Why BlackBerry Is Poised to Underperform

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, wireless device specialist BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at BlackBerry and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

BlackBerry facts

Headquarters (founded)

Waterloo, Canada (1984)

Market Cap

$6.9 billion

Industry

Communications equipment

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$12. 6 billion

Management

CEO Thorsten Heins (since 2012)

CFO Brian Bidulka (since 2009)

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

19.6%

Cash/Debt

$2.7 billion / $0

Competitors

Apple

Google

Nokia

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 24% of the 5,880 members who have rated BlackBerry believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last month, one of those Fools, Sivivatu, succinctly summed up the BlackBerry bear case for our community: "BlackBerry while trying to change their image are still behind and losing ground to the incumbent mobile platforms (Apple and Android). The mobile market is primarily defined by the apps that can be used on a handset and the loyalty and vocal support of the current users."

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Read/Post Comments (20) | Recommend This Article (2)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 9:55 PM, BB104ever wrote:

    Brian,

    I hope you lose you house on your short position!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 10:06 PM, gordonthebull wrote:

    What kind of silly, crappy analysis are you using to determine if Blackberry will underperform. The data used predates to the old pre-blackberry 10 information and should be discounted as the based on carrier sales information, approximately 30%-50% of the current Z10 purchasers are non-blackberry users. This indicates that BB is gaining back some lost market share. Wait until the the US launch and you will be surprised at the results!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 10:17 PM, MotleyDirtbags wrote:

    This is too funny to be true. I checked your CAPS rating for BlackBerry and you're right. 24% of your users who rated it said it would underperform. What you failed to mention was 76% said it would outperform. The motley fools must really be getting desperate and scared out of their wits. Did you guys short the stock when it was at $7.00 per share? I certainly hope you did, LOL.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 10:30 PM, digibird wrote:

    What kind of garbage are you spewing here! Where's the analysis? Just a bunch of shorts who need to be reported to the SEC as what you are doing is illegal.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 10:31 PM, jwyoungy wrote:

    : "BlackBerry while trying to change their image are still behind and losing ground to the incumbent mobile platforms (Apple and Android).

    Are you kidding me? Where did you get the evidence that this is the case? I havn't seen any numbers of market share since Jan. 31, 2013 when blackberry z10s first went on sale. I also know that in markets where z10 has been on sale, a large portion of buyers are coming from Android and Apple. I guess they didn't know about the app thing. just another bear remark from someone who needs to look at the real information. March 28 is coming, you will all need to make up new stories then.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 10:44 PM, Oril wrote:

    So which is it, 180,000 plus or 24 percent of the 5880 fools?

    Come on now try and get your story straight you $&@"ing idiot!

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 10:47 PM, jwyoungy wrote:

    um, i'm on your side "Apple Suck" but Kim Jong-il passed away. Kim Jong-Un is now the little retard running the country.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 10:56 PM, Oril wrote:

    The motley fool owns shares of apple.

    It must really hurt to be losing market share to blackberry not to mention the close to three hundred dollars a share they have lost in the past three months.

    Keep shorting you fools it looks good on you.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 11:01 PM, criticalfool wrote:

    Hey you, what you gonna do when they come for you and ask you to cover at $100...hehehehe, yes BBRY will be in triple digits, mark this comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 07, 2013, at 11:45 PM, bb10qnx wrote:

    The Motley Poor hires a bunch of real fools.

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 1:03 AM, RunLogic wrote:

    The QNX/BB10 OS is disruptive technology and the incumbents are immediately at least 2 - 3 years behind, unless they can licence or acquire it.

    Everyone pushing the "lacking in apps" meme is missing the point... any other machine, device, or piece of code with the QNX kernel is like an extension of your device OS which becomes self aware to it's surroundings. The term "app", as understood now, will become a quaint notion in short time.

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 1:26 AM, PurpleBlue wrote:

    Real analysis is forward looking - this piece is written by somone that thinks the best way drive a car is staring in the rearview mirror.

    Very weak analysis

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 3:01 AM, TimKnows wrote:

    This site is for entertainment, there aren't actually any qualified analysts here, just comedians. The odd good piece slips past the retarded management but that's rare. This one didn't have to slip through.

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 8:14 AM, greenember wrote:

    "The mobile market is primarily defined by the apps that can be used on a handset and the loyalty and vocal support of the current users."

    So what you're saying is that Apple and Android provide no real advantage and that 3rd Party developers are the only reason they are successful

    Wow, this analysis is flawed no matter WHO you think is a better company

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 8:32 AM, magnaman1969 wrote:

    All surveys say BlackBerry has a renewed brand image. Dumb article...hope you get pounded in your short position. The fool is a joke!!

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 8:51 AM, tonyrenier wrote:

    How did this sentence merit a headline?

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 10:47 AM, NotAfoolHere wrote:

    I did not read the above because I know everything this bunch of fools say is just crap

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 11:11 AM, Wintex wrote:

    The disgraceful Motley Fool efforts to supress any and all positive analysis of BB stock is seriously undermining my confidence in your stock advisory service.

    I would urge that Dave and Tom to intervene before their leadership credibility of MF is permamently damaged.

  • Report this Comment On March 08, 2013, at 1:38 PM, Oril wrote:

    News Flash

    Unconfirmed reports this morning of an unidentified drone seen hovering over MF headquarters. The usual crowd of economic cyberterrorists there who have been posing as anal ysts are keeping their heads down.

    Obama wants his blackberry back.

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2013, at 3:22 PM, akita45 wrote:

    Dave and Tom Gardner,

    Please put a stop to this. The credibility of your website is under attack by silly articles like this that have no research. They are one-sided and blatantly non-objective. Please filter this or watch as millions filter Motley Fool from investment advice. Shame.

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