December 12, 2012
Analysts at Vanguard recently looked at stock market data going back to 1928. What they found was important for all investors: Metrics that we pay a lot of attention to -- GDP, earnings growth, dividend yields, estimates of earnings growth -- tell you very little about what the stock market will do over the following decade. Almost nothing, in fact.
Amazingly, rainfall, which should be irrelevant to stock market returns, was a more helpful metric to follow than analysts' projections of earnings growth.
In this video, Fool columnist Morgan Housel and Austin Smith discuss why the market is so hard to predict and what it means for investors going forward.
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