3 Predictions for Next Week

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

  • I predicted that IMAX (NYSE: IMAX  ) would close higher on the week. With a strong slate of potential summer blockbusters hitting movie theaters these days, betting on the provider of super-sized multiplex experiences seemed like a good call during a week that has been historically busy at the box office. IMAX shares moved 1.2% higher on the week, pushing into positive territory with a strong Friday. I was right.
  • I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) . This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, the market closed nicely higher this week. The Nasdaq moved 2.2% higher, and the Dow managed to close just 1.5% higher. I was right.
  • My final call was for Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ  ) to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The liquor leader behind Mondavi wines, Svedka vodkas, and other libations has been posting blowout quarterly results over the past year, and I was banking on seeing the trend continue. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.40 a share during the quarter, but Constellation came through with adjusted net income of $0.38. I was wrong.

Two out of three? I can do better than that.

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. Noodles & Co. will close lower on the week
It's clear that the market is hungry for Noodles & Co. (NASDAQ: NDLS  ) , the fast-casual dining chain that has seen its shares soar 161% in its first five trading days as a public company.

Is this really a $1.3 billion company, though? Revenue growth in the teens and positive comps in 28 of the past 29 quarters is impressive, but not for a company that rang up just $300 million in sales last year. This should be a solid investment once it settles in at a much more reasonable valuation, but for now it's just not worth the hype.

My first call is for Noodles & Co. to close lower on the week.

2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.

I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point, and tech should be what carries us through the economic recovery. The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3.Peregrine Pharmaceuticals will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: PPHM  ) is an upstart biotech targeting the treatment and diagnosis of cancer through monoclonal antibodies. It has a potential winner in its lead candidate that will begin its telltale phase 3 clinical trial later this year.

Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a loss of $0.06 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q4 2012

($0.13)

($0.10)

23%

Q1 2013

($0.11)

($0.07)

36%

Q2 2013

($0.09)

($0.08)

11%

Q3 2013

($0.07)

($0.04)

43%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. Despite posting lower deficits with every passing a quarter -- a welcome trend in and of itself in eyeing the loss that analysts are forecasting -- it's certainly not cheap to ramp up pivotal late-stage clinical trials.

However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.

The best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks -- three more predictions, if you will -- that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.


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  • Report this Comment On July 07, 2013, at 3:05 PM, 110254545yy wrote:

    My prediction is that TXTR will head towards $40

  • Report this Comment On July 07, 2013, at 4:38 PM, kfchild41 wrote:

    Will you quit predicting that the Nasdaq will beat the Dow. Who cares what a lame prediction week after week¡!!!!!!!!!

  • Report this Comment On July 07, 2013, at 6:04 PM, Awebb30 wrote:

    My prediction is that Noodles will close much, much higher in the long-term...which I thought was Motley Fool's mantra.

  • Report this Comment On July 07, 2013, at 6:46 PM, klstylez01 wrote:

    I actually enjoy reading about his predictions! Keep on going! Fool on

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