Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Velti
So what: Quarterly adjusted EBITDA doubled from the year-ago quarter to $6.2 million, with $7.0 million in free cash flow, not counting acquisition and debt payments. Revenue for the quarter, at $58.7 million, represented a 71% gain over the year-ago quarter. Full-year revenue is now expected to be $285 million to $296 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to clock in at anywhere from $82 million to $88 million for 2012.
Now what: Velti's short public history has yet to record any positive full-year GAAP earnings, but both its net income and its free cash flow improved quite a bit this quarter. This mobile advertising company currently sports a market cap of $500 million after dropping by half in its public life. If Velti can get its full-year free cash flow numbers to just $20 million, it would sport a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 25, which is a healthy number for a young company in a brutally competitive industry. That makes Velti worth a closer look, in my mind, but it's probably not yet time to dive in feet-first.
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