Another Dendreon Earnings Disaster?

Dendreon, a former highflier filled with potential, now sits more than 80% lower than its 52-week peak. Sales of revolutionary prostate cancer vaccine Provenge have shown slowing growth after a ballyhooed launch. With shares beaten down, positive guidance from management could cause a pop; otherwise, it could be more disappointment for investors.

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David Williamson owns shares of Johnson & Johnson and Dendreon, but he holds no other position in any company mentioned. Click here to see his holdings and a short bio. The Motley Fool owns shares of Johnson & Johnson and Dendreon. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Johnson & Johnson and creating a diagonal call position in Johnson & Johnson. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2012, at 8:40 AM, lebronz wrote:

    Dave,

    In your video you say, "What appears to be slowly declining sales"

    Really?

    Hey, the following is Provenge quarterly sales growth since launch back in April, 2010 (when the FDA finally approved Provenge). How does this quarterly growth appear to you? Does sales growth appear solid even when they had to go through a politically driven Medicare CMS process (which lasted from June 2010 to June 2011).

    Did DNDN continue to grow sales on a year to year basis given the political headwinds from CMS and the FUD purported by wallstreet media about Medicare not covering the treatment? You decide what quarterly sales trend there is Dave (graph it out in your head); as the quarterly numbers don’t lie:

    Q2/10: $2.8MM (30 dying men treated)

    Q3/10: $20.2MM (215 dying men treated)

    Q4/10: $25MM (269 dying men treated)

    2010 Revenue Total: $48MM (514 men in total treated)

    Q1/11: $28MM (301 dying men treated)

    Q2/11: $49.6MM (533 dying men treated)

    Q3/11: $64.3MM (691 dying men treated)

    Q4/11: $77MM (828 dying men treated)

    2011 Revenue Total: $220MM (2366 men)

    Q1/12: $82MM (882 dying men treated)

    Q2/12: $80MM (861 dying men treated)

    Q3/12: TBD

    Q4/12: TBD

    2012 Revenue Total So Far: $162MM

    Total Revenue Since Provenge Launched: $430MM!

    That’s just 4,623 men treated with Provenge so far (430MM divided by $93,000)!

    TREATING JUST 4,623 MEN SINCE PROVENGE LAUNCH 2.5 YEARS AGO BARELY MAKES A DENT IN THE OVERALL U.S. mCRPC market of 30,000 newly diagnosed each year and the almost 100,000 men living with mCRPC!

    ARE YOUR COOL VIDEOS REALLY GOING TO FOCUS ON THE TINY 2 MILLION DECREASE FROM Q1 TO Q2 THIS YEAR AFTER SEEING THE QUARTER OVER QUARTER GROWTH SINCE LAUNCH? DNDN has their first decrease in sales and now its reported like it’s the end of the world or the competition is causing this!

    IS YOUR VIDEO REALLY GOING TO FOCUS ON THE 6 MILLION SHORTFALL FROM MANIPULATED CONSENSUS ANALYST ESTIMATE OF 86 MILLION FOR Q2?

    Dave, come on,

    Try to remain analytical/mathematical when you do your coolish type videos on DNDN.

    You're long dndn so try to encourage others to invest to do well from this sleeper biotech (who's stock is being controlled by major instititional/hedgefund shorts) doing great things for men dying from prostate cancer.

    Thanks man!

    L

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2012, at 9:12 AM, lebronz wrote:

    Oh, and Dave,

    If you want to get more "hits" on your articles/videos (besides just myself) on super biotechs like DNDN, you've got to purport way way way way way way way...more falsehoods about biotech companies with great future potential.

    It's kind of like mirroring what Adam F from TheStreet.com does with his followers. His ability to inaccurately report info on promising companies like DNDN back in 2009 is far & wide the best! Doing this generates heightened emotion within his readers and they immediately comment in anger on his articles like moths being drawn to a flame. You've really go to have thick skin and just plain don't care what your readers think about you;.....Go All In With Adam's route... OR

    You can take the path of writing/videoing and report info as it EXACTLY WHAT COMES FROM THE CFO'S MOUTH (SCHIFFMAN)DURING HIS CONFERENCE CALLS. I trust you listen to them ( http://investor.dendreon.com/events.cfm)

    Like for instance; regarding yours/wallstreets theory of the threat of competition from MDV3100 or Zytiga driving sales downward.

    First, ethical doctors (urologists/oncologists) will treat dying patients with their interests at heart, not the competition’s interest!

    Second, doctors will "sequence" the available pc therapies to extend survival of the dying patient to the maximum! Seniors want to maintain their quality of life, not be held up in a hospital for treatment of side effects from chemical regimens. This is just common sense! If you’re trying to prolong someone’s life and you have 3 options, urologists/oncologists will find a legitimate way to sequence the available pc therapies to benefit the dying patient...not greedy wallstreet!

    And third, there is a little bitty incentive for doctors to infuse Provenge. It's only $5500 per patient. Mentioning this however makes me sick because the FOCUS SHOULD BE ON DYING PATIENTS!

    Make sense Dave?

    Good luck with future videos on dndn Dave. Remember, you either have to be like Adam F or report what comes from the CFO's mouth in his conference calls. You can't be in between or you'll just have me commenting on your posts.

    L

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