August 14, 2012
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Velti (Nasdaq: VELT ) popped when the market opened today, starting the day up 16%. The stock's settled into a gain of about 13% as of this writing, driven by a quarterly report that more or less confirmed the Street's expectations. Revenue came in ahead of the consensus estimates, but EPS was as expected. The company took that ball and ran with it toward higher guidance for the full year, its second such boost to its own guidance in as many quarters.
So what: Quarterly adjusted EBITDA doubled from the year-ago quarter to $6.2 million, with $7.0 million in free cash flow, not counting acquisition and debt payments. Revenue for the quarter, at $58.7 million, represented a 71% gain over the year-ago quarter. Full-year revenue is now expected to be $285 million to $296 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to clock in at anywhere from $82 million to $88 million for 2012.
Now what: Velti's short public history has yet to record any positive full-year GAAP earnings, but both its net income and its free cash flow improved quite a bit this quarter. This mobile advertising company currently sports a market cap of $500 million after dropping by half in its public life. If Velti can get its full-year free cash flow numbers to just $20 million, it would sport a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 25, which is a healthy number for a young company in a brutally competitive industry. That makes Velti worth a closer look, in my mind, but it's probably not yet time to dive in feet-first.
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