Don't Buy These Top-Performing Investments

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After the carnage we endured in the market last year, investors are eager to get their portfolios and their dreams of retirement back on track. Unfortunately, if history is any guide, many of them will go about it exactly the wrong way -- by chasing performance.

While it may seem like an easy fix to identify which stocks or segments of the market have been outperforming lately, and throw your money at them in the hopes that they'll continue their winning ways, this is a surefire way of sandbagging your portfolio.

Chasing one's tail
Let's examine which investments have landed at the top of the charts so far in 2009. According to the Morningstar Principia database, the following five funds are all at the top of the class:

Fund

Return*

ProFunds UltraSector Mobile Telecomm (WCPIX)

94.6%

ProFunds UltraLatin America (UBPIX)

88.4%

JP Morgan Russia (JRUAX)

83.7%

Dreyfus Emerging Asia (DEAAX)

83.5%

Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: EDC)

72.4%

*Performance year to date through May 31, 2009.

Wow! Those are some pretty hefty returns. But before you go imagining ways to fit one of these highfliers into your portfolio, take a closer look at each of these funds. You'll find several reasons why they aren't appropriate for most investors.

First of all, the two ProFunds offerings and the Direxion exchange-traded fund are leveraged funds, which offer investors a multiple of the index the funds are tracking. The ProFunds offer 150% and 200% of their respective indexes, while the Direxion fund offers 300% of the daily return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index! To me, that sounds more like gambling than investing.

In addition, most of these options are very narrowly focused, investing in just one industry or one emerging economy, like JP Morgan Russia. It's no surprise that funds like these land at the top of the performance charts -- they're also the most likely to land at the bottom of the charts next year.

These risky, narrow funds are highly volatile. In fact, of the four of these funds that were in existence in 2008, each of them lost between 61% and 89% last year alone! Most investors don't have any need for narrowly focused investments like these. Fools should stick to well-diversified, broad-market options instead.

While the Dreyfus fund invests more broadly across emerging markets, it is highly concentrated, with more than 79% of assets in just three sectors, and 55% allocated to two countries. That means concentrated bets, which could sink the fund if they don't pan out. Furthermore, the fund is relatively new, with less than two years of a track record. That's a bit too soon to make a solid judgment call on the managers' long-term skills.

Lastly, as is typically the case with highly specialized funds, each of these top performers is ridiculously expensive. Whereas the average mutual fund sports a 1.3% net expense ratio, these chart-toppers range in price from 1.66% to 2%. The Direxion ETF is slightly cheaper at 0.75%, but that's still much higher than the cost of the average exchange-traded fund! That's more than any investor should be willing to pay for the privilege of owning any fund, no matter how outsized the gains may be in any short-term period.

The cost of folly
While it can be incredibly tempting to chase returns, keeping a steady head as trends come and go is one of the key attributes of successful long-term investors. In fact, a study performed by the Financial Research Corp. (FRC) found that on a rolling return basis from January 1990 through March 2000, the average mutual fund's mean three-year return was 10.92%, while the average fund investor gained only 8.7% over the same period. The study attributes the difference to investors' habit of chasing performance, as measured by rising redemption rates and shorter holding periods.

A better way
So what does this all mean? Well, first of all, if you want to win at the investment game, you've got to move beyond short-term thinking. A longer-term, buy-and-hold focus is essential. You've got to look past the temporary ups and downs of the market and keep the long-run trajectory in mind.

Secondly, if you're shopping for mutual funds, make sure you're not using past performance as your sole criteria for selection. While it is perfectly OK to take longer-term performance into account, I would argue that it's more important to first find a fund with an experienced, long-tenured manager, low expenses, a consistent investment history, and solid performance in both good and bad environments. Once you've done that, see how it stacks up against its competitors' track records.

If exchange-traded funds tickle your fancy, make sure you stick to broad-market, well-diversified options like Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (NYSE: VTI), iShares S&P 500 (NYSE: IVV), or iShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE: IWM). And whatever you do, make sure you're not overpaying for ETFs -- buy the cheapest funds you can find that get the job done.

Of course, if you consider yourself a stock jockey, there's no better place to get investment ideas than from some of the brightest names in the business. For example, top manager Chris Davis of Selected American Shares (SLADX) is loading up on health-care picks like Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) and Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (NYSE: LH), as well as some names in the battered financial sector like Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B).

To get more of the inside scoop on how to invest your retirement-minded dollars, be sure to check out the Fool's Rule Your Retirement service. With your free 30-day trial, you will get access to a wealth of insider tips and hints to meet your retirement goals with plenty of room to spare.

There are worthwhile ways of rebuilding your portfolio, but chasing performance isn't one of them. By choosing the right investments and sticking with them for the long run, you'll be ahead of the pack, instead of chasing others.

Already subscribe to Rule Your Retirement? Log in at the top of this page.

This article was originally published on June 18, 2009. It has been updated.

Amanda Kish heads up the Fool's Champion Funds newsletter service. Berkshire Hathaway and Lab Corp. are Motley Fool Stock Advisor choices. Berkshire Hathaway is also an Inside Value pick. The Motley Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. The Fool's disclosure policy can't decide whether it'd rather be the chaser or the chasee.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 15, 2009, at 9:40 PM, grouchley wrote:

    I don't agree at all with your article.

    If you have done your homework and believe that the market is headed higher then why settle for 1x market performance.

    Risky is owning individual stocks that can fail at anytime , be naked shorted into the ground or manipulated like dendron a couple of months ago.

    Why spend hours researching companies that may or may not be providing correct information when I can simply buy triples up or down depending on short or medium term sentiment or momentum trade the total market. If you want to trade the Russle 2000 then go with TNA or TZA.

    And by the way to me risk seems to be health care now because of all the uncertainty with Obamah's plans.

  • Report this Comment On July 20, 2009, at 9:19 PM, sutlage wrote:

    We should not buy these fund because "we read it on fools" web site. If you want to write something against leveraged funds then write something which has some substance e.g. if the companies are not reliable or it is going to collapse or whatever.

    To me these funds are a lot better than those companies with immaginary profits,

  • Report this Comment On July 21, 2009, at 8:11 AM, eflotte wrote:

    This is a great presciption for underperformance.

    Saying emerging markets will be down next year (while IVV will be up) because they did well this year is complete nonsense. It does not take into account the market disaster we just went through.

    Lets check back in 3-5 years and see what has done better - emerging markets (UBPIX, DEAAX, EDC) or the US (VTI, MDT, SLDAX).

  • Report this Comment On July 31, 2009, at 7:21 PM, soccerdad002 wrote:

    I believe the buy and hold philosophy died in 08 along with everyone's retirement accounts. Why not chase preformance with solid stop loss points

  • Report this Comment On July 31, 2009, at 8:16 PM, Tedvandyken wrote:

    I can't make sense of your analysis....

    I could just as well invest hundreds of hours learning how to do option plays and stay on top of it every minute of every day...

    or... I could hire a personal financial administrator to do the same....

    or... what do you know.... buy the ETF that has professionals doing the same thing!!!

    Why are you so concerned about this?

    Do these ETFs cut into your profit?

    I started for Uniphase in 1989. Since I started and the peak the stock value went up by 1600 times, however the stock that I purchased at the peak is pretty much worthless today. Would you ban the general public from purchasing JDSU???

    If you purchased $1000 worth of JDSU at the peak it would be worth about $4.16 today. If, however you would have invested that into premium beer at $6.00 per six pack, and drank the beer you would have left $50 today for the recycling of the bottles.

    I like having an ETF that acts like I am investing in Calls or Puts, while leaving the buying and selling of those to professionals.

    If I can live with JDSU I can hande EDC or TYH.

    Best Regards,

    Ted Van Dyken

    PS... You should instead be lobbying against the high GSA levels of publicly traded companies and the mutual funds that protect upper management and boards of directors.

  • Report this Comment On July 31, 2009, at 9:00 PM, alexxlea wrote:

    To deter your readers from the advantage of leverage is just plain wrong. Maximum market returns would have been achieved with leverage a little under 3x for the S&P holding through the course of its existance.

    And here's food for thought. If the underlying moves 1% a day, and the 3x moves 3% a day, and you set a 1% trailing stop on a random bull or bear fund every day, what happens?

    You make tons of money. The stops get hit faster, but the profit potential is greatly increased. And if your win ratio doesn't completely suck then your trades are positive on average.

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