Are Shorts Milking American Dairy?

At Fool.com, we believe in buying great companies for the long term. However, not every company commands a fair price, and many trade for far more than they're actually worth.

In these situations, investors actually have a chance to benefit from a stock's plunge. When shorting a stock, an investor bets that its price will go down and profits from any move down. The practice is risky, inviting unlimited losses while providing only limited upside. However, shorting wildly overvalued companies can also help balance your portfolio against the wild market swings we've seen in previous years.

To find shorting candidates, we screened for stocks with a high percentage of their publicly traded shares sold short. One such stock is American Dairy (NYSE: ADY), with a current short interest of 21.6%. That's pretty high, but let's see how it compares with other companies in its industry:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

We consider short interest greater than 5% to be a warning sign. While plenty of great companies can carry high short interest, that red flag is your invitation to dig for troubling information that the company's buyers might be missing. In American Dairy's case, this small Chinese dairy producer -- yup, American Dairy is Chinese, which might shock you -- is well above the short level of its larger, more diversified peers.

When evaluating short candidates, start by assessing their near-term financial health. To check on American Dairy's immediate health, we looked at its current ratio, which simply divides its current assets by its current liabilities. The more assets a company has -- cash, inventory, and accounts receivable, among others -- the more easily it should be able to pay off its obligations in times of financial distress.

American Dairy's ratio in this category is a bit shaky, standing at 0.9. We look for current ratios greater than 1.0, meaning that a company could use its current assets to immediately fund liabilities, if it had to. Just remember that such situations are rare, and that companies can also raise money with other assets if need be. It's best to dig into American Dairy's filings to see whether the company faces any short-term liquidity challenges.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Once we've assessed a company's short-term financial health, next we determine whether it's overstating its earnings. Earnings are meant to show a smoothed-out picture of a company's profit potential over time. However, they're prone to various assumptions and manipulations. Companies can aggressively recognize revenue, or show high earnings even while they pour excessive amounts of cash into capital spending that is slowly accounted for over time.

For this reason, it's best to compare free cash flow with earnings. Free cash flow accounts for the actual cash flowing out of or into a business, and then subtracts out actual capital expenditure costs over a given period of time. In the past 12 months, American Dairy's cash flow has been minus $64.05 million while its earnings were minus $30.88 million.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

American Dairy's free cash flow has trailed earnings on average. In this case, it's a good idea to open up company filings and explore what's causing this cash flow lag. If free cash flow is showing a consistent trend of underperforming earnings, that could mean the company is overvalued according to its stated earnings. Or it might be recognizing earnings too aggressively, which could lead to free cash flow declines in the future. In American Dairy's case, not only is cash flow lagging, but earnings have crashed into the red also. The company's accounts receivable are continually on the rise and it faces heavy capital spending loads. There's not a lot to like about the cash flow picture at American Dairy.

One last consideration for shorting a company is valuation. Excellent companies often trade for prices that aren't justified by their business's long-term outlook. Think back to the dot-com bubble: While technology companies like Amazon.com would eventually produce large profits, at the time, they lacked business models and future earnings streams to justify their mammoth market capitalizations.

The PEG ratio is a simple measure of whether a company is excessively valued. It compares a company's P/E ratio to its estimated growth rate. We compared American Dairy's expected P/E ratio of the next 12 months relative to its five-year estimated growth rate. As an investor, you'd look for companies trading at P/Es less than their growth rate. As seen in the table below, American Dairy trades at PEG ratio of 0.4.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

With a PEG ratio of less than 1.0, American Dairy looks attractively valued relative to its expected growth. However, keep in mind that growth predictions for small caps are known to be quite volatile. Also, as illustrated above, the company's earnings have historically been well above cash flow. To some extent, that's to be expected from a small, growing company, but several red flags can be seen in American Dairy's financial statements.

The long road to superior shorting
Identifying good short candidates requires diligent research. More importantly, you've got to know where to dig into a company's financial statements. While the measures we showed above are a great start in searching for shorting candidates, red flags like accelerating revenue recognition, aggressive acquisitions to hide underlying financial weakness, and changes in reporting methods can only be spotted by carefully analyzing the notes companies bury deep in their filings.

Finding these opportunities requires skill, but you can do it. That's why John Del Vecchio, CFA, a forensic accountant and The Motley Fool's shorting specialist, put together a detailed report that shows you how to spot five serious red flags that can help you detect time bombs in your portfolio and lead you to the next big short. You can get the entire report free by clicking here or by entering your email address in the box below.