Can Alliance Resource Partners Beat These Numbers?

Alliance Resource Partners (Nasdaq: ARLP  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Jan. 29. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Alliance Resource Partners's revenues will grow 14.2% and EPS will contract -29.0%.

The average estimate for revenue is $541.8 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.37.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Alliance Resource Partners recorded revenue of $511.4 million. GAAP reported sales were 4.9% higher than the prior-year quarter's $487.7 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.42. GAAP EPS of $0.89 for Q3 were 59% lower than the prior-year quarter's $2.16 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 31.8%, 220 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 17.5%, 550 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 6.5%, 1,000 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $2.03 billion. The average EPS estimate is $5.95.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 710 members out of 731 rating the stock outperform, and 21 members rating it underperform. Among 200 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 194 give Alliance Resource Partners a green thumbs-up, and six give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Alliance Resource Partners is outperform, with an average price target of $75.25.

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Seth Jayson had no position in any company mentioned here at the time of publication. You can view his stock holdings here. He is co-advisor of Motley Fool Hidden Gems, which provides new small-cap ideas every month, backed by a real-money portfolio. The Motley Fool recommends Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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  • Report this Comment On January 27, 2013, at 1:41 PM, surewind wrote:

    I sold my ARLP for a loss, with dividend reinvestment, and 13 months. I'm usually more patient, but was the only loss leader on My Watchlist. There's too many better stocks that are not being beat down for their environmental exposures.

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