Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples.
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
- How much growth we can expect.
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Deckers Outdoor
We'll discuss the numbers against some competitors and industry mates: Crocs
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
Deckers has a P/E ratio of 18.0 and a negative EV/FCF ratio over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Deckers has a P/E ratio of 29.4 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 78.6.
A positive one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal (at least in my opinion). For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
Deckers is zero for four on hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.
|
Company |
1-Year P/E |
1-Year EV/FCF |
5-Year P/E |
5-Year EV/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deckers | 18.0 | NM | 29.4 | 78.6 |
| Crocs | 12.4 | 15.0 | 50.6 | 37.2 |
| Wolverine World Wide | 13.2 | >100.0 | 17.3 | 19.8 |
| Under Armour | 42.7 | NM | 66.1 | NM |
Source: S&P Capital IQ; NM = not meaningful because of losses.
Numerically, we've seen how Deckers' valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, Deckers' net income margin has ranged from 11.4% to 14.9%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -4.1% to 15.4%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; margin ranges are combined.
Additionally, over the last five years, Deckers has tallied up five years of positive earnings and three years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Deckers has put up past EPS growth rates of 40%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 19.1%.
Here's how Deckers compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; EPS growth shown.
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
Source: S&P Capital IQ; estimates for EPS growth.
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of Deckers are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at an 18.0 P/E ratio, and all its price multiples are on the high side. Meanwhile, Crocs and Wolverine World Wide at least have some cheaper-looker multiples mixed in.
Deckers has had consistent earnings profitability, but its spending on capital expenditures has kicked a couple of its years of free cash flow into the negative. Wolverine World Wide is the only one of the four to stay profitable on both (barely) for the past five years.
Meanwhile, Deckers has had impressive earnings growth over five years ago, topping its peers who also have had good growth.
Overall, Deckers is trading at expensive multiples but has backed it up operationally. Maybe that's why our CAPS community is mixed in its assessment of Deckers, rating it three stars out of five. But the initial numbers are just a start. If you find Deckers' numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. As a start, add it to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.
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