Great Stocks the Street Misses

Wall Street analysts do a great job researching and following big, widely held, and actively traded companies such as Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN  ) , Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) , and Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM  ) . That's their job, after all, and 20   or more sell-side analysts follow each one of these names.

You can't blame them for this big-company bias. Those are the stocks that give their firms the most business in both the banking and trading departments.

And while big companies are an integral part of any portfolio, they aren't the stocks individual investors like you and I can buy to generate the highest possible returns over the long run.

From the horse's mouth
In his recent book, Full of Bull, former Wall Street tech analyst Stephen T. McClellan says individual investors can take advantage of the fact that "analysts miss titanic secular shifts." He explains:

Analysts rarely take seriously the emerging companies that are pioneering a new wave. ... They fail to give proper credence to up and coming companies that represent a disruptive market leapfrog. ... Because the status quo is easier, they often miss the boat when a new force emerges.

McClellan recounts how he discounted Microsoft in the 1980s, because he thought it was no different than other start-up software companies of the time, such as Lotus and Borland. "I paid the price for my oversight," he says bluntly.

I'm sure at least a few of us could share a similar story of woe. Perhaps you discounted the surging popularity of energy drinks a few years back and wrote off the likes of Hansen Natural (Nasdaq: HANS  ) and instead backed traditional beverage purveyors like PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP  ) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) .

Another case of expensive oversight
Another example of analyst oversight is the medical-device industry, circa 2005. While entrenched stalwarts such as Medtronic (NYSE: MDT  ) and St. Jude Medical got the coverage, a small robotic surgical equipment company, Intuitive Surgical, was showing signs of promise. Its revenue grew 51% in 2004; it held a near-monopoly in its market niche; and its breakthrough minimally invasive surgical technology was gaining favor among doctors and patients.

Granted, you would have subjected your savings to greater volatility with Intuitive Surgical, and there wasn't (and still isn't) a lot of analyst coverage on it, so you would have had to do a lot of your own research. Taking the "safe" route by investing in larger medical-device companies might have seemed more attractive on a risk-reward basis.

The foresight and extra research, however, would have paid off. Over the past four years, Medtronic and St. Jude Medical have generated negative returns, while Intuitive Surgical has returned 125%, even after recent market volatility.

Leave your comfort zone
Looking for the next ultimate growth stock among those the Street has already discovered is futile. By the time analysts catch on to a revolutionary company, the jig is usually up.

The problem for individual investors is finding these industry-changing (sometimes world-changing) companies before Wall Street does. Fool co-founder David Gardner and his Motley Fool Rule Breakers team have made it their mission to find these stocks early on, then ride them to tremendous returns.

In fact, they first recommended Intuitive Surgical to subscribers in March 2005. They said, "The company is only lightly followed by Wall Street -- just four analysts cover it -- so we have the advantage of getting in before the crowds. We expect the company's future performance to be about as subtle as a brick through a window."

A brick through a window indeed -- that pick has since returned 140% for Rule Breakers subscribers.

The recent market sell-off has left some tremendous growth stocks trading at enticing prices -- Intuitive Surgical among them -- so if you need help finding tomorrow's big winners, you can get a full-access, 30-day trial of Rule Breakers, free of charge. There's no obligation to subscribe. Just click here to get started.

This article was first published Feb. 25, 2008. It has been updated.

Todd Wenning does not endorse throwing bricks through windows, except in the metaphorical sense. He does not own shares of any company mentioned. PepsiCo is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick. Microsoft and Coca-Cola are Inside Value recommendations. Intuitive Surgical and Google are Rule Breakers selections. The Fool's disclosure policy is groundbreaking.


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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 11, 2009, at 3:50 PM, linuxman4001 wrote:

    I have to respectfully disagree. I am not sure you can call it oversight. I mean sure now in hindsight its easy to see who the winners were but who knew in the early days Microsoft was going to be the dominant company? Apple had a more advanced OS product at the time and windows 3.0 was full of bugs? Its obvious now Hansen Natural was a big winner but of all the start up beverage companies how many survive every year? Yes some people did see it, but I know very few people who made a fortune off Microsoft other than employees and people close to the company. Personally I would sleep better at night holding coca-cola in my portfolio rather than hansen. It is true if you can stumble on one of these stocks you can make a huge gain but the same can be said if you get the right cards in a vegas poker game.

  • Report this Comment On February 12, 2009, at 12:16 PM, wolfhounds wrote:

    One only has to look at the returns in the Hidden Gems portfolio (which I left) to discover how few picks have huge returns over long periods. Yes, if you have the money to add amounts to the winners you'll still have to be alert enough to get out when the market turns. Those gains on emerging small caps can evaporate quickly.

    Even though I still hold a few which I believe will emerge as long term winners, most of my portfolio are high quality dividend paying stocks.

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