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What Will Facebook Buy Next?

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Let the Instagram digestion process begin.

Facebook (Nasdaq: FB  ) is ready to swallow down Instagram.

Finding the deal to be "fair, just and equitable" yesterday, the California Department of Corporations is nodding approvingly at Facebook's intentions to complete the stock and cash deal. Facebook received antitrust approval from the FTC last week.

The deal for Instagram turned heads earlier this year for its stiff $1 billion price tag, though just $300 million of the deal was in cash. The value of the equity component has cratered as the social networking leader's stock has tanked since May's IPO. The deal is now worth closer to $740 million.

However, there's no reason for Facebook to sit still. There are plenty of companies worth acquiring. Pushing stock may be a hard sell after seeing the share price cut in half since May's IPO at $38 but, thankfully, Facebook is flush with cash. The dot-com titan closed out its latest quarter with $10.2 billion in cash, including $6.8 million raised during its springtime IPO.

Let's go over some of the public companies that may make tempting acquisition targets.

Ancestry.com (Nasdaq: ACOM  )
You don't need to twist Ancestry.com's arm. The leading genealogy website is apparently on the market. Sources are telling Bloomberg that it's trying to smoke out higher buyout offers than what it has gotten from a pair of private equity firms.

Care to cut in, Facebook?

As impressive as Facebook's growth may be, it's still relying on ad revenue for 84% of its revenue. Acquiring a premium genealogy website would help diversify its revenue streams. One can also only imagine how much larger Ancestry.com's subscriber base of 2 million would get, once promoted to Facebook's 955 million connection-hungry users.    

Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN  )
Yes, the daily deals leader is a mess. The stock has shed more than 40% of its value since posting disappointing quarterly results two weeks ago. However, the company that went public as a $12 billion company is now worth less than $3 billion. Back out the company's nearly $1.2 billion in cash and equivalents, and you arrive at an enterprise value of less than $2 billion.

Groupon is profitable and growing, much to the surprise of many skeptics who argue that the company, and its model, are irreparably broken. Analysts see Groupon earning nearly $250 million next year on $2.8 billion in revenue.  In short, it would be accretive to Facebook. Yes, Mark Zuckerberg abandoned taking on Groupon with its short-lived Facebook Deals last year. It wasn't worth the investment to chase the hype. Well, now that the investment and hype have settled down, Facebook has a great opportunity to jump back in with the market leader.

Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  )
If Groupon is a controversial choice, let's raise the stakes with Netflix. Investors may not like Netflix these days, but the company closed out its latest quarter with more than 30 million subscribers.

Facebook knows Netflix. CEO Reed Hastings sits on Facebook's board. Integration of the two companies would make it easier for Netflix to grow as it continues its global push, while Facebook expands its influence beyond the desktop.

Zynga (Nasdaq: ZNGA  )
Oh, yes. I went there.

Zynga joins Groupon as busted IPOs that trade at a sliver of their original debutante prices, yet can back up nearly half of their current market caps with balance sheet greenery.

The social gaming leader behind CityVille and Words With Friends is clearly out of favor, but it still accounts for a good chunk of Facebook's business outside of ad revenue. One can rightfully argue that Facebook shouldn't play favorites by snapping up the top producer of Facebook apps. There's some deep merit to remaining developer agnostic. However, acquiring Zynga would be a smart way to make sure that it doesn't come up on the losing end of the equation, as casual and social gaming migrate to smartphones.

Ready those bidding cards
A year ago, $10.2 billion wouldn't be enough to buy Groupon, Netflix, or Zynga.

Today that's enough to buy all three companies combined -- along with Ancestry.com as a door prize.

Are there opportunities to be had in snapping up privately held darlings that can't go public to raise money in this environment? Absolutely. However, there are plenty of publicly traded bargains there for the bidding.

C'mon, Facebook. It's time for a little back-to-school shopping.

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The Motley Fool owns shares of Netflix, Facebook, and Ancestry.com. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Ancestry.com, Netflix, and Facebook. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz calls them as he sees them. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story, except for Netflix. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (4)

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 30, 2012, at 9:13 PM, ravens9111 wrote:

    You want FB, which is already struggling to monetize nearly 1 billion users, to buy these other companies, that are also struggling to keep their head above water? Instead of one big IPO bust, you will have a giant company that will be even harder to manage. Sometimes, more is not better. FB would have to figure out what synergies would exist if they bought them out. ACOM has been profitable consistently. NFLX is on the decline with exorbitant content costs and a user base that will eventually cancel subscriptions due to the lack of streaming quality. ZNGA and GRPN both are on the brink. How do you suggest bringing all of these companies under one umbrella and suddenly make them work? You won't be able to buy them at their current price. You would have to pay a premium to buy them out so your figure is way off. I don't see why FB would even buy ZNGA when FB could develop their gaming on their own site. In fact, they could kick ZNGA off and reap the benefits. FB could also do their own daily deal, but really why would they want to bother if it's a failed business model?

    A company can't solve their own internal and structural problems by buying other companies. It's apparent FB has issues that need to be resolved before they make further acquisitions. Until FB can grow earnings from their current business model, I don't see any reason why they would buy their way into growth when their earnings aren't that great to begin with. $1.1 billion in revenue last quarter is a joke. Revenue growth is slowing. The growth story for FB is over. Maybe they can figure out a way to monetize mobile, but until that happens it makes absolutely no sense to buy FB shares or for FB to buy other companies on the brink of disaster (except ACOM).

  • Report this Comment On August 30, 2012, at 10:12 PM, TMFBreakerRick wrote:

    Ravens9111, thanks for your great feedback.

    I certainly didn't want to suggest that Facebook should buy them ALL. I was just using that example to show how far three of the four companies had fallen.

    However, all four of these companies have large net cash positions. They add up to a total of $6.7 billion in enterprise value. Obviously they wouldn't go out without a healthy premium -- and clearly they each have their own unique challenges (especially the three that have fallen sharply). However, between Facebook's user base and the nature of these scalable models I do think that any of these companies would be immediately accretive to Facebook's earnings and better off with Facebook as an owner than they would be alone.

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Related Tickers

5/24/2013 4:00 PM
NFLX $228.74 Up +2.56 +1.13%
Netflix CAPS Rating: **
ZNGA $3.39 Down +0.00 +0.00%
ZYNGA INC CAPS Rating: *
GRPN $7.21 Up +0.08 +1.12%
Groupon, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
ACOM $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Ancestry.com CAPS Rating: ***
FB $24.31 Down -0.75 -2.98%
Facebook CAPS Rating: **

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