The Next Home Run Stock

I assume that you, like everyone and his Aunt Avis, would love to find the next Microsoft -- to dig out the market's best Hidden Gems. Back in January 1990, Microsoft traded at a split- and dividend-adjusted $0.56 per share. Today, even after its recent drop, the stock is up around $23. That's an increase of 41 times for long-term investors. Put another way, $5,000 invested in Microsoft in 1990 is worth $205,000 today.

Of course, you'd love to buy the next Microsoft.

But you wouldn't want to take on extraordinary risk, right?

I think you're smart to think that way. And so does a long list of great money managers -- from Peter Lynch to Seth Klarman, Jean-Marie Eveillard to Charles Royce. They all search for small companies with a mixture of sales and free cash flow growth, superior returns on invested capital, heavy insider ownership, and healthy assets -- all at a reasonable price.

Born to be the best
But remember, companies like Microsoft typically display excellent financials from the day they hit the markets. Microsoft was never a penny stock (again, that 56 cents in January 1990 is split-adjusted). It didn't hype itself in press releases, nor did management make outlandish promises to investors.

Companies like Microsoft are run conservatively by executives who own large positions themselves. They're run to sustain profit growth indefinitely. That's in contrast to the whisper-stock party tips that destroy wealth over time.

Contrary to popular perception, to invest in the best small caps, you need not assume great risk.

And finding these hidden gems doesn't involve some desperate dig through barn-sized haystacks in search of the elusive platinum needle. The public markets feature plenty of promising smaller companies run successfully by founders with large personal stakes in the business. In fact, hidden gems thrive in every industry -- technology, finance, leisure, medicine, retail, and beyond. Take a look at these seven great investments from 1990 to 2006.

Jan. 1990*

May 2006

Return on Investment

Dell (Nasdaq: DELL  )

$0.05

$25

500 times

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY  )

$0.25

$56

224 times

Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN  )

$0.97

$66

68 times

Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT  )

$0.42

$18

43 times

Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW  )

$0.27

$17

65 times

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW  )

$1.53

$62

40 times

Medtronic (NYSE: MDT  )

$1.68

$48

28 times

*All prices split-adjusted.

Note first that this group reflects a broad variety of sectors. Some are familiar consumer brands, while others -- for example, Medtronic and Applied Materials -- are to this day largely unknown on Main Street. But each was a small cap back in 1990. Not only weren't they industry stalwarts, but they were also largely unknown to consumers and investors. Companies like Charles Schwab and Dell and Lowe's -- household names today -- had yet to attract Wall Street analysts and big institutional investors.

And their stock prices reflected that. These sorts of opportunities exist today.

The next big thing
The 20-baggers to 700-baggers of the next 15 years are out there right now, with their fuses lit and a wide-open sky above them. But they aren't Charles Schwab. And they aren't Amgen. And they aren't Microsoft. They're companies not yet covered by 39 analysts.

They are companies with founding leadership, or at least insider ownership north of 15%. Companies without debt concerns. Companies that generate excess cash from their operations. Companies that function without any real reliance on Wall Street for financing or table-pounding "strong buy" ratings.

I know it sounds contrary, but I want you to consider the fact that many of these small businesses offer rewards that substantially exceed the risks of owning them. How could a small company be less risky than a larger one? Well, the mere fact that even the best-run small companies are underfollowed on Wall Street creates pricing inefficiencies that strongly favor long-term investors.

Does that sound possible? Does it sound logical? It's certainly contrary.

The small-cap risk myth
We're accustomed to thinking that small-cap stocks must be speculations. They must be riskier than big, friendly corporate names that have always seemed to be there for us. But are they? In the best small-cap stocks, you'll find the following features that mitigate the risk of owning them:

  1. Founders with large personal stakes
  2. Financial statements that are easy to read
  3. A solid asset base with little or no debt
  4. Price ratios that significantly undershoot growth rates of free cash flow
  5. Dominant positioning in a profitable niche
  6. Plenty of room to grow

If you're inclined to think that every small-cap stock is doomed to get stomped out by a larger competitor, I ask you to return to my list above. They all rose up from obscurity through sound financial management and shareholder-friendly practices. The free markets provided them plenty of maneuvering room. And the free markets today provide plenty of competitive space for small companies led by numbers-driven founders whose wealth will grow over the next 15 years based principally on the performance of their stock.

But because not every small company is poised for enduring success, I evaluate more than 100 of the 3,000-plus small-cap stocks -- all in search of one great Hidden Gems recommendation each month. As for the others, I find that 90% are too richly valued or too speculative given the underlying business. But that remaining 10% leaves us with hundreds of small caps that will beat the market and dozens that will rise more than 20 times in value over the next 15 years.

You can read about this, and all our Hidden Gems recommendations now, by signing up for a 30-day free trial here. There is no obligation to subscribe. You have my word.

This article was first published on Sept. 24, 2003. It has been updated.

Tom Gardner,co-founder of The Motley Fool, owns shares of Microsoft. Microsoft and Dell are Inside Value recommendations. Dell, Best Buy, and Charles Schwab are Stock Advisor recommendations. The Fool isinvestors writing for investors.


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