Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of ski-resort operator Vail Resorts
So what: Unseasonably warm weather battered the ski-resort industry in 2012, but a wide fourth-quarter beat -- a loss of just $1.50 per share versus the consensus loss of $1.56 -- coupled with an upbeat outlook for 2013 suggests that things are starting to turn around. In fact, sales of season passes through last weekend are already up 21% from the year-ago period, giving Wall Street analysts some positive visibility into the upcoming ski season.
Now what: Management now expects full-year 2013 earnings of $50 million to $60 million and sees year-over-year EBITDA growth of roughly 30%. "Our guidance for fiscal 2013 anticipates a return to more normal weather conditions and the continuation of a challenging, but stable economic environment," said CEO Rob Katz in a statement. With the stock busting through a new 52-week high today and trading at P/E of nearly 50, however, much of that turnaround talk might already be baked into the price.
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