3 Economic Stories That Get Blown Out of Proportion

"We exaggerate misfortune and happiness alike." Honore de Balzac wrote. "We are never as bad off or as happy as we say we are."

How true, and how relevant to today's hyper-sensational media. 

Here are three economic stories I find overblown.

Overblown story No. 1: Student loans now exceed credit card loans
Nearly every article on student loans these days carries the same statistic: Student debt now exceeds credit card debt.

Is this supposed to be shocking? Am I supposed to be upset that more people are financing bachelor's degrees at 4% interest than plastic garden gnomes at 25% interest?

Student debt has put a lot of people in awful financial situations. But anecdotes aren't trends, as they say. There will always be students who borrow a quarter million dollars for a degree that makes them no more employable than they were before it. These examples dominate stories on student loans in a way that portrays them as common.

But they are not.

According to the Federal Reserve, the median student loan balance is $12,800. Seventy-five percent of borrowers owe less than $28,000, 90% owe less than $54,000, and only 3% owe more than $100,000.

Put this in perspective. The median student loan of $12,800 with a 10-year standard payback plan at 3.9% interest (the new rate on government loans Congress approved last week) will generate a payment of $128.99 per month. A graduated 10-year repayment plan would create a monthly payment starting at $72.10. Compare that to the average cell phone bill ($71 per month), the average cable bill ($70), the average monthly entertainment budget for single-person households ($137), the average amount spent on restaurant food ($153 per month), and the average amount spent on alcohol ($33 per month).

Or think of it this way: The average student loan is smaller than the average new car loan.

Or how about this: Statistically, about the same percentage of the population will end up with a net worth above $5 million than will graduate with more than $100,000 of student debt.

Student loans will hurt a lot of people. But you have to keep your gloom in perspective.

Overblown story No. 2: The recovery is being driven by part-time jobs
Take these headlines from the last week:

US Turning Into a Part-time Worker Economy

A disproportionate number of the added jobs were part-time

Jobs report reveals troubling trend in part-time employment

ObamaCare to blame for part-time job surge?

There are hundreds of similar articles.

Each has a hair of truth to them. Part-time jobs have made up a big share of job gains in recent months.

But the Bureau of Labor Statistics' measure of part-time work comes from a small survey of households that is notoriously volatile, rather than the much larger survey of businesses that's used to calculate the monthly jobs figure. We regularly fret over job swings measured in the tens of thousands, but the survey used to measure part-time workers has a margin of error of plus or minus 400,000 per month. It tells you broad trends, but never specific month-to-month levels.

And the broad trend is clear: Workers labeled as part time for economic reasons -- those who want full-time hours but are working less than 35 hours per week -- have been dropping since the recession ended four years ago:

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Every jobs report over the last four years can be summed up in five words: Things are getting better slowly. But that doesn't make a compelling narrative, so we resort to looking for things that aren't really there.

Overblown story No. 3: The pension crisis
Google the words "pension crisis," and you'll be greeted with 16 million articles foretelling utter doom. 

A lot of pension funds are in terrible shape, some beyond repair. Detroit is a good example. But most pension doom is based on two factors, neither of which is permanent.

First, as economist Dean Baker shows in this paper, the main cause of underfunded pensions is -- surprise -- the financial crisis. Pension fund assets took a walloping. If public pensions had earned the risk-free rate of return available in Treasury bonds from 2007 to 2010, most of the current shortfall would disappear.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda. But pointing this out is important because pension funds aren't investing for the next quarter or the next year; they're typically investing for the next several generations. They have time to wait for below-average returns to be offset by above-average results. Last year, I asked Joseph Dear, chief investment officer of CalPERS, the nation's largest pension fund, about his pension's poor performance. He replied:

It's not been so great for the past ten years, but if you look at big cycles in investment and see 10-year returns from equities relatively low, what we've seen after that is a return to better returns, a reversion to the mean. So I think there is a reasonable basis to be confident.

We are coming off one of the worst decades in history for stock and real estate returns. It is intuitive to extrapolate these low returns into the future. But that's a bad assumption. History shows that booms follow busts -- which is what's happening now, with the S&P 500 up 172% in the last four years.

Second, ultra-low interest rates can balloon a pension's liabilities. Pensions use a discount rate typically linked to bond yields to convert future obligations into present dollars. The lower that rate is, the higher a pension's liabilities are. And with interest rates at all-time lows, that discount rate is really, really low.

But as interest rates rise, the opposite can occur, with pension liabilities falling. Here's Joseph Dear again last year:

In a super-low rate environment like we have today, liabilities are definitely bigger. But are interest rates going to stay low? Is the 10-year Treasury going to stay at 1.6% indefinitely? I doubt it. So interest rates will go up and those who [discount on] the yield curve will see liabilities coming down.

This is already happening. As interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds climb from 1.7% earlier this year to 2.6% today, pension liabilities are declining. According to HR Consulting company Mercer, rising bond yields this year have reduced S&P 1500 pension deficits by a combined $150 billion. Pension funding improved from 80% in April to 86% in June. That's the best figure in two years. "If rates got back up another 1.50 percentage points, we'd certainly be in a very good spot from a pension funding perspective," Mercer's Jonathan Barry told The Wall Street Journal.

Chin up
Student loans are a problem, part-time jobs mask the health of the jobs market, and many pension funds are in trouble. But reality is never black and white; it's nuanced and constantly changing. Never let sensational stories get in the way of the bigger picture.

Check back every Tuesday and Friday for Morgan Housel's columns on finance and economics. 

link


Read/Post Comments (13) | Recommend This Article (38)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 06, 2013, at 3:15 PM, hbofbyu wrote:

    The media loves a presenting a crisis and we eat it up.

    Honore de Balzac? I thought it was Billy Joel:

    "The good old days weren't always good and tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems." - Keeping the Faith

  • Report this Comment On August 06, 2013, at 6:04 PM, Mathman6577 wrote:

    I had a student loan from 1983 to 1993 at $92 per month. That's about $183 in today's dollars.

  • Report this Comment On August 07, 2013, at 11:44 AM, Mega wrote:

    Of course, if you ask someone struggling to run a pension fund, they will tell you the problem is the market.

    Pension managers have gotten soft over the last 3 decades. With low interest rates and fairly high valuations, I don't think depending on the market to bail you out is going to work as well in the next 10 years.

  • Report this Comment On August 08, 2013, at 10:57 AM, ElCid16 wrote:

    "Am I supposed to be upset that more people are financing bachelor's degrees at 4% interest than plastic garden gnomes at 25% interest?"

    Graduate student loans, unfortunately, are not 4%. Closer to 8%. Sad day.

    It's tough to justify investing in the stock market (especially at present levels) when you have a mountain of debt at 8%.

  • Report this Comment On August 08, 2013, at 11:55 AM, damilkman wrote:

    I find the comment on pension liabilities linked to interest rates well interesting. The real question I have been asking how do we really know if rates will increase. Just because we say they should does not mean they will. In the case of Japan they have never recovered. As of today it is in the Feds interest to be keep rates low since they are the big borrower. Imagine the deficit if Treasuries were at historical averages.

  • Report this Comment On August 09, 2013, at 9:27 AM, patsfaninpitt wrote:

    Yeah

    Go to the old "small sample" excuse on part time employment.

    The only thing blown out of proportion in this article is the self assumption of intelligence by this author.

  • Report this Comment On August 09, 2013, at 10:53 AM, jordanwi wrote:

    Really good comment, Pat in Pittsburgh. Arguing 101: don't address the points, attack the person making the points.

    Nice work Morgan. You and your fancy numbers and levelheadedness. The 24 hour news cycle would dry up if people would read an article like yours once a week.

  • Report this Comment On August 09, 2013, at 11:11 AM, TMFSymington wrote:

    Best. Picture. Ever.

    Oh, and the article was pretty good, too. Good stuff, Morgan.

  • Report this Comment On August 09, 2013, at 1:48 PM, patsfaninpitt wrote:

    Ahhhh Jordan......

    What's to address?

    The "jobs gains" are Odumbocare part time positions.

    An IQ north of -5 would have allowed anyone to see this would happen.

    What's next? The author coming up with water isn't wet?

    Here's a hint. Employment and participation rates are now so historically low that some part time jobs HAVE to be created.

    Someone needs to produce food stamp purchases, section 8 housing, and Obama phones.

    Even Captain Obvious would figure this out.

  • Report this Comment On August 09, 2013, at 2:13 PM, PanchoAlmeja wrote:

    You are funny! Like a clown

  • Report this Comment On August 09, 2013, at 3:34 PM, patsfaninpitt wrote:

    Spoken like a real expert there, Pancho.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2013, at 11:11 AM, CTobe wrote:

    Detroit at 77% funded is not that bad, but the Chicago plans under 50% are and state plans in Illinois and one at Kentucky at 27% are what I write about in my new book Kentucky Fried Pensions

  • Report this Comment On August 16, 2013, at 5:55 PM, nmrguy wrote:

    That's a great comparison that the average student loan balance is less than the average new car loan. One pays off for a lifetime, the other depreciates. Escalation in cost of higher education is a different issue, but using student loans reasonably to get a useful college degree is still a good decision.

    Much better perspective than listening to a few outrageous anecdotes!

Add your comment.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 2581831, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 10/1/2014 2:01:57 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

Apple's next smart device (warning, it may shock you

Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early-in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!


Advertisement