4-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: First Marblehead

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 165,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, student loan administrator First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at First Marblehead's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

First Marblehead facts

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 94% of the 2,829 members who have rated First Marblehead believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bulls include All-Stars kmote and cdulan, both of whom are ranked in the top 20% of our community.

A few months ago, kmote kindly updated Fools on First Marblehead's regulatory worries: "Govt lifted their cease and desist order. They are beginning to get things rolling again by hiring staff."

About a year ago, the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision ordered First Marblehead's Union Federal banking unit to halt operations, as its loan portfolio was concentrated too highly in private education loans. Thanks to the announced sale of those student loans back in October, however, Union Federal finally got the go-ahead in March to get back to business.

But First Marblehead still has to compete with education finance king SLM and the likes of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, which both continue to provide fee-based origination and servicing activities. Those financial giants have the scale to possibly, as First Marblehead's 10-K warns, "adopt more aggressive pricing policies in order to attract potential clients."

Nevertheless, All-Stars such as cdulan believe First Marblehead's expertise in the field should allow it to thrive:

The government lifted the cease and desist order now that they sold off their complete student loan portfolio. So now they can get back into the business in a much better market climate than before. ...

It is impossible to believe that the private student loan securitization market is permanently impaired. There is plenty of supply of private student loans to be made out there. There is plenty of demand for it from investors due are strict default laws on student loans. [First Marblehead's] servicing capabilities have proven to decrease default rates and increase recovery rates, crucial for student loan securitization investment returns.

So I think there is a market for them, it just has not reemerged yet. But I am confident it will.

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