Deepwater oil driller Transocean
1. Demand for its services: Easy-to-access oil is probably beginning to run out, yet the world, and the U.S. in particular, continues to have an almost insatiable demand for the gooey stuff. Deepwater areas such as the Gulf of Mexico or off the coast of Brazil, where Petrobras
2. The majority of its fleet is outside the Gulf: The company operates 138 offshore drilling rigs, with only 12 in the Gulf of Mexico, not counting the sunken Deepwater Horizon. If the U.S. Department of the Interior is successful in imposing a moratorium on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, these rigs will move out and be put to work elsewhere. The revenue loss from any idle rigs in the Gulf likely won't be permanent. BHP Billiton
3. Growth expectations are too low at current prices: Here's a quick valuation: Taking just 60% of the last four quarters' free cash flow total, to reflect a possible drop in dayrates and liability risk, last night's closing price has just 6.6% growth priced in for the next five years, followed by 3.3% for five years, and 2.5% forever after that, using a somewhat skeptical 14% discount rate. Using a 10.5% "opportunity cost" discount rate -- that is, assuming the S&P 500's historical long-term growth rate is the "next best opportunity" -- the growth rates priced in are 2.1% for five years, followed by 1% for five years, and then zero growth after that. Given Transocean's history, pricing power, and position in the industry, I think those growth rates are too pessimistic.
Yes, there are risks in buying shares today. Chief among these are Transocean's potential liability for some of the Gulf of Mexico disaster and increased regulation, which would raise costs. However, the company's contracts have broad indemnity clauses that should protect Transocean, and BP has publicly accepted the responsibility of controlling the well, the cleanup efforts, and the economic damage associated with those efforts. For its increased costs, Transocean should be able to pass most, if not all, of those costs on to its customers, who will pass it on to their customers, leading to a rise in the price of oil. At current prices, I think there is enough of a margin of safety built in to handle those risks.
Warren Buffett has said that we pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. Right now, there is no cheery consensus surrounding the future of Transocean. I think that gives investors with a horizon of more than a year a significant opportunity and I have been taking advantage of that. You should consider doing the same.