Why GrafTech International Ltd.'s Shares Jumped Today

Is this meaningful or just another movement?

Feb 27, 2014 at 12:00AM

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE:GTI) are up 12% today after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings.

So what: The quarter wasn't all that strong with revenue down 17% from a year ago to $309 million and a loss of $0.03 per share, both well below estimates. But management said revenue would grow 15% to 20% this year, which implies a range of $1.34 billion to $1.4 billion, well ahead of the estimate of $1.24 billion from Wall Street.  

Now what: This is a classic example of forward guidance meaning more than reported performance because investors are clearly looking past a weak quarter. I will say that management's expectation of $150 million to $180 million in EBITDA is attractive given the company's $1.4 billion market cap and growth rate. I think there's room for the stock to run but management will have to meet or exceed the goals it set today for the stock to do well in 2014.

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Travis Hoium has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of GrafTech International Ltd. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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