea isn't a good one in the long term.  "We have to be disciplined and non-emotional. If you're emotional it's going to get ugly at some point in time."

Instead, Hennessy sticks to time-tested strategies, which include the application of the price-to-sales ratio -- focusing on companies with a maximum 1.5:1 value criteria.

"Excluding auto, financing, and housing, you see that from 2008 through 2012, companies have made a tremendous amount of money -- corporate earnings are at an all time high," says Hennessy. "From an investing standpoint, the market is in good shape."

Japan: "Sales are going to explode."
Hennessy loves Japan's potential. "Japan is just like the U.S. in a lot of ways -- they have high debt and high deficits, political instability and other problems. But a lot of good things are happening over there." Just consider that Japan has the world's strongest currency.

After the natural disasters last year, more than 100 countries offered aid to Japan, implying that over 100 countries are invested in Japan. It is, after all, host to many worldwide companies, and in wake of recent volatility, Japan's companies are increasingly moving their supply line to more stable places around the world.

Hennessy explains the average person in Japan still has $75,000 in savings because they are waiting for inflation to reverse. If the yen to weakens, products will become more affordable and Japan will experience significantly higher spending levels.

Advice
Investing in equities are the best option right now, especially if you're young and building your finances. You're not going to be buying up real estate or foreign exchange, and bonds aren't worth much at current interest rates.

"The old Italians had it right. They bought things and never sold." Hennessy recommends young investors do the same by accumulating stocks month over month, year over year, piece by piece. "Just don't put all of your savings in Apple, because if it goes down you'll be discouraged." 

Business section: Investing ideas
Hennessy's Focus 30 Fund follows the following investing criteria. Note that the requirements are all technical, and there is no emotional evaluation:

  • Market cap from $1 billion to $10 billion, no ADRs.
  • Price-to-sales ratio of 1.5 or less.
  • Higher earnings than prior year.
  • Positive relative strength (price appreciation) over three to six month period.
  • Narrowed down to the 30 companies with the best relative strength over 12 month period in equal dollar amounts.
  • Hold them for approximately 1 year, then rebalance.

Think this formula is promising? Interested in emulating his Focus 30 strategy? For names to consider, here are some stocks that met the following similar criteria:

  • Market caps from $1 billion to 10 billion.
  • P/S less than 1.5.
  • Positive EPS growth quarter over quarter.
  • Positive yearly performance.
  • Average volume above 50,000 (for liquidity).

In addition, we searched for companies with encouraging inventory trends, higher growth in revenue than inventory year over year, as well as inventory comprising a smaller portion of current assets over the same time period.

To understand why these trends are positive, think why the opposite trends would be negative. If a company sees higher growth in inventory than revenue, it may indicate that the company is having trouble selling its inventory (although management may just have decided to hold more inventory in anticipation of greater future sales).

We were left with 30 names, listed in detail below and sorted by market cap. (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)

1. Dr Pepper Snapple Group: Engages in the manufacture and distribution of non-alcoholic beverages in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Industry: Beverages -- soft drinks. Market cap: $8.57 billion. Price/sales ratio of 1.45. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 25.88%. Yearly performance 8.21%. Average volume: 1,688,008. Revenue grew by 3.47% during the most recent quarter ($1,461 million vs. $1,412 million y/y). Inventory grew by -13.11% during the same time period ($212 million vs. $244 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 18.64% to 12.07% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

2. ONEOK: Operates as a natural gas distributor primarily in the United States. Industry: gas utilities. Market cap: $8.43 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.57. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 8.04%. Yearly performance 28.41%. Average volume: 659,915. Revenue grew by 24.12% during the most recent quarter ($4,071.04 million vs. $3,280.05 million y/y). Inventory grew by -22.21% during the same time period ($549.91 million vs. $706.91 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 29.71% to 23.72% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

3. PetSmart: Operates as a specialty retailer of products, services, and solutions for pets in North America. Industry: specialty retail -- other. Market cap: $6.25 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.02. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 26.75%. Yearly performance 37.49%. Average volume: 558,606. Revenue grew by 7.75% during the most recent quarter ($1,637.83 million vs. $1,520.03 million y/y). Inventory grew by 4.71% during the same time period ($644.86 million vs. $615.84 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 54.79% to 51.02% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending Jan. 29, 2012 to 13 weeks ending Jan. 30, 2011).

4. Energizer Holdings: Manufacturers and sells primary batteries, portable lighting, and personal care products worldwide. Industry: personal products. Market cap: $4.79 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.03. EPS growth quarter over quarter at -35%. Yearly performance 4.31%. Average volume: 398,788. Revenue grew by 1.78% during the most recent quarter ($1,198.1 million vs. $1,177.1 million y/y). Inventory grew by -5.69% during the same time period ($640.9 million vs. $679.6 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 28.39% to 26.1% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

5. Foot Locker: Operates as a retailer of athletic footwear and apparel. Industry: apparel stores. Market cap: $4.74 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.84. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 66.95%. Yearly performance 49.19%. Average volume: 1,673,231. Revenue grew by 7.9% during the most recent quarter ($1,502 million vs. $1,392 million y/y). Inventory grew by 0.94% during the same time period ($1,069 million vs. $1,059 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 54.76% to 51.42% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending Jan. 28, 2012 to 13 weeks ending Jan. 29, 2011).

6. Valspar (NYSE: VAL  ) : Distributes coatings, paints, and related products worldwide. Industry: specialty chemicals. Market cap: $4.67 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.17. EPS growth quarter over quarter at -166.76%. Yearly performance 31.58%. Average volume: 486,988. Revenue grew by 5.13% during the most recent quarter ($885.65 million vs. $842.4 million y/y). Inventory grew by -5.89% during the same time period ($380.94 million vs. $404.78 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 32.02% to 26.69% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending Jan. 27, 2012 to 13 weeks ending Jan. 28, 2011).

7. AutoNation: Operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. Industry: auto dealerships. Market cap: $4.23 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.31. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 30.05%. Yearly performance 3.1%. Average volume: 666,428. Revenue grew by 13.31% during the most recent quarter ($3,678.4 million vs. $3,246.2 million y/y). Inventory grew by -3.1% during the same time period ($1,809.2 million vs. $1,867 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 71.02% to 67.6% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

8. Cosan: Engages in the production and sale of sugar and ethanol products. Industry: confectioners. Market cap: $3.71 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.3. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 28.7%. Yearly performance 17.89%. Average volume: 3,368,265. Revenue grew by 23.21% during the most recent quarter ($6,310.7 million vs. $5,122.05 million y/y). Inventory grew by -29.29% during the same time period ($1,354.4 million vs. $1,915.41 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 35.06% to 27.01% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

9. Patterson: Operates as a distributor serving the dental, companion-pet veterinarian, and rehabilitation supply markets in North America. Industry: medical equipment wholesale. Market cap: $3.68 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.06. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 6.31%. Yearly performance 0.85%. Average volume: 688,697. Revenue grew by 8.53% during the most recent quarter ($895.03 million vs. $824.65 million y/y). Inventory grew by 3.56% during the same time period ($334.77 million vs. $323.27 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 27.49% to 24.97% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending Jan. 28, 2012 to 13 weeks ending Jan. 29, 2011).

10. RPM International: Together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells various specialty chemical products to industrial and consumer markets worldwide. Industry: specialty chemicals. Market cap: $3.46 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.95. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 4.3%. Yearly performance 18.21%. Average volume: 622,068. Revenue grew by 13.95% during the most recent quarter ($773.64 million vs. $678.92 million y/y). Inventory grew by 9.34% during the same time period ($517.17 million vs. $472.98 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 30.88% to 30.7% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Feb. 29, 2012 to three months ending Feb. 28, 2011).

11. WESCO International: Supplies electrical, industrial and communications maintenance, repair, and operating products. Industry: industrial equipment Wholesale. Market cap: $2.85 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.47. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 57.93%. Yearly performance 9.42%. Average volume: 548,678. Revenue grew by 19.37% during the most recent quarter ($1,589.52 million vs. $1,331.59 million y/y). Inventory grew by 6.47% during the same time period ($626.97 million vs. $588.85 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 38.9% to 36.09% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

12. Cabela's (NYSE: CAB  ) : Operates as a specialty retailer and direct marketer of hunting, fishing, camping, and related outdoor merchandise. Industry: sporting goods stores. Market cap: $2.7 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.96. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 23.26%. Yearly performance 52.14%. Average volume: 701,625. Revenue grew by 5.28% during the most recent quarter ($983.75 million vs. $934.41 million y/y). Inventory grew by -2.8% during the same time period ($494.83 million vs. $509.1 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 14.36% to 12.04% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending Dec. 31, 2011 to 13 weeks ending Jan. 1, 2011).

13. Armstrong World Industries: Engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of flooring products and ceiling systems in the Americas, Europe, and the Pacific Rim. Industry: general building materials. Market cap: $2.65 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.93. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 904.21%. Yearly performance 3.2%. Average volume: 341,666. Revenue grew by 1.43% during the most recent quarter ($652.1 million vs. $642.9 million y/y). Inventory grew by -2.41% during the same time period ($388.9 million vs. $398.5 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 39.04% to 32.16% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

14. Diebold: Provides integrated self-service delivery and security systems and services primarily to the financial, commercial, government, and retail markets worldwide. Industry: business equipment. Market cap: $2.45 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.86. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 815.04%. Yearly performance 14.43%. Average volume: 692,864. Revenue grew by 7.46% during the most recent quarter ($849.99 million vs. $790.99 million y/y). Inventory grew by -0.83% during the same time period ($440.9 million vs. $444.57 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 25.94% to 25.45% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

15. PriceSmart (Nasdaq: PSMT  ) : Operates warehouse clubs in the United States, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Industry: discount/variety stores. Market cap: $2.36 billion. Price/Sales ratio at 1.24. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 24.99%. Yearly performance 101.11%. Average volume: 349,009. Revenue grew by 22.29% during the most recent quarter ($549.83 million vs. $449.62 million y/y). Inventory grew by 18.6% during the same time period ($179.9 million vs. $151.69 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 59.33% to 57.46% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Feb. 29, 2012 to three months ending Feb. 28, 2011).

16. Vectren: Provides energy delivery services to residential, commercial, and industrial and other customers in Indiana and west central Ohio. Industry: diversified utilities. Market cap: $2.35 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.01. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 5.26%. Yearly performance 10.52%. Average volume: 243,122. Revenue grew by 11.22% during the most recent quarter ($627.4 million vs. $564.1 million y/y). Inventory grew by -13.47% during the same time period ($161.9 million vs. $187.1 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 29.0% to 26.54% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

17. HSN: Markets and sells a range of third party and private label merchandise primarily in the United States. Industry: specialty retail. Market cap: $2.22 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.7. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 22.56%. Yearly performance 18.67%. Average volume: 274,842. Revenue grew by 4.35% during the most recent quarter ($955 million vs. $915.22 million y/y). Inventory grew by 0.02% during the same time period ($296.46 million vs. $296.39 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 32.3% to 30.56% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

18. AO Smith: Engages in the manufacture and sale of water heating equipment to the residential and commercial markets in the United States and internationally. Industry: industrial electrical equipment. Market cap: $2.08 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.21. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 92.35%. Yearly performance 6.98%. Average volume: 281,358. Revenue grew by 28.53% during the most recent quarter ($475.8 million vs. $370.2 million y/y). Inventory grew by 14.71% during the same time period ($168.4 million vs. $146.8 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 16.38% to 13.93% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

19. Coinstar (Nasdaq: CSTR  ) : Provides automated retail solutions primarily in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, and Ireland. Industry: specialty retail. Market cap: $2.03 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.1. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 77.34%. Yearly performance 35.05%. Average volume: 1,336,904. Revenue grew by 33.19% during the most recent quarter ($520.46 million vs. $390.76 million y/y). Inventory grew by 1.48% during the same time period ($142.39 million vs. $140.32 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 28.73% to 21.84% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

20. Darling International (NYSE: DAR  ) : Provides rendering, recycling, and recovery solutions to the food industry worldwide. Industry: waste management. Market cap: $1.93 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.07. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 175.92%. Yearly performance 8.11%. Average volume: 1,125,866. Revenue grew by 89.62% during the most recent quarter ($430.87 million vs. $227.23 million y/y). Inventory grew by 11.44% during the same time period ($50.83 million vs. $45.61 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 24.58% to 23.14% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending Dec. 31, 2011 to 13 weeks ending Jan. 1, 2011).

21. Snyder's-Lance: Engages in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of various snack food products. Industry: processed and packaged goods. Market cap: $1.73 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.06. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 663.97%. Yearly performance 37.73%. Average volume: 272,515. Revenue grew by 44.55% during the most recent quarter ($412.13 million vs. $285.12 million y/y). Inventory grew by 9.61% during the same time period ($106.26 million vs. $96.94 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 29.94% to 27.38% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Jan. 1, 2011).

22. Thor Industries: Together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of recreation vehicles and small and mid-size buses, as well as related parts and accessories in the United States and Canada. Industry: recreational vehicles. Market cap: $1.71 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.59. EPS growth quarter over quarter at -7.37%. Yearly performance 9.94%. Average volume: 359,171. Revenue grew by 13.44% during the most recent quarter ($596.97 million vs. $526.23 million y/y). Inventory grew by -9.32% during the same time period ($192.22 million vs. $211.98 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 39.28% to 33.23% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Jan. 31, 2012 to three months ending Jan. 31, 2011).

23. Mine Safety Appliances: Develops, manufactures, and supplies health and safety products used by workers in the fire service, homeland security, construction, and other industries, as well as the military. Industry: medical appliances and equipment. Market cap: $1.53 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.3. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 81.15%. Yearly performance 18.97%. Average volume: 141,180. Revenue grew by 5.58% during the most recent quarter ($304.78 million vs. $288.68 million y/y). Inventory grew by -6.05% during the same time period ($141.47 million vs. $150.58 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 31.54% to 30.83% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

24. West Pharmaceutical Services: Manufactures and sells components and systems for injectable drug delivery and plastic packaging, and delivery system components for the pharmaceutical, health care, and consumer products industries. Industry: medical instruments and supplies. Market cap: $1.52 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.28. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 13.73%. Yearly performance 1.26%. Average volume: 590,571. Revenue grew by 6.72% during the most recent quarter ($295.4 million vs. $276.8 million y/y). Inventory grew by 3.27% during the same time period ($151.8 million vs. $147 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 33.67% to 32.16% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

25. Cash America International: Provides specialty financial services to individuals primarily in the United States and Mexico. Industry: credit services. Market cap: $1.34 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.87. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 15.95%. Yearly performance 4.55%. Average volume: 167,360. Revenue grew by 25.6% during the most recent quarter ($463.25 million vs. $368.84 million y/y). Inventory grew by 21.6% during the same time period ($151.27 million vs. $124.4 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 19.99% to 18.56% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

26. Franklin Electric: Engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of groundwater and fuel pumping systems. Industry: industrial electrical equipment. Market cap: $1.19 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.45. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 60.27%. Yearly performance 15.74%. Average volume: 106,670. Revenue grew by 7.01% during the most recent quarter ($187.24 million vs. $174.97 million y/y). Inventory grew by 1.04% during the same time period ($141.69 million vs. $140.23 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 36.99% to 35.38% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending Dec. 31, 2011 to 13 weeks ending Jan. 1, 2011).

27. Elizabeth Arden: Engages in manufacture, distribution, marketing, and sale of fragrances, skin care, and cosmetic products to retailers and other outlets in the United States and internationally. Industry: personal products. Market cap: $1.16 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.95. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 108.26%. Yearly performance 27.58%. Average volume: 331,735. Revenue grew by 5.99% during the most recent quarter ($429.93 million vs. $405.63 million y/y). Inventory grew by -4.88% during the same time period ($264.63 million vs. $278.21 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 45.48% to 43.06% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

28. Scholastic: Operates as a children's publishing, education, and media company primarily in the United States. Industry: publishing -- books. Market cap: $1.06 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.53. EPS growth quarter over quarter at -18.65%. Yearly performance 31%. Average volume: 200,544. Revenue grew by 21.52% during the most recent quarter ($467 million vs. $384.3 million y/y). Inventory grew by 6.06% during the same time period ($397.2 million vs. $374.5 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 46.37% to 43.09% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Feb. 29, 2012 to three months ending Feb. 28, 2011).

29. Schweitzer-Mauduit International: Manufactures and sells paper and reconstituted tobacco products to the tobacco industry, as well as specialized paper products for use in other applications. Industry: paper and paper products. Market cap: $1.06 billion. Price/sales ratio at 1.3. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 33.06%. Yearly performance 36.87%. Average volume: 119,245. Revenue grew by 19.31% during the most recent quarter ($218.1 million vs. $182.8 million y/y). Inventory grew by 0.% during the same time period ($113.8 million vs. $113.8 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 36.38% to 34.8% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

30. Euronet Worldwide: Provides electronic payment services. Industry: business services. Market cap: $1.06 billion. Price/sales ratio at 0.91. EPS growth quarter over quarter at 194.7%. Yearly performance 14.99%. Average volume: 127,216. Revenue grew by 12.54% during the most recent quarter ($319.4 million vs. $283.81 million y/y). Inventory grew by 1.65% during the same time period ($98.82 million vs. $97.22 million y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 13.35% to 13.11% during the most recent quarter (comparing three months ending Dec. 31, 2011 to three months ending Dec. 31, 2010).

Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.


 

Kapitall's Rebecca Lipman does not own any of the shares mentioned above. EPS data sourced from Yahoo! Finance, all other data from Google Finance and Finviz. The Motley Fool owns shares of Darling International. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of ONEOK, PetSmart, Energizer Holdings, Mine Safety Appliances, Cabela's, PriceSmart, and Coinstar. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.


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