Why LeapFrog Shares Stumbled

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Investors were passing over shares of LeapFrog Enterprises (NYSE: LF  ) today, sending the stock down 15% after the educational products maker reported second-quarter earnings.

So what: The company actually beat revenue and earnings estimates, and raised guidance, so it was a little odd to see shares heading downward. LeapFrog is a seasonal business that takes in a vast majority of its sales in the second half of the year so its second-quarter results were widely ignored. Analysts seemed to be concerned that the company may not be ready for any unexpected demand in the second half. Inventory levels are down about 16% from where they were last year, and management expressed caution about the slowdown in the economy.

Now what: LeapFrog stock had also climbed about 300% over the year before the recent decline, and had gained 10% in just the week before so the good news may have already been priced in, and some had argued it was ready for a pullback. The company had struggled through most of the last decade, but has finally returned to profitability. Expected top-line growth won't be enough support the share price appreciation we've seen though. Management's guiding for 13%-15% sales growth this year while Wall Street sees just a 7% increase in 2013. For now, it looks as though the stock will no longer be playing leapfrog with the broad market.

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