3 Predictions for This Week

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that played out.

  • I predicted that Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) would close out the week with positive gains. The company's second-quarter report on Tuesday was strong, and the debut of the company's on demand streaming service generated bullish enthusiasm. Shares of the satellite radio provider soared nearly 15% on the week, hitting multi-year highs along the way. I was right.
  • I predicted that the tech-heavy NASDAQ would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (INDEX: ^DJI  ) . This was a consistent winning call during the first quarter, but it's been hit or miss during the past few months. The market had a strong week, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ surging 1.8% higher. The Dow only managed to gain half as much, closing out the week with a nearly 0.9% gain. I was right.
  • My final call was for SodaStream (Nasdaq: SODA  ) to beat what Wall Street analysts were forecasting on the bottom line in its latest quarter. The company behind the globally popular soda maker has been landing ahead of market profit expectations consistently over the past year. Well, SodaStream didn't let me down. Adjusted earnings climbed 41% to $0.52 a share, surpassing the $0.46 a share that analysts were forecasting. I was right.

Three out of three? Awesome!

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. SINA will close higher on Thursday
Former Chinese dot-com darling SINA (Nasdaq: SINA  ) has fallen well off of last year's highs.

Investors have lost their patience when it comes to most Chinese tech companies, especially those where profit margins have been contracting.

SINA has a perfectly reasonable excuse. The success of its SINA Weibo platform has required capital to grow, but turning on the monetization of the micro-blogging site has been a challenge.

Its quarterly report and conference call on Wednesday night should help grow awareness of the money-making potential of SINA Weibo. The quarter itself may not be pretty, but the potential for a hearty near-term outlook should be enough to get the shares moving higher again on Thursday.

2.The NASDAQ Composite will beat the Dow this week 
Betting on tech over stodgy blue chips was a steady winning bet for me earlier this year. This has been a losing bet lately, but I still think that technology is the best sector to be invested in these days.

I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point.

The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 mega-caps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3.Myriad Genetics will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat out better than others.

Myriad Genetics (Nasdaq: MYGN  ) develops and markets high-end tests to assist medical professionals in diagnosing ailments. Nearly a million patients have already gone though Myriad's diagnostics.

Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers.

If analysts say that the company earned $0.34 a share in its latest quarter, I'll whip out a "greater than" sign. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

  EPS est. EPS Surprise
Q4 2011 $0.29 $0.30 3%
Q1 2012 $0.28 $0.29 4%
Q2 2012 $0.31 $0.33 7%
Q3 2012 $0.32 $0.34 6%

Source: Thomson Reuters.Things can change, of course.

The state of healthcare is obviously in a state of flux. Myriad may seem to be protected, given the need and proven nature of its tests, but the country's medical system is a work in progress.

However, there are no signs of the company fumbling this quarter to the point of failing to live up to Wall Street guesstimates.

Everything still seems to be falling into place for another strong quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, that's three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.

If you like to stay on top of what happens next -- and I'm guessing you do, because you're reading this article -- how about checking out Motley Fool's top stock for 2012? It's a free report, but only for a limited time, so check it out now.

The Motley Fool owns shares of Sodastream International. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Sodastream International and SINA. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz calls them as he sees them. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.


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  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2012, at 8:34 AM, doubting wrote:

    Rick,

    It is fantastic that you were right regarding siri surge. This is no surprise to me who have been following you for some time. Your siri analysis has been down to earth being based on FACTS rather than hallucinations as is the case with most of siri writers.

    I will not be surprised if on the upcoming news of refinancing and partly repaying 2013 debt siri will surge well above $2.50 in the next two weeks or even sooner, depending when this news is announced. Mark my word!!!

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