1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Horizon Pharma?

• Report this Comment On July 02, 2012, at 4:32 PM, bearhater87 wrote:

  PEOPLE LIKE BRIAN PACAMPARA THAT MAKE ME NOT LISTEN TO ANYTHING COMING OUT OF SO CALLED "ANALYSTS" AND "ARTICLE WRITERS" MOUTHS. THESE PEOPLE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN BASHERS HOPING A STOCK WILL DROP SO THEY CAN SCOOP SOME SHARES.BRIAN HAS BEEN PROVEN WRONG TIME AND TIME AGAIN.HZNP WILL BE SUCCESSFUL.PLEASE INVESTORS DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE AND HAVE PATIENCE INSTEAD OF LISTENING TO EMPTY VESSELS LIKE THE SO CALLED "WRITER" OF THIS ARTICLE BRIAN PACAMPARA..LONG HZNP!!!

• Report this Comment On July 02, 2012, at 4:33 PM, bearhater87 wrote:

  PEOPLE LIKE BRIAN PACAMPARA THAT MAKE ME NOT LISTEN TO ANYTHING COMING OUT OF SO CALLED "ANALYSTS" AND "ARTICLE WRITERS" MOUTHS. THESE PEOPLE ARE NOTHING MORE THAN BASHERS HOPING A STOCK WILL DROP SO THEY CAN SCOOP SOME SHARES.BRIAN HAS BEEN PROVEN WRONG TIME AND TIME AGAIN.HZNP WILL BE SUCCESSFUL.PLEASE INVESTORS DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE AND HAVE PATIENCE INSTEAD OF LISTENING TO EMPTY VESSELS LIKE THE SO CALLED "WRITER" OF THIS ARTICLE BRIAN PACAMPARA..LONG HZNP!!!

• Report this Comment On July 02, 2012, at 8:29 PM, cris4344 wrote:

  It is obvious ,you are getting paid real good by the people shorting HZNP, did the same with ARNA you guys caused me to sell my shares and i lost over $5,000. by not waiting for their FDA approval. The Montley Fools obviously knew ARNA would be approved, every one did, except new retail investors like myself. Iwas under the impresion that The Montley Fools was an honest service but now i know better. There are tons of stocks going up like crazy,on which, you guys have put a one star rating and many others on which ayou guys have a 5 star rating not going any where. it is obvious , your rating system does not work and that is why i cancelled my subscription to your service.

• Report this Comment On July 06, 2012, at 8:01 PM, StockRuckus wrote:

  Brian, I'm rather unimpressed with the apparent lack of due diligence that you have presented in this article. Are you omitting data on purpose, believe it to be irrelevant, or truly do not know the important details at play here?

  Regardless, it does appear that you have a bit of an agenda here. Certainly you must realize that articles such as this put your entire credibility at risk, both as a columnist and as an investor's data source. Your incomplete content and poorly supported assertions leaves TMF readers to conclude that you are stupid, dishonest, or lazy at best.

  I am troubled by a few highly suggestive statements and by a glaring omission. Specifically, you refer to Cowen's analyst as having a "bold prediction" of "2016 revenues of [$258 million] from Duexis and [$106 million] from Lodotra". You have not offered any explanation to support your claim that this is a bold statement. 2016 is not just around the corner, it is 3.5 years away! This assertion needs something to back it up. Duexis was approved April 2011, so this horse is really just out of the gate, albeit perhaps a slow start.

  A better rebuttal against Cowen's "bold statement" could be to suggest that prescribers may prefer to have their patients take OTC Famotidine (Pepcid) 20mg with ibuprofen 800mg in lieu of a more expensive and proprietary biosimilar (or combined generics) such as Duexis and Lodotra.

  Secondarily, you clearly state that, "Lodotra hasn't even been approved yet." This is a bold faced lie! While Lototra has not approved by the FDA here in the USA, it has been approved by 16 European countries since June 2010. Certainly you must know better than to imply that American revenue is the only profit worth accounting for. Furthermore, you should know better than to imply that the PDUFA date of July 26, 2012 represents Lodotra's first regulatory approval.

  I completely agree with your final claim that, "Both Duexis and Lodotra seem to me to be superfluous anti-inflammatory drugs facing heavy competition from established generics". Lodotra is a fancy buffered Prednisone for time released sleep-cycle cytokine inhibition, nothing more. Folks, set your alarm for midnight, pop an ole fashion Prednisone on the cheap and go back to sleep! Having said that, I do not have any of the conditions that these drugs treat, so its not my problem.

  Finally, HZNP stock has run up huge in advance of the FDA decision. It is a tough to even view the PDUFA date as a true binary event anymore. How much more upside can there be? Holding onto these gains into the FDA decision is just asking for a pork slaughter fest. This company may be near term fully valued with an assumed approval already baked into the stock. It seems a reasonable assumption with 2 years of advance European guinea pig data already in the history books, (not to mention 50+ years of data on Prednisone).

  Next week, I plan to buy the $7.5 Aug 12 Puts then watch its value go up as we see profit taking in HZNP stock pre FDA decision. I then intend to sell the short position ahead of the FDA as well. For those who are dedicated HZNP bulls, consider your risk/benefit at this point.

  Brian, to me the craziest part of all is how all my data points, had you bothered to articulate them, would actually support your final thesis. Ultimately, I agree with your end recommendation. This leads me to conclude that regardless of your motives, you must simply be incompetent or have too much other material on your plate to keep track of. I would be embarrassed to publish such an article as yours.

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